River Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
982 FGUS53 KMSR 041600 RVFKBM RIVER FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER; CHANHASSEN MN 1059 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2025 : THIS IS A NWS GUIDANCE PRODUCT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER : FORECAST CENTER. PUBLIC FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED BY NWS : WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. : : FORECAST GROUP IS KBM : : FORECASTS INCLUDE 72-HOURS OF FUTURE PRECIPITATION (QPF) IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS : :************************************************************ :BIG MUDDY RIVER, PLMI2 :PLUMFIELD, IL - PAH : :ACTION STAGE 18.0 FTMINOR STAGE 20.0 FT :MODERATE STAGE 27.0 FTMAJOR STAGE 34.0 FT : :THE RIVER STAGE WAS 13.8 FT AT 1230 Z ON APR 04 :RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 15 Z ON 04/05/2025 .AR :CREST: PLMI2 0409 Z DC202504041559/DH0000/HGIFFXZ 28.1 :Crest near 28.1 FT around 00 Z on Wed, Apr 9 .ER PLMI2 0404 Z DC202504041559/DH18/HGIFF/DIH6 :RIVER FORECAST / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z .E1 : 0404 : / 14.1 / 14.9 / 15.8 .E2 : 0405 : / 18.1 / 20.3 / 22.4 / 23.6 .E3 : 0406 : / 24.9 / 26.1 / 26.9 / 27.4 .E4 : 0407 : / 27.8 / 27.9 / 28.0 / 28.0 .E5 : 0408 : / 28.0 / 28.0 / 28.1 / 28.1 .E6 : 0409 : / 28.0 / 28.0 / 27.9 / 27.8 .E7 : 0410 : / 27.6 / 27.3 / 27.0 / 26.6 .E8 : 0411 : / 26.3 : : ***THE TABLE BELOW IS THE QPF FOR THE LOCAL DRAINAGE : AREA AND DOES NOT REPRESENT THE QPF FOR ANY UPSTREAM : WATERSHEDS*** : :QPF (IN) / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z : 0404 / 0.34 / 0.28 / 1.76 : 0405 / 0.56 / 0.41 / 0.79 / 0.45 : 0406 / 0.20 / 0.02 / 0.08 / 0.00 : 0407 / 0.00 : : 72-hr QPF Total Ending on Apr 07 is 4.89 inches : :FORECASTER COMMENTS... : : :************************************************************ :BIG MUDDY RIVER, MURI2 :MURPHYSBORO 2SW-WWTP & RTE 127, IL - PAH : :ACTION STAGE 20.0 FTMINOR STAGE 22.0 FT :MODERATE STAGE 28.0 FTMAJOR STAGE 36.0 FT : :THE RIVER STAGE WAS 13.1 FT AT 1230 Z ON APR 04 :RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 03 Z ON 04/06/2025 .AR :CREST: MURI2 0410 Z DC202504041559/DH0600/HGIFFXZ 36.1 :Crest near 36.1 FT around 06 Z on Thu, Apr 10 .ER MURI2 0404 Z DC202504041559/DH18/HGIFF/DIH6 :RIVER FORECAST / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z .E1 : 0404 : / 13.9 / 14.6 / 15.9 .E2 : 0405 : / 17.2 / 18.7 / 20.3 / 22.1 .E3 : 0406 : / 23.9 / 25.5 / 27.1 / 28.5 .E4 : 0407 : / 29.8 / 30.9 / 31.8 / 32.6 .E5 : 0408 : / 33.3 / 33.9 / 34.5 / 34.9 .E6 : 0409 : / 35.4 / 35.7 / 36.0 / 36.1 .E7 : 0410 : / 36.0 / 35.7 / 35.4 / 35.1 .E8 : 0411 : / 35.0 : : ***THE TABLE BELOW IS THE QPF FOR THE LOCAL DRAINAGE : AREA AND DOES NOT REPRESENT THE QPF FOR ANY UPSTREAM : WATERSHEDS*** : :QPF (IN) / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z : 0404 / 0.49 / 0.35 / 1.66 : 0405 / 0.56 / 0.43 / 0.72 / 0.39 : 0406 / 0.16 / 0.02 / 0.05 / 0.00 : 0407 / 0.00 : : 72-hr QPF Total Ending on Apr 07 is 4.83 inches : :FORECASTER COMMENTS... : :This location experiences significant backwater from the :downstream mainstem river. :************************************************************ :KASKASKIA RIVER, VNDI2 :VANDALIA WWTP, IL - LSX : :ACTION STAGE 16.0 FTMINOR STAGE 18.0 FT :MODERATE STAGE 24.0 FTMAJOR STAGE 26.0 FT : :THE RIVER STAGE WAS 10.0 FT AT 1400 Z ON APR 04 :RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 03 Z ON 04/05/2025 .AR :CREST: VNDI2 0405 Z DC202504041559/DH1800/HGIFFXZ 25.9 :Crest near 25.9 FT around 18 Z on Sat, Apr 5 :FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 03 Z ON 04/09/2025 .ER VNDI2 0404 Z DC202504041559/DH18/HGIFF/DIH6 :RIVER FORECAST / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z .E1 : 0404 : / 9.9 / 13.2 / 20.8 .E2 : 0405 : / 25.3 / 25.9 / 25.9 / 25.8 .E3 : 0406 : / 25.6 / 25.5 / 25.4 / 25.2 .E4 : 0407 : / 24.9 / 24.5 / 24.1 / 23.4 .E5 : 0408 : / 22.6 / 20.8 / 18.6 / 16.4 .E6 : 0409 : / 14.8 / 13.5 / 12.3 / 11.3 .E7 : 0410 : / 10.6 / 10.1 / 9.7 / 9.3 .E8 : 0411 : / 9.2 : : ***THE TABLE BELOW IS THE QPF FOR THE LOCAL DRAINAGE : AREA AND DOES NOT REPRESENT THE QPF FOR ANY UPSTREAM : WATERSHEDS*** : :QPF (IN) / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z : 0404 / 0.15 / 0.68 / 1.35 : 0405 / 0.28 / 0.17 / 0.36 / 0.09 : 0406 / 0.03 / 0.02 / 0.04 / 0.00 : 0407 / 0.00 : : 72-hr QPF Total Ending on Apr 07 is 3.17 inches : :FORECASTER COMMENTS... : :Historical analysis showed hydrograph (HG) coming in :sooner. We shiftted HG about a day earlier for this event, :model simulation still touching major with 72 hr QPF :uncertainty. :************************************************************ :KASKASKIA RIVER, KCAI2 :CARLYLE - US HWY 50, IL - LSX : :ACTION STAGE 15.0 FTMINOR STAGE 16.5 FT :MODERATE STAGE 23.0 FTMAJOR STAGE 27.0 FT : :THE RIVER STAGE WAS 16.9 FT AT 1400 Z ON APR 04 .ER KCAI2 0404 Z DC202504041559/DH18/HGIFF/DIH6 :RIVER FORECAST / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z .E1 : 0404 : / 16.9 / 16.9 / 17.7 .E2 : 0405 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E3 : 0406 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E4 : 0407 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E5 : 0408 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E6 : 0409 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E7 : 0410 : / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 / 18.5 .E8 : 0411 : / 18.5 : : ***THE TABLE BELOW IS THE QPF FOR THE LOCAL DRAINAGE : AREA AND DOES NOT REPRESENT THE QPF FOR ANY UPSTREAM : WATERSHEDS*** : :QPF (IN) / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z : 0404 / 0.28 / 0.64 / 1.35 : 0405 / 0.36 / 0.25 / 0.49 / 0.15 : 0406 / 0.04 / 0.02 / 0.04 / 0.00 : 0407 / 0.00 : : 72-hr QPF Total Ending on Apr 07 is 3.62 inches : :FORECASTER COMMENTS... : : :************************************************************ :KASKASKIA RIVER, NASI2 :NEW ATHENS, IL - LSX : :ACTION STAGE 77.0 FTMINOR STAGE 79.0 FT :MODERATE STAGE 82.0 FTMAJOR STAGE 85.0 FT : :THE RIVER STAGE WAS 69.8 FT AT 1100 Z ON APR 04 :RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND 21 Z ON 04/06/2025 .AR :CREST: NASI2 0408 Z DC202504041559/DH1800/HGIFFXZ 84.0 :Crest near 84.0 FT around 18 Z on Tue, Apr 8 :FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 09 Z ON 04/11/2025 .ER NASI2 0404 Z DC202504041559/DH18/HGIFF/DIH6 :RIVER FORECAST / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z .E1 : 0404 : / 69.9 / 70.5 / 71.2 .E2 : 0405 : / 71.9 / 72.9 / 74.1 / 75.8 .E3 : 0406 : / 77.4 / 78.8 / 80.1 / 81.4 .E4 : 0407 : / 82.6 / 83.3 / 83.6 / 83.8 .E5 : 0408 : / 83.9 / 84.0 / 84.0 / 83.8 .E6 : 0409 : / 83.6 / 83.3 / 82.8 / 82.2 .E7 : 0410 : / 81.5 / 80.8 / 80.1 / 79.4 .E8 : 0411 : / 78.7 : : ***THE TABLE BELOW IS THE QPF FOR THE LOCAL DRAINAGE : AREA AND DOES NOT REPRESENT THE QPF FOR ANY UPSTREAM : WATERSHEDS*** : :QPF (IN) / 12Z / 18Z / 00Z / 06Z : 0404 / 0.45 / 0.60 / 1.42 : 0405 / 0.42 / 0.37 / 0.58 / 0.20 : 0406 / 0.07 / 0.02 / 0.04 / 0.00 : 0407 / 0.00 : : 72-hr QPF Total Ending on Apr 07 is 4.17 inches : :FORECASTER COMMENTS... : :This location experiences significant backwater from the :downstream mainstem river. :Today`s QPF is lower than yesterday`s total so we are :lowering the crest. Uncertainty is high here due to no :historical analog we are expecting it to fall within the :moderate range. : :******************************************************************* : $$ : FCSTR EXT: 2569 : :...END of MESSAGE...