Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
247 FXUS62 KKEY 251754 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1254 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warmer than usual temperatures will persist today into tomorrow. Dew points will remain in the lower 70s through this period. -A potent cold front is expected to race through the Florida Keys late Monday. Winds will clock northwest to north and freshen considerably. Near gale breezes will be possible. -The cold air mass behind the front along with one, possibly two, reinforcing front(s), have a good chance of keeping temperatures below normal for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots will become southerly and 5 to 10 knots tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 A surface ridge stretching west southwestward across the peninsula is driving light easterly breezes, along with warm and humid conditions across the Keys this morning. While the lower level ridge is aligned across Cuba and driving confluent flow across the far southeastern Gulf, broad ridging through the mid and upper levels and associated stable conditions and dry air aloft has helped to minimize shower activity across the island chain. Over the next couple of days, the surface ridge will retreat eastward into the Atlantic as a prefrontal trough descends into the eastern Gulf. As a result, light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will relax and gradually clock south then southwesterly. This flow will ensure warm and humid conditions through this period. Rain chances will be slim at best. The weather will take a sharp turn towards the cool/cold side early next week. The previously mentioned prefrontal trough will swing across South Florida on Monday, followed by a strong cold front late Monday and Monday night. Expect westerly breezes to strengthen modestly on Monday then surge out of the northwest to north Monday night. Boundary layer moisture will be ample ahead of the front. However, low level confluence will be quite limited and upper level support will remain off to the north. This will limit the front`s shower potential. High pressure expanding southeastward through the southeastern United States, along with day time heating, will help to drive down winds on Tuesday. The incoming cold airmass will push overnight lows into the 50s, recovering only into the 60s during the day. The cold stretch may last well through the week as guidance is becoming increasingly insistent that a series of high cells will pour southwards across the eastern United States. This will drive a couple of reinforcing fronts through the Keys. The first front is expected Wednesday night, followed by the second Saturday night. Under this scenario, breezes will back northerly and freshen modestly with each front and maintain a steady stream of cool air. With that said, there has been some run to run and model to model variance in the medium and long range periods. For now will keep the high and low forecast near the ensemble means, which is 5 to 10 degrees below climatological norms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease in the Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, fresh to moderate breezes today will trend downwards and clock southerly tonight as an Atlantic ridge retreats eastward and a prefrontal trough advances into the eastern Gulf. The tail end of a prefrontal trough will swing through South Florida and the Keys, followed by a strong cold front. Expect winds to strengthen modestly on Monday before surging considerably in wake of the front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required beginning Monday and Monday night. Winds are expected to relax substantially on Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward through the southeast and across Florida. Another somewhat weaker wind surge is becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night as a reinforcing cold front rolls southward across the area. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest