Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
925 FXUS62 KKEY 040852 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 452 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Widely scattered showers, with occasional embedded thunderstorms have developed in the CWA overnight and are continuing into this morning. A majority of the activity has been in the distant Straits and the deep Gulf, leaving the island chain dry. MIMIC Precipitable Water depicts undulations of moisture moving into our area. This paired with a slight overnight surge in winds (currently being recorded along the Reef at 10 to 15 knots) has aided in the increase in coverage early this morning. For today, this surge is expected to slacken, resulting in light to gentle breezes for the remainder of day and into tonight. Although shower activity is plentiful in our distant waters, the island chain is expected to remain at a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the day. A weak tropical wave is forecast to move through the Florida Keys by midweek, enhancing deep-layer moisture and contributing to increased atmospheric instability across our area. This wave will favor an unsettled weather pattern, resulting in an uptick in convective activity from midweek to the approaching weekend. Outside of convection, surface winds are anticipated to remain generally light to gentle breezes, occasionally reaching a moderate breeze in overnight surges. For now, PoPs are being held at 40-50%, for the more active periods. However, adjustments may be necessary in future forecast cycles as confidence improves and exact timing of the tropical wave becomes more clear. These elevated rain chances will likely persist into the early weekend, with the continued moisture and instability parks in the area. Stay tuned for any updates. && .MARINE... Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak Atlantic surface ridge will remain nosed over South Florida through Tuesday night promoting light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes. A weak tropical wave is expected to move over the Keys waters by the midweek resulting in a period of more unsettled weather, while breezes remain light to gentle. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Widely scattered stray showers will wax and wane around the Keys especially this morning but uncertainty in exact location and timing of development will keep mention out of either TAF unless required. Near surface winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at near 10 knots early, then slackening to 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day In 2023, the daily record high temperature of 94F was recorded in Key West. Key West temperature records date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest