Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
063
FGUS73 KJKL 132249
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-271200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
549 PM EST THU FEB 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook covers eastern Kentucky.
The flood risk is above normal. Minor to moderate flooding is
expected due to heavy rainfall, with isolated major flooding
possible.
This outlook is valid through May 2025.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 60 43 25 18 7 <5
Pineville 1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 : 49 42 28 22 6 8
Williamsburg 21.0 27.5 32.0 : 88 63 49 32 26 18
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Baxter 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 34 34 22 21 15 15
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 78 55 25 20 <5 <5
Ravenna 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 85 72 61 48 24 32
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 35.0 42.0 50.0 : 32 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
Prestonsburg 40.0 43.0 46.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Paintsville 35.0 38.0 42.0 : 46 22 34 14 17 7
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 33 18 7 <5 <5 <5
Jackson 29.0 31.0 40.0 : 41 35 35 29 7 8
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Red River
Clay City 17.0 19.0 23.0 : 47 39 34 26 10 9
:Russell Fork
Elkhorn City 21.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 27.0 32.0 38.0 : 56 48 40 33 18 13
Oneida 29.0 34.0 38.0 : 19 21 6 7 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 16.9 21.3 23.4 29.2 33.1 36.9 38.8
Pineville 986.2 987.3 991.2 1001.5 1011.0 1016.6 1019.8
Williamsburg 19.3 20.6 23.8 27.4 32.2 35.1 35.6
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Baxter 5.8 7.4 9.6 13.7 17.3 21.2 26.8
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 17.9 18.5 20.3 22.3 24.0 26.2 26.4
Ravenna 19.3 20.1 22.9 26.7 30.6 35.9 38.3
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 17.1 18.6 22.8 32.2 36.2 40.4 42.0
Prestonsburg 17.8 20.0 24.0 29.3 34.9 37.3 39.2
Paintsville 19.1 20.6 26.4 33.9 40.2 43.7 46.6
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 7.0 8.1 11.4 14.8 22.3 25.4 28.2
Jackson 11.8 13.9 18.0 25.9 34.2 37.8 41.9
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 5.4 5.9 7.4 9.2 10.1 12.1 13.4
:Red River
Clay City 10.9 11.5 13.5 16.5 20.3 22.9 24.4
:Russell Fork
Elkhorn City 9.8 10.5 10.9 13.7 15.8 18.2 19.1
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 15.3 16.9 20.4 29.1 36.3 40.0 41.8
Oneida 13.9 15.1 18.2 22.9 27.2 31.5 34.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
Pineville 977.5 977.4 977.2 976.9 976.8 976.7 976.7
Williamsburg 4.9 4.8 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Baxter 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg 10.6 10.5 10.2 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.3
Ravenna 11.9 11.7 11.4 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.3
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3
Prestonsburg 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0
Paintsville 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.9
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1
Jackson 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4
:Poor Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5
:Red River
Clay City 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
:Russell Fork
Elkhorn City 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9
Oneida 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.7
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Precipitation and temperatures so far in February have averaged well
above normal across the area. Current soil moisture was at or above
normal and streamflows were above normal to much above normal across
eastern Kentucky. Reservoir levels were near or above normal. There
is currently no snowpack in place.
This weekend, a significant rainfall event will occur, with 3 to 4
inches of precipitation expected, with isolated amounts of up to 5
inches possible. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
expected this weekend and through next week as a result of weekend
rains, with isolated major river flooding possible.
The 6 to 10 day outlook, which runs from February 19th to February
23rd, calls for well below normal temperatures and slightly below
normal precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook, which runs from
February 21st to February 27th, calls below normal temperatures and
precipitation.
The outlook for March calls for above normal temperatures and
precipitation. Normal temperatures for March are in the upper 40s and
normal precipitation is between 4.5 and 5 inches.
The seasonal outlook, which covers March through May, calls for above
normal temperatures and precipitation.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.noaa.gov.
Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.
Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.
Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.
Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued February 27th.
$$
GEOGERIAN