469
FXUS62 KKEY 071850
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
250 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Say it in unison everyone, weather across the Florida Keys this
afternoon is warm and muggy. GOES East observations, now from GOES
19, saw occasional cumulus clouds over the island chain with
extremely shallow showers over the outer gulf. Temperatures across
the islands are rising into the mid 80s with an upper 80s
measurement from the Big Pine RAWS. Dew points are still in the
mid 70s. The object of interest will be the system visible on
satellite off to the west, a cold front making its way across the
Gulf.

A well defined longwave trough will move east across the
Southeastern United States and bring the cold front across the
Florida Keys tomorrow. The front will be heavily weakened by the
Gulf and the low pressure system`s separation from the right
entrance region of the upper level jet. Forecast soundings depict
the wind shear values decreasing to below severe thresholds by the
time showers arrive in the Lower Keys with average low level
winds below 25 knots. The Storm Prediction Center removed a
Marginal threat (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for the Keys
tomorrow as well. Heavy showers, gusty winds, and thunderstorms
are still expected during cold frontal passage. Our primary
concern for this frontal passage will be heavy rainfall and
flooding. The WPC issued a Marginal excessive rain threat (Level 1
of 4) for the Upper Keys. PWAT values are forecast safely above
the 75th percentile for the day with unidirectional zonal winds.
However, the wind surge associated with this front will be much
weaker than last week`s blast; breezy conditions are expected
tomorrow night, and will drop back to gentle to moderate breezes
by Wednesday.

Drier weather is progged to persist through the work week, but
that does not mean persistence will be the forecast byword. Model
ensembles are depicting another cold front moving across the Keys
waters late in the week. Current statistical guidance suggests
this will be a drier frontal passage, as Tuesday`s passage will
herald the arrival of deep layers of dry air. Another period of
breezy conditions is possible Saturday following the second front.
Statistical models also suggest dew points could drop into the 50s
across the Keys this weekend too, which if it verifies would make
for a fantastic pre-Easter weekend. Check back later this week for
updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
From synopsis, Moderate southeasterly breezes will shift south to
southwesterly tonight as a cold front approaches the Keys waters
from the Gulf. Showers are expected in the outer gulf waters
tonight with the frontal passage expected tomorrow. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be greatest tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Breezes will briefly freshen during mid week, but will slacken
from fresh to moderate before another frontal passage moves
through the Keys at the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of
today and into tonight. Southerly surface winds will veer later
tonight as a cold front approaches the Keys. Have pushed back VCSH
to 07z/09z to indicate when showers could start impacting EYW and
MTH respectively. Exact timing will depend on what triggering
mechanisms will be present to help develop storms. Due to the
forecasted scattered mode of these showers, TEMPOs will be amended
in with more details as convection develops and more details are
clearer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  76  84  70  80 /  40  60  50  10
Marathon  76  83  70  80 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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