202
FXUS62 KKEY 031745 AAA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
145 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Thunderstorms continue to pulse in the lee of Big Pine Key, just
on the edge of the 10 mile ring for MTH. Winds are expected to
shift to the WNW shortly, so have included a brief window of TSRA
for MTH. EYW is more difficult. Three relic outflows are spilling
southward towards the Lower Keys, while nearly stationary
boundaries sit just to the south of EYW. We introduced a window of
VCSH for EYW based on this uncertainty, but will amend impacts if
the collisions are successful in kicking off convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
Water vapor and streamline analyses highlight a broad longwave
trough extending south into Florida. Subtropical ridging persists
over Mexico and the western Gulf of America, and also across the
Central Atlantic. CIRA`s LPW products place a sharp moisture
gradient across the Florida Keys, especially the 700-500 mb layer.
The best moisture remains to the north of the island chain. IR/VIS
satellite imagery in conjunction with 925-700 mb model depictions
reveal moderate cyclonic curvature across the southeastern Gulf,
low-level ridging building west across the Great Bahama Bank, and
a broad col-region over the western half of the Straits and
western Cuba. As such, there appears to be a decent shot at
cyclonic convergence across the Gulf waters and potentially the
island chain over the next several hours. There may be a dramatic
collapse in convection as it nears the island chain from the Gulf
due to the dry air lurking near and to the south of the Keys. High
temperatures today should top out in the upper 80s to near 90,
with anvil debris tempering temperatures a couple of degrees.
Initially south to southwesterly winds will end up a little
squirrely this afternoon as the col- region lifts northward. The
only change with this morning`s package was to split eastern
Hawk/Straits due to the 15 knot winds at Carysfort, accelerated by
the surface trough over the Mainland. We will reassess the idea
for isolated coverage tIssued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025
his afternoon based on our counter-analysis. Current radar trends
suggest the overnight crew may have been on the right course.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....CLR

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