Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
157 FXUS62 KKEY 060806 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 406 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A weak surface through lower level trough remains stuck in the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. This trough is being sustained by a number of southern stream short wave troughs aloft rounding the semi permanent mid latitude trough rooted over eastern North America. An associated broad band of enhanced deep layered moisture remains strung across the Florida Peninsula and the Keys. Convective activity in our vicinity are in a down phase this morning with earlier activity raining out far to the east and new activity sprouting west of the Dry Tortugas. The previously mentioned lower trough will remain stationary through the weekend and well into next week. This will result in the band of high moisture remaining across our area. In addition, the steering flow will be weak and at times, poorly defined. This along with a lack of ridging at any level should result in above normal rain chances through this period with the highest chances early. Surface winds will be light and tend south to southwest, but periods of variability are likely. The Atlantic ridge tries to swing northwestward into Florida before mid week. However, latest guidance suggests its efforts will be cut short by a southern stream trough amplifying over the Gulf. To complicate things, the GFS indicates an inverted trough will also ride westward across our area, bringing its own slug of enhanced moisture and confluence. The weakness of synoptic forcing through the mid and long range is resulting in considerable uncertainty. For now will maintain high chance PoPs with near normal temperatures and moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A weak surface low will loiter in the eastern Gulf through the weekend and into next week. Associated high moisture levels, along with bouts of convective forcing and a rather weak steering flow will result in continued above normal rain chances. Meanwhile, an Atlantic ridge will remain off to our east and southeast. As a result, winds will remain generally light out of the south to southwest. Winds will likely turn variable at times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 VFR conditions will largely prevail at the terminals early this morning. By mid-morning, development of new shower activity is expected, though the timing and coverage of these with respect to the terminals is uncertain. Any passing showers will have to potential to produce sub-VFR conditions for a short time. As such, opted to maintain VCSH after 14z to account for this, but mention of specific impacts and categorical changes will be left to future TAFs and amendments. Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, winds will remain generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1951, the daily record high temperature of 95F was last recorded at Key West. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded at Key West in September. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest