Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
261
FXUS62 KKEY 241841
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
141 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
Extremely dry, nearly cloud free, and slightly cool weather
continues today across the Florida Keys. Meteorological echoes
continue to be absent on the KBYX radar and visible satellite
imagery from GOES-E shows a defined lack of low level cloud cover
across the nearshore waters. Temperatures across the Keys rose to
the lower 70s by noon with dew points hovering near 60 F. All
these parameters match the daily record low PW value measured by
the 12Z sounding, but visible and infrared observations indicate
environmental steering layers are shifting southerly. A slight
increase in dew point is likely overnight so lows may not reach
the lower 60s over the interior parts of the islands.

In the short term, the surface high will shift east into the
Atlantic. Simultaneously, a weak upper-level trough over the Gulf
of Mexico will move east across the Keys. A plume of moisture will
shift north, bringing an end to the 50s dew points and lows in the
lower 60s. The amount of moisture will allow an increase to slight
chances of showers Monday night and Tuesday, primarily over the
Straits of Florida. Following the trough`s departure and
predominantly zonal flow across the continental United States,
Thanksgiving week weather appears to be very close to climatology
for the Florida Keys.

Ensemble guidance in the GFS and Euro suggests a surface low will
be able to develop and transit across the Midwest late in the
week. The low`s associated cold front is progged to move through
the nearshore waters of the Florida Keys sometime Friday through
Sunday. Breezes will gradually slacken ahead of the front as the
surface high erodes before a burst of northerly winds next
weekend. Statistical models also suggested a weak cold frontal
passage environment in the wind and moisture fields after
Thanksgiving. However, this feature is five to seven days out and
changes to the forecast are expected. Please check back later in
the week for more details. Until then, enjoy the relatively cool
weather and clear skies!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail tonight across the
nearshore waters. Expect sustained northeasterly to easterly
breezes while a broad high pressure system sets up over the
southeastern United States. A period of isolated showers is
possible on Tuesday, primarily over the Florida Straits, despite
the deep layers of dry air and near-nil shower chances across the
nearshore waters through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
Clear skies and little chance of rain this afternoon maintain VFR
conditions at the island terminals. NE winds persist through the
TAF period at 5-10 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 1970, the daily record
low temperature of 51F was recorded in Key West. Temperature data
for Key West dates back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  81  73  81 /   0  10  10  10
Marathon  70  80  71  81 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....NB

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest