Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
506 FXUS62 KKEY 100801 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 401 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate broadly E-SE breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day, except moderate to fresh breezes for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida overnight. - Rain and thunder chances remain slightly above normal for overnight with near to below normal shower and thunder chances starting tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Deep layered ridging stretches westward from off the southeast Atlantic Coast to along the northern Gulf Coast. This, along with the usual regime related night time surge, has resulted in moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the forecast area. Last evenings sounding indicated precipitable water quite high at 2.23 inches. However, this is likely no longer representative as this moisture was associated with a weak trough that drove westward through our area yesterday. Drier air behind this trough has likely infiltrated our area. As a result, convective activity has been limited and largely relegated to the western half of our waters, with the island chain remaining dry this evening. Deep layered ridging will remain the driver of our weather through the week. The ridge axis will weaken as it slips slowly southward into South Florida by mid week. Consequently, easterly breezes will oscillate steadily downwards, still peaking at night and lulling during the day. No change in temps or dew points expected. Drier and more stable lower levels will help to keep rain chances slim to none. Late week, the mid and upper level ridge will weaken much further as a mid latitude trough slides across the eastern United States. Meanwhile, all long term guidance indicates a broad lower level trough will ride westward across our area, bringing with it increased moisture and instability. Expect rain chances to climb late week and into the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 A surface ridge stretching across Central Florida will wobble a bit southward over the next couple of days. As a result, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will slacken to a light to gentle breezes. This will keep mainly gentle easterly breezes on Keys waters. Late in the week, the ridge is expected to lift northward as a broad lower level trough rides westward across our area. In response, winds are expected to climb back to gentle to moderate easterlies. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be gentle easterlies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest