Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
188 FXUS62 KKEY 020836 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 436 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A generally slow morning is underway across the Florida Keys. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts a few lines of shallow cumulus drifting west through the Straits of Florida and lingering just south of the island chain. KBYX radar detects a few isolated shallow showers bubbling in association with these boundaries with a small cluster approaching the south coast of the eastern Lower Keys. Otherwise, clear skies are abundant across our area. Light to gentle easterly breezes are reported along the Reef after having notably slackened a few knots from yesterday evening. Current temperatures across our island communities are reporting in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints still in the mid to upper 70s. The short term forecast remains very similar to the last few days. A weak Atlantic surface ridge nosed over South Florida continues to hold the reigns for our sensible weather. This feature will continue to promote light to gentle east to southeast breezes throughout this weekend. One thing that is a little different from yesterday is where drier air is located. CIMSS MIMIC PW shows that the Keys are right along a gradient in PW values with drier air found north of the island chain and more moist air in the Florida Straits. This likely explains why the showers we currently see are developing more in the south side of our CWA rather than in the Gulf. Indeed, yesterday evening`s 00z balloon sounding had a somewhat middling PW notating a similar environment to what moisture content is observed, but also a decent amount of instability. The real challenge for convective development comes with a lack of organized lift, especially with breezes expected to lull a bit more throughout today. Opted to keep dime PoPs for today and tonight, aiming just above guidance as the atmosphere has demonstrated the ability to create at least a few showers nearby already. Things will start to get more interesting moving into the work week. The surface ridge will stay in place as a mid latitude system spins off the Eastern Seaboard into the Atlantic. Undulations of moisture along weak inverted troughing will push into our area along the ridge`s southern periphery with rain chances starting to return to near normal later on Monday. A weak tropical wave will follow in by the middle of the week bringing a healthy dose of tropical moisture and upper level conditions conducive for deep convective development. Current numerical guidance is targeting Wednesday for the timing of this wave with rain and thunder chances creeping higher than yesterday`s runs. Opted to go with chance PoPs and thunder for then considering the set up. A wet pattern looks to set up as a result with rain chances remaining above normal as we head into next weekend. Uncertainty will of course exist that far out, but we will continue to refine our numbers in the coming days. && .MARINE... Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic surface ridge will remain nosed over South Florida for the next few days. This will promote generally light east to southeasterly breezes. Shifts in this feature`s exact position through the forecast period will result in bouts of some days of fresher breezes than others. A weak tropical wave is expected to encroach the Keys waters by the midweek resulting in a period of more unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Shower activity is not expected to impact either terminal at this time, so no mention of VCSH. Near surface winds will continue to be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1923, more than an inch of rain fell in 22 minutes, flooding streets and sidewalks. The official total for the day was 1.58" per our climate records for Key West. Key West precipitation records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 82 92 83 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 90 82 90 83 / 10 10 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest