Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
771 FXUS62 KKEY 120830 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 430 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -A taste of Fall continues for much of the week as humidity levels will be lower than as of recent. -A Coastal Flood Statement is now in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled as water levels have decreased below the advisory criteria. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Overall, the weather has been becoming less active across the Keys when compared to recent days, especially Friday. KBYX radar has remained active all night as it has been detecting occasional showers and even a thunderstorm at times throughout the area. Once in a while one of these showers moves across the Island Chain, but this was mostly earlier on in the night. The more rigorous activity has remained across the southern distant Straits as well as across the northern Gulf waters. There appears to be a boundary moving southward on which this activity has developed along. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The Keys remain in between the Nor-easter off the North Carolina coast and high pressure building in behind it across the northern Gulf. This is promoting mainly north to northeast breezes of 5 to 10 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys. .FORECAST... In the wake of the frontal passage last evening, much drier air has filtered into the Keys. The caveat to this is a boundary that we have been tracking moving southward across the offshore Gulf waters. This boundary has had a history of being able to produce quite robust showers, perhaps even a thunderstorm at times. As this boundary continues moving southward, some guidance is showing the potential for this boundary to ignite more showers or even a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the Lower Keys this morning and areas to the west. Therefore, don`t be surprised if somewhere in the Lower Keys gets one more decent shower or even a quick thunderstorm this morning. For now, we hold the 20% but there might be a small window this morning where that PoP chance might actually be higher than that before the drier air moves in more deeply through the column. Even drier air is expected to move into the region for tonight and the holiday itself resulting in rain chances decreasing to 10%. A subtle increase in moisture is expected for Monday night and Tuesday resulting in a slight uptick back to 20%. Another boundary moves through the Keys Tuesday/Tuesday night which will usher in even drier air resulting in a period of PoPs at 10%. In addition, north to northeasterly breezes are expected to freshen early week as high pressure builds in from the north. Breezes will further shift to mainly northeasterly for much of the week peaking overnight and in the morning and lulling in the afternoon. Moisture will increase a little bit for late week into next weekend as the flow begins to shift more east to southeast. Rain chances creep back up a little bit to 20% as a result. Other than that, the next week looks to feature highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 70s along with more comfortable humidity than we have dealt with as of late. It appears fall may be here to stay at least for this week. Dew points may even drop into the mid to upper 60s towards mid week! Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes expected today and tonight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the North Carolina Coast and high pressure building in across the North Gulf Coast. Expect north to northeasterly swells across the eastern marine zones today due to the Nor`easter off the North Carolina coast. High pressure builds across the eastern United States to start the week leading to freshening mainly northeasterly breezes heading to mid-late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. An occasional passing shower or grouping of low stratiform cloud cover may be able to provide brief excursions into MVFR or IFR, but these should be transitory enough to preclude the need for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Any persistent categorical changes will be addressed as needed by later amendments and routine TAF issuances. Winds will remain generally from the north at 5 to 10 knots through the period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2010, the daily record rainfall of 8.28" was recorded at Marathon. This is also the wettest day ever recorded at Marathon during the month of October. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 77 86 78 / 20 10 10 20 Marathon 85 75 86 77 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest