Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
389 FXUS62 KKEY 281854 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwesterly flow this eveninf will favor waterspout development. Boaters are encouraged to keep an eye on the sky if venturing out. - Small Craft Should Exercise Caution offshore of the Upper Keys due to a brief freshening of winds this afternoon. Breezes will slacken slightly overnight. - Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals, but occasional MVFR CIGs may be observed, especially during the beginning of the TAF period, due to linger shower activity. Any lower categories observed at either site should be very short lived. Surface winds will remain variable at times, but generally out of the southwest at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Surface troughing will remain extended into the Keys for one more day keeping rain chances above normal at 40%. Looking at the global numerical model guidance Total Precipitable Water Normalized anomaly, this makes sense since we still have abundant moisture across the region. A developing low pressure system across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast combined with high pressure across the North Atlantic will act in tandem with one another creating for a squeeze play across much of Florida. This looks to play out with much of the moisture focused across the central and northern part of the state while the southern part and the Keys get treated to increasingly drier air as it gets funneled in by the high over the Atlantic. This dry air will also get stuck with no where to go and will remain over the Keys for several days. Therefore, starting tonight, rain chances fall to slight chances with some periods late week into the weekend being dried out completely. Since we will have much drier air over us in the coming days, the heat will become the center of the story again. Daytime highs near 90 degrees and in the lower 90s at times and dew points in the mid to upper 70s will create for heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees. As of now, we don`t anticipate Heat Advisory conditions as it should remain just below it. Overnight lows will also not provide for much relief from the daytime heat remaining in the lower to mid 80s in some cases. Developing low pressure off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic combined with high pressure over the Atlantic will also create for an increased pressure gradient across the area. This will lend to mainly light to gentle southwest to west breezes, occasionally gentle to moderate along the Island Chain, especially the Upper Keys over the next few days. The gradient relaxes for late week into the weekend resulting in a period of light breezes of even variable at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Troughing just off the Eastern Seaboard will continue to reach southwestward across the far southeast for the next day and be reinforced by another shortwave. This will result in a broad confluence zone remaining draped across northern Florida/Georgia for much of this week. Generally light to gentle breezes will continue out of the southwest to west, but may variable at times. Breezes will become gentle to moderate towards mid week before slackening back to light to gentle by late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 90 83 90 / 10 10 0 10 Marathon 82 90 82 91 / 10 10 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest