Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
703 FXUS62 KKEY 300252 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1052 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The most notable change in weather conditions has been some drier air starting to move in courtesy of the Saharan Air Layer. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT shows a swath of relatively higher PWAT values, just under 2 inches, across most of the forecast area, and this is reflected in the 00Z sounding from this evening (1.97 inches of PWAT). This air mass is slowly tracking away, and taking its place is a narrow swath of drier values, around 1.5 inches. This is part of the reason as to why we have seen much less convection this evening compared to yesterday. Our KBYX radar was detecting isolated showers near the island chain earlier this evening, but virtually all of the activity has diminished. Nighttime satellite imagery suggests there are a few innocuous cumulus clouds drifting by, as well as some residual cirrus shield from thunderstorms in Cuban nudging into our eastern zones, but skies are mostly clear and should remain that way. Otherwise, no changes are needed to the current forecast package. THe inherited slight chance (10 percent) of showers and thunderstorms seems appropriate since the atmosphere here in summer is almost always primed for one or two pop up showers. Expect a typical warm and muggy night with light breezes! && .MARINE... Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light southeasterly breezes will persist across the waters of the Florida Keys today. A rebuilding Atlantic ridge will build westward across South Florida during the next few days, which will slightly bump wind speeds up. Expect a diurnal cycle of fresher winds overnight and slackening winds during the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the 00Z TAF period with southeasterly surface winds of 5 to 10 knots. Saharan dust in the air will keep rain and thunderstorm chances low, near 10 percent. The EYW ASOS has been transmitting observations intermittently due to technical difficulties, but we will continue to provide AMD for EYW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 91 82 92 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 82 90 82 90 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest