Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
414 FXUS62 KKEY 100233 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1033 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A wet and increasingly thundery weather pattern taking shape for tonight through Friday night, with the chance for measurable rainfall around 80%. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue into the weekend. -Drier air will filter in over the course of the weekend, offering the first taste of Florida Fall to the Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A non tropical surface low is centered over western Cuba. This low has contributed to near record precipitable water and a broad cyclonic wind field across the Keys area. Consequently, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms have been present across the Keys and surrounding waters through the evening. The low over Cuba will remain nearly stationary overnight, but expand northeastward into the Keys. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will amplify over Florida and the eastern Gulf. Consequently, expect winds to trend downwards, remaining cyclonic. The expected increase in upper level support is expected to increase already considerable convective activity across the Keys and surrounding waters. Will maintain categorical rain chances with a chance for thunderstorms for the overnight. Expect rain cooling and outflow boundaries to dictate overnight lows for most locations, settling in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points will be in the mid 70s. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters due to the continuing King tide. Expect localized coastal flooding to be exacerbated by periodic heavy rainfall. Motorists should assume that any standing water is at least brackish. && .MARINE... Issued at 1006 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A weak surface low will remain centered over western Cuba overnight. The Keys will remain well within this low`s cyclonic flow. This along with considerable deep layered moisture and modest instability will contribute to numerous to widespread shower activity with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A very wet pattern will remain dug in across the Keys through the overnight period. As a result, periods of sub VFR conditions are likely. Away from convective influences, surface winds will be light to gentle out of the east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest