Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
563 FXUS62 KKEY 041021 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 621 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 422 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Even though the overnight shift started out on the quieter side, it was only a matter of time before things started picking up. Over the past couple of hours, clusters of showers have moved into our deep Gulf waters, and western Florida Straits. At first glance, storm motion looks a little sloppy, but there does seem to be a hint of a uniform northeasterly flow. This flow lines up with the troughing pattern that has been setting up in the southeastern U.S. CIMSS 700-850mb steering layer analysis still shows some evidence of the col area, but the 300-850mb confirms the troughing across most of the Sunshine State. All of this is to say that there hasn`t been any meaningful source of lift during the overnight hours, but this will change this morning as the pattern is continuing to evolve. Satellite observations haven`t shown lightning associated with any of the nearby showers, but some pockets of lightning have been observed just to our north and northeast. With some daytime heating to further our instability, thunderstorms will eventually become a concern today. Guidance suggests that this troughing will remain in place at least through tomorrow, so we will continue to advertise our highest PoPs (50%) until then. This isn`t to say that the holiday will be a complete washout, but anyone with plans outside during the day will want to remain weather aware. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. By Sunday, the troughing is expected to lift to the northeast and away from our area. This will give some ridging the opportunity to build in, and weather conditions will look more seasonable. It is just difficult to offer much insight as to what the pattern will look like, since this will greatly depend on the evolution of the weak low/troughing pattern we have to get through first. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, troughing will gradually deepen into Florida today and tomorrow with the Florida Keys local waters on the periphery of this pattern. This will lead to sustained gentle to modestly moderate southwesterly breezes, and an increase in showers and thunderstorms. As the trough exits the region and lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will lie across the Florida Keys, resulting in generally light to gentle easterly breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through the TAF period, though brief transient episodes of MVFR CIGs are possible as sky coverage waxes and wanes. Some showers and isolated thunder are possible throughout the TAF period, but coverage and timing are uncertain enough to preclude inclusion in the TAF for the moment. Winds are expected to be generally from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots, but could become light and variable at times. && .CLIMATE... July 4, on this day in 1947, the daily record rainfall of 6.07" was recorded at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 81 90 82 / 50 50 50 30 Marathon 88 81 88 81 / 50 50 50 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest