Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
067 FXUS62 KKEY 241800 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 200 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity is not expected to impact either terminal at this time, but cannot be fully ruled out fully through this evening. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 A mostly peaceful morning for the Florida Keys. KBYX has detected some light showers but those have remained south of the island chain in the distant Straits. According to GOES-19 satellite imagery, it is mostly sunny across our CWA. Temperatures on the island chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Along the Reef, winds are east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. For the rest of today, shower activity could pop up as things continue to warm along the island chain. As ridging prevails through the rest of the weekend breezes will continue to be east to southeast and light to gentle. Outside of occasional showers with possible isolated embedded thunderstorms, it should pan out to be a nice Saturday! && .FORECAST... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Yesterday, the daily low temperature measured at the Florida Keys Marathon International Airport tied the prior record warm minimum of 82 degrees. That observation sets the stage for today across the Keys; it will once again be warmer than normal, muggy, and primed for potential waterspouts somewhere along the island chain. Current conditions show temperatures in the lower 80s along most of the Keys, but some spots in the larger islands are able to radiate down to the lower to mid 70s. Dew points continue to hover near the mid 70s and radiation fog may form on Big Pine Key. Radar observations from KBYX this morning do not show precipitating clouds, and GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGBs highlight only occasional cumulus clouds across the Florida Keys waters. Today, one can expect persistence to be the keyword for the forecast. Showers and a possible thunderstorm are possible as the island chain heats up and winds start to veer east to southeasterly. Overall, the key point is to stay hydrated! Looking ahead, the synoptic pattern will become a bit stagnant for the Florida Keys. Model ensembles show longwave ridging over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southeastern CONUS is forecast to prevail through mid-week. Building and weakening of a surface high pressure system over Ontario an Quebec will let breezes freshen and slacken on a diurnal cycle. Sustained high pressure may begin to break down by Thursday to Friday, as hinted by a drop in winds in statistical model guidance, but for the Florida Keys expect southeasterlies to prevail throughout the week. Days thus will be warmer, muggy, and marked by bursts of showers during the day. Keep an eye on the radar, because showers can form very quickly in this environment! && .MARINE...Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will freshen to gentle to moderate across the Florida Keys coastal waters today. High pressure will build over the northeastern CONUS, allowing breezes to veer southeasterly. In response, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to near normal values. Moderate to fresh breezes are possible early next week. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest