Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
462 FXUS62 KKEY 261509 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 After a week of relatively wet weather, a dry and quiet morning is underway across the Florida Keys. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has settled over the Keys and its surrounding areas suppressing any and all deep convective development. We are not entirely dry throughout the atmospheric profile though as GOES-19 visible imagery depicts rows of shallow fair weather cumulus propagating across the island chain promoting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. KBYX radar is generally free of any precipitable echoes with any individual cells attempting to grow quickly dying down before dropping any measurable rain. Moderate easterly breezes prevail along the Reef as they did overnight. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints floating about the 70s. This morning`s KKEY balloon sounding is unsurprisingly very similar to yesterday evening`s. It holds a sharp inversion around 890 mb with very dry air aloft along with generally zonal east breezes. The measured PW is only one hundredth more than last night standing at 1.19 inches and is much lower than the 10th percentile for today. CIMSS MIMIC PW shows that these dry values are observed across central Florida all the way down into Cuba. Combining this with a weakly anticyclonic surface flow and no real source of lift results in near nil PoPs for both today and tonight. The surface ridge currently centered somewhere over mainland Florida will continue to march into the Gulf slackening breezes for the other half of the weekend and also taking the SAL with it. A little bit of low level moisture returns then resulting in slight chance PoPs reintroduced tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a high pressure cell centered near the Florida Atlantic Coast will shift westward into the Gulf through the weekend. This will allow winds to continue to trend downwards and back northeast to east. A dry and stable air mass associated with a Saharan Air Layer aloft will eliminate or significantly limit shower and thunderstorm activity from tonight through tonight. Thereafter, generally a split ridge pattern will dominate, keeping breezes light out of the east to southeast. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Near surface winds will be out of the east at near 10 knots with occasional higher gusts near 15 knots possible. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1946, the daily record cold high temperature of 80F and the daily record rainfall of 2.81" were recorded at Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 30 Marathon 89 82 89 82 / 0 0 10 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest