Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
261 FXUS62 KKEY 241841 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 141 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Extremely dry, nearly cloud free, and slightly cool weather continues today across the Florida Keys. Meteorological echoes continue to be absent on the KBYX radar and visible satellite imagery from GOES-E shows a defined lack of low level cloud cover across the nearshore waters. Temperatures across the Keys rose to the lower 70s by noon with dew points hovering near 60 F. All these parameters match the daily record low PW value measured by the 12Z sounding, but visible and infrared observations indicate environmental steering layers are shifting southerly. A slight increase in dew point is likely overnight so lows may not reach the lower 60s over the interior parts of the islands. In the short term, the surface high will shift east into the Atlantic. Simultaneously, a weak upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will move east across the Keys. A plume of moisture will shift north, bringing an end to the 50s dew points and lows in the lower 60s. The amount of moisture will allow an increase to slight chances of showers Monday night and Tuesday, primarily over the Straits of Florida. Following the trough`s departure and predominantly zonal flow across the continental United States, Thanksgiving week weather appears to be very close to climatology for the Florida Keys. Ensemble guidance in the GFS and Euro suggests a surface low will be able to develop and transit across the Midwest late in the week. The low`s associated cold front is progged to move through the nearshore waters of the Florida Keys sometime Friday through Sunday. Breezes will gradually slacken ahead of the front as the surface high erodes before a burst of northerly winds next weekend. Statistical models also suggested a weak cold frontal passage environment in the wind and moisture fields after Thanksgiving. However, this feature is five to seven days out and changes to the forecast are expected. Please check back later in the week for more details. Until then, enjoy the relatively cool weather and clear skies! && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail tonight across the nearshore waters. Expect sustained northeasterly to easterly breezes while a broad high pressure system sets up over the southeastern United States. A period of isolated showers is possible on Tuesday, primarily over the Florida Straits, despite the deep layers of dry air and near-nil shower chances across the nearshore waters through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Clear skies and little chance of rain this afternoon maintain VFR conditions at the island terminals. NE winds persist through the TAF period at 5-10 kts. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 1970, the daily record low temperature of 51F was recorded in Key West. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 71 81 73 81 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 70 80 71 81 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....MC Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest