Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
707 FXUS62 KKEY 101956 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 356 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Shower activity surrounding both terminals results in VCSH being included. For the time being, mention of thunderstorms and TEMPOs are not needed but will be included at later issuances if that changes. Near surface winds outside of convection will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 KBYX radar this morning indicates a broad swatch of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms situated over the deep Gulf waters. Outside of this main convection area, boundaries have initiated additional convection propagating northward across portions of the Middle and Upper Keys. While overall coverage remains extensive, the frequency and intensity of thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours. Overcast cloud coverage is prevailing across the Keys, with current temperatures currently in the mid 80s. Along the Reef, winds are generally from the southeast to south at near 10 knots. CAMs suggest the primary convective area over the deep Gulf will persist through the afternoon before gradually shifting eastward towards the Lower Keys late today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible elsewhere as additional boundary interactions occur. Outside of convection, winds are expected to decrease slightly to 5 to 10 knots, veering more towards the southeast. Tonight, convection coverage is anticipated to decrease, transitioning towards a more typical summertime pattern. && .FORECAST... As the Atlantic Ridge continues to nose westward back across the area, we will see our surface winds return more out of the east. This easterly flow will persist well into the end of the week and next weekend. In the short term, the easterly flow will maintain a decently saturated air mass. Towards midweek, pockets of relatively drier air will move in just above the boundary layer. It remains to be seen if these pockets will be enough to drop our below to slightly below normal. However, given the atmosphere`s ability to overcome such dry pockets this time of year, will maintain low end chance PoPs (30 percent) for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a tropical wave will continue slowly progressing westward to northwest through the Keys today. This will promote light to gentle east to southeast breezes as well as above normal rain and thunder chances. Behind this feature, surface high will build across the Atlantic and into the Keys. This will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes for early next week. Breezes slacken back to light to gentle breezes towards the middle of next week. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest