717
FXUS63 KJKL 060331
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1131 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The hottest temperatures of the next week are forecast today.
  Although slight cooling is expected as we move through the
  coming week, humidity will increase.

- Increasing humidity in the coming week will be accompanied by a
  potential for showers/thunderstorms from Monday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

Minor late evening update is out to modify hourly temperatures
slightly to reflect current trends. Otherwise, there are no
changes.


UPDATE Issued at 843 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

Removed all mention of sprinkles from the forecast as towering
cumulus have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. Also
lowered temperatures in some central and eastern valleys a little
more quickly over the next 1 to 2 hours to match current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

A few tiny pinprick showers have developed under towering cumulus
over and near the Interstate 75 corridor, as well as to the east over
southeastern Kentucky. Have added sprinkles to the forecast grids
and text forecast products for the next couple of hours. These
showers will dissipate with the continued loss of daytime heating.

UPDATE Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

Sprinkles and very isolated light showers have developed over the
high terrain in southeast KY, and have updated the forecast to
include a mention of this early this evening. They should die out
as surface based instability it lost.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

Surface high pressure maintains its dominant influence across much
of the CONUS, a pattern that has continuously yielded warm
temperatures and dry weather for the forecast area. Locally, current
temperatures have already climbed into the low to mid-80s under
mostly sunny skies.

Given the minimal change in the overall synoptic pattern, the near-
term forecast largely mirrors recent conditions. Both today and
tomorrow will feature high temperatures in the low to mid-90s, with
heat indices approaching the upper 90s each day and even to 100
degrees mainly Sunday afternoon. Morning and early afternoon CAM
suite continues to show very isolated hints of showers and
thunderstorms developing this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon;
however, confidence in widespread activity remains low. Should any
cells manage to form, they are expected to dissipate around sunset.
Overnight lows for tonight and tomorrow night will remain steady,
falling into the mid to upper 60s, accompanied by widespread areas
of river valley fog due to radiational cooling and moisture pooling
in low-lying terrain.

A notable pattern shift is anticipated towards the end of the
forecast period. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
track across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, this will be accompanied by the approach of a surface low-
pressure system and its associated cold front towards our region.
This frontal system will bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms, primarily marking the beginning of the long-term
forecast period. This signifies the breakdown of the persistent
upper-level ridge and the introduction of a more active weather
pattern.

In summary, surface high pressure will sustain mostly dry weather,
with high temperatures consistently climbing into the low to mid-
90s. Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid-60s, with areas
of valley fog expected. A cold front is forecast to approach the
area by Sunday, bringing increased rain chances for early next
week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

Upper level ridging retreating off the southeast coast and a series
of shortwave troughs transiting the Midwest and northeast CONUS will
allow troughing aloft to expand southward over the eastern CONUS
during the early to mid-week time frame. This will also support a
surface cold front which will approach the Ohio valley from the
north, but stall before reaching us. Increasing flow aloft, falling
geopotential heights, and the proximity of the boundary to our north
will result in a more favorable environment for convective precip
for our local area, with a diurnal cycle to a great extent.

The initial upper trough supporting the front is expected to weaken
and lift out to the northeast as another more significant trough
drops southeast in the upper Midwest as the weekend starts. With the
front losing its upper support, it will further weaken, and it`s
still unclear how far south the frontal remnants will make it at the
end of the week. With or without a weak frontal passage, rising
geopotential heights and weaker flow aloft would suggest a potential
for less precip coverage Friday-Saturday. This is still supported by
lower QPF values on Friday and (especially) Saturday vs. Thursday in
the latest runs of the GFS and GFS ensemble. GFS MOS also continues
to show lower POP Friday-Saturday. While the latest available (00Z)
ECMWF doesn`t show lower QPF values until Saturday, its MOS shows
the POP already dropping off on Friday. The NBM and its cron-based
load into the forecast has not picked up on this drop in POP to any
great extent (yet), but it may in subsequent runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025

A few towering cumulus clouds have produced a few sprinkles in the
vicinity of KLOZ in the last couple of hours, but these will
dissipate over the next hour with the loss of daytime heating.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours,
perhaps temporarily interrupted by MVFR or IFR fog between 06z and
13z, with the best chances of that occurring at KSME and KLOZ,
The typical river valley fog will prevail, otherwise.

Once fog dissipates, terminals will return to VFR by 13z. Lastly,
light and variable winds are expected through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC