Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
606 FXUS62 KKEY 011750 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1250 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain chances near nil expected through the end of the week. -Coldest air of the season so far! Tonight`s lows are expected to be in the lower 50s in the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. -A slow moderating trend is expected to begin on Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s during the day with overnight lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH. CIGs cleared at EYW, but occasional CIGs between FL040 and FL050 are possible. Breezes shifted northeast before noon, and will slacken a bit tonight. An overnight wind surge may nudge winds up and cause slight veering to the northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate northwest to north breezes will prevail this afternoon before slackening rapidly heading into the afternoon hours. High pressure currently over the western Gulf moves over Florida and the Florida Keys through the end of the week. This will promote a period of light and variable breezes. A weak front is expected to pass through the Key sometime Sunday with a return of northerly breezes. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1984, the daily record low temperature of 49F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026 High pressure over the western Gulf to the south of Louisiana this morning will continue to slowly move to the east to southeast through Saturday. As it does so, it will slowly weaken. Due to the slow movement of the high, the northwest to north flow will linger into tonight before breezes start to shift to the northeast. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected to continue through around 9-11 am this morning due to the nocturnal land breeze surge. However, this will mainly be felt across the nearshore and offshore waters of the Middle and Upper Keys. As we approach the weekend, the high will move directly overhead which will result in a period of light to variable breezes. After one more cool day, temperatures will start to slowly rebound beginning Friday with highs getting back towards 70 degrees, though, overnight lows will still remain quite cool. This will especially be the case in the Upper Keys where overnight lows are still anticipated to fall into the 50s through Friday night. Since the winds diminish after this morning, this will lead to the potential for radiational cooling overnight, especially across the larger islands. Therefore, since we have a cool and dry air mass in place, it will still be able to cool quite easily overnight. Also, the dew points won`t start to increase until the weekend. Temperatures rise back to near normal over the weekend which is highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys through the period leading to nil rain chances through Saturday. Confidence is starting to increase for a subtle front to press through the Keys sometime Saturday night or Sunday. This front may more result in just a wind shift rather than a dip in the dew points. In addition, moisture will try and pool ahead of the front. Therefore, slight chance of showers (10%) return to the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will dominate the eastern United States behind the front as it moves out into the Atlantic by mid week. This will result in mainly a northeast to east flow through the extended. Dry air will remain across the Keys behind the front leading to nil rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 68 61 69 62 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 65 59 68 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest