Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
916 FXUS62 KKEY 010238 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1038 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm conditions will continue over the next couple of days, but dew points will climb noticeably by Friday. - Light and variable breezes will prevail for the next couple of days, with a brief gentle to moderate pickup heading into the weekend. - Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely beginning Sunday, although there is low confidence in rainfall amounts at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 953 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 There is only so much we can say about weather conditions this evening along the Florida Keys courtesy of low level high pressure. Current temperatures are near 80F with dew points near 70F, so we don`t really have any complaints! The environment hasn`t changed much over the past 24 hours, and this suggests that 1) this high pressures influence is not done with us just yet and 2) the overnight hours could very well look similar to last night. Higher aloft in the vertical, upper air ridging is being flattened by a shortwave tracking across northern Florida. This doesn`t mean much for our sensible weather for now, but the eventually weakened ridge may make some room for a little unsettled weather this weekend. However, that`s for the next forecast discussion. Out 00Z KKEY sounding showed plenty of inhibition to keep the radar quiet tonight. Even with a PWAT calculated at 0.99", there was too much dry air in the low and mid levels to support much shower activity, let alone any initialization of showers. The wind profile showed light winds from the surface up to approximately 12,000 ft, and were following a veer back veer pattern. Overall, the sounding wasn`t particularly encouraging of any shower activity. The advertised calm weather overnight with no PoPs seems more than reasonable, so no changes are proposed to the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. Light to gentle variable breezes will continue through the overnight, but we will eventually see a more uniform southerly direction. Chances for showers are virtually near zero through the overnight. The next opportunity for an increase in rain and thunder chances arrives Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with light and variable winds eventually becoming southerly. Crosswind concerns are very low due to the light magnitude of surface winds near 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 76 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest