Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
072 FXUS62 KKEY 200259 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1059 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 We had an active afternoon and evening as convection off the mainland spilled south and southwest into our waters. The leading edge of this convection had an outflow boundary that raced south and southwest at near 20 knots across our waters. Multiple marine stations across the Keys registered wind gusts around 30 knots. Most of the rain fell across the Upper Keys, where generally 1 to 2 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time. Elsewhere, it hardly rained as most of the shower and thunderstorm activity either dissipated before reaching the island chain or stayed out over the waters. Although things have quickly settled down behind the outflow, there is still enough boundaries and moisture out there that any collision could result in some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Therefore, did not feel the need to adjust PoPs. Otherwise, we are still dealing with a northeast wind behind the outflow but the gradient should take back over in the next couple of hours and we should go back northwest. If the gradient is too weak, we could go light and variable, which could spell bust for overnight lows. && .MARINE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Hurricane Erin will turn due northward over the open Atlantic over the course tonight. The increasingly expansive circulation of Erin will result in a transition from light to gentle northerly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters overnight, to gentle to moderate northwest breezes Tuesday and moderate to fresh westerly breezes on Wednesday. A slight swell from the north will lead to elevated seas in eastern portions of the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel. As Hurricane Erin migrates farther away toward the north and northeast, a weak subtropical high pressure ridge will settle over Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in a lighter wind pattern Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 North to northeast winds will back to the northwest and eventually west. There is a threat additional showers or storms could develop late overnight but confidence is too low to include mentions at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest