Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
479
FNUS73 KJKL 181225
FWSJKL
Spot Forecast for WARBLER RIDGE...KNLT
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will provide rain-free conditions over
the fire area today and tonight. The threat of rain returns
Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front. The most recent guidance
suggests that there is at least an 80% chance of the forecast
location picking up at least 0.25 inch of rain. Winds will also
become blustery out of the south ahead of the front, as gusts
could easily approach 30 mph in sheltered locations below ridgetop
level and exceed 30 mph on exposed knobs near/at the top of Pine Mountain.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Dewpoint............49.
Max apparent temp...63.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the
southeast 3 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the east 2 to 3
mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
the south 5 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (3100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 17.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59 68 72 70 69 66 73
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 59 62 63 63 59 58
Dewpoint........49 49 49 49 50 50 49
RH..............77 69 62 60 62 72 72
Aparnt tmp (F)..56 59 62 63 63 59 58
20 FT wind dir..SW E E SE SE SE S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 5 5 6 6 7 8
Ridge wind dir..SW E E SE SE SE S
Ridge wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.7 0.8
Transp wind dir.S E E SE SE S S
Transp wind spd.3 2 3 5 6 7 5
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 3 3
ADI.............9 7 11 16 17 15 4
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 6 9 11 11 10 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly to partly cloudy (65-75 percent).
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............48.
Max apparent temp...54.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 7 to 12 mph with
gusts to around 24 mph after 3 am.
Ridgetop wind.......South 3 to 9 mph increasing to around 14 mph
early in the morning.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 17 mph
after 3 am.
Vent Rate...........Poor (2800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................3 to 15.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........71 58 66 57 50 48 72 66 51 72 75 86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............54 51 51 49 49 47 47 49 49 52 52 54
Dewpoint........49 49 48 48 48 47 47 47 48 48 48 48
RH..............83 93 89 96 96 100 100 93 96 86 86 80
Aparnt tmp (F)..54 52 51 49 49 46 45 44 46 45 45 52
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 8 13
20 FT wind gust.6 5 5 7 9 9 13 18 15 20 22 24
Ridge wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S
Ridge wind spd..5 5 3 3 3 3 3 5 3 3 9 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.6 7 8 8 8 10 13 13 15 16 17 17
LVORI...........5 6 6 8 8 9 9 6 6 5 4 4
ADI.............3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 15 15
Haines index....4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
likely in the morning, then rain showers in
the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1000, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Dewpoint............50 increasing to 54 in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...63.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 14 mph with gusts to around 32
mph.
Ridgetop wind.......South 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (10300 knot-ft) increasing to poor (20400
knot-ft) early in the afternoon, then
decreasing to poor (11800 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................18 to 36.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80 86 85 77 89 89 91 93 92 91 90 91
Weather cov..... SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 40 70 70 70 80 80 80 80 70 70
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Temp............54 54 54 54 56 61 61 61 63 63 63 62
Dewpoint........48 48 49 49 50 51 52 53 54 54 55 55
RH..............80 80 83 83 80 70 72 75 72 72 75 78
Aparnt tmp (F)..52 52 54 54 58 61 63 63 62 60 59 59
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..16 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.28 28 29 30 25 28 28 29 28 26 25 24
Ridge wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
Ridge wind spd..16 16 14 14 15 15 14 15 14 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.18 17 17 18 20 21 22 22 24 21 16 15
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............20 19 19 23 25 29 33 31 36 29 20 18
Haines index....4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 11 11 15 17 21 25 23 27 20 14 12
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...GEERTSON
Requested by...D B ANDERSON
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426674.0/JKL
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dwayne.anderson@ky.gov