Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
626 FXUS62 KKEY 130232 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A much less active afternoon and evening than 24 hours ago, however, we still did see quite a bit of lightning tonight. One thunderstorm developed north of Snipe Point and quickly grew into quite the lightning maker. Most of the showers and thunderstorms we saw this evening were short lived on the order of about 30 mins. Tonight`s sounding shows a similar atmospheric structure to last night with plenty of moisture, but lacking in low level CAPE. In addition, tonight`s winds are lighter and weaker, which is not lending itself to any robust boundary collisions. Winds across the marine platforms show 5 to 10 knots out of the east and southeast. Meanwhile, island communities are seeing even lighter speeds around 5 mph being reported at the airport ASOS. We`re not out of the wood yet for precipitation. In fact, a weak shortwave is riding south southwest and approaching the northwestern Bahamas. This shortwave will continue a south- southwest trajectory and will interact with the moisture currently present. We`re starting to see isolated activity developing over the waters between South Florida and the Bahamas. This is slowly making it`s way towards us but will take some time given the light steering flow. Felt no need to change PoPs from low end chance (30 percent). && .MARINE... Issued at 1023 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Sprawling high pressure in the North Atlantic will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes through early next week. Near- normal rain and thunder chances are expected through Sunday. A disturbance off the Southeast is expected to dive southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula for early next week, supporting bouts of increased storm chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight and into Sunday. We will see moisture gradually increase over the next 24 hours and rain/thunder chances will slowly be increasing. That being said, there are still uncertainties on when we could see impact from any shower or thunderstorm and will leave out mentions for future amendments. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest