180
FXUS63 KJKL 141742
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
142 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost is possible late tonight into early Friday morning
  in sheltered rural valleys and hollows, away from mainstem
  rivers.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances arrive to start the
  weekend followed by a pattern shift that favors temperatures 10
  to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

Clouds are extensive over most of the area and temperatures are
slower to climb than was forecast. Have lowered today`s fcst max
temps a little bit based on the morning`s trends.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

Hourly grid were freshened up based on recent observations and
satellite trends. A general trend to a filling in the low clouds
over sections of eastern KY is occurring. Following that trend,
opted to to increase in sky cover this morning to early or mid
afternoon in the east compared to the previous NBM based forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 535 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

Early this morning, an upper level ridge extended from
Mexico/Southern Plains across the Central and Northern Plains to
Saskatchewan while an upper low was centered in Ontario with the
axis of the upper trough south across the mid Atlantic states to
the Carolinas to FL. Further north another upper low was located
in the vicinity of the Alberta/Saskatchewan/MT border area with
troughing south into sections of the Rockies/western Conus. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was centered in the Lake Ontario
to mid Atlantic coast with a cold front trailing into the Southeastern
states and then north in the High Plains. Sfc high pressure
extended from Ontario south through the MS Valley/western Great
Lakes and was building into the Lower OH and TV Valleys. Winds
across eastern KY as the night has progressed and at this point,
some low clouds were over Northeastern KY with another area in the
Big Sandy region to Black Mtn area. Temperatures in the deeper
valleys and low lying areas have fallen to the upper 30s to lower
40s while temperatures elsewhere ranged into the mid to upper
40s.

Today and tonight, 500 mb height rises are expected to occur
across the Commonwealth as the upper trough with an axis east of
eastern KY continues to move to and then off the eastern seaboard.
Behind that the upper ridge shifts across the Central Conus and
MS Valley and then into the eastern Conus while the upper low near
the US/Canadian border is progged to trek into Manitoba and an
associated shortwave trough crosses the Plains and Upper MS Valley
and nears the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley. The ridge
axis moves across eastern KY Friday morning followed by a
shortwave trough moving through the OH Valley and then some height
rises by the end of the period. At the surface, the ridge of high
pressure shifts across the Great Lakes, OH and TN Valleys and
into the Southeast/Southern Appalachians through tonight and then
south and east of the area to end the period. An area of low
pressure and the interaction of it with shortwaves moving across
the central Conus is expected to send the boundary currently south
of of the OH back north as a warm front and into the Lower OH
Valley and TN Valley by early Friday evening.

The northwest flow aloft and high pressure ushering a colder and
drier airmass for today will result in high temperatures trending
colder compared to Wednesday and about 10 degrees below normal for
mid May. A disturbance in the northwest flow and increase in low
level moisture should result in more in the way of cloud cover in
the eastern half of the area as compared to the west with this
cloud cover diminishing toward sunset this evening. Dewpoints
today should average in the 30s and with high pressure shifting
across the area tonight light winds and mostly clear to clear
skies are anticipated. This will set the stage for some patchy
frost in the more rural deeper valleys and hollows with fog more
favored along the larger creeks, rivers, and near lakes. If
afternoon mixed dewpoints end up below the current forecast the
areal extent of the frost concern could expand and trends will be
monitored. Weak return flow results in temperatures moderating
back to near normal for mid May on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

A strong area of high pressure and its parent ridging features
aloft look to strengthen over the SE CONUS this weekend, leaving
much of Kentucky in return flow. A series of shortwave
disturbances ejecting around the northwestern periphery of this
ridge and into the Greater Ohio River Valley will progressively
pull a warm front through our forecast area from Friday night into
Saturday. Chance PoPs spread northeast across the forecast area
as overrunning moisture arrives after midnight early on Saturday
morning.

The persistence and continued strengthening of southwesterly low
level flow behind Friday night`s boundary will pump a warm, moist
airmass into the area on Saturday morning. The front is likely to
stall out by midday, but a second, reinforcing disturbances arrives
later that afternoon and triggers additional storms. Saturday does
not look look like a total washout though, as this second round of
convection will likely be isolated to scattered in nature. Showers
and storms will have more instability to work with on Saturday than
they did on Friday night, but there are several limiting factors
present. The LREF depicts a south-north gradient of 500-1000 J/kg of
CAPE, but with increasing CIN the closer one gets to the
strengthening southeastern ridge. Shower/storm coverage will be
greater closer to the boundary, which is progged to be somewhere to
the north of the Mountain Parkway corridor on Saturday afternoon.
This overlaps with the greatest instability, but the rather weak
nature of the dynamics aloft does not favor sufficient bulk shear,
25KT per 00Z LREF mean for widespread organized updrafts. Thus,
Saturday`s convection appears pulsy, with a chance for small hail,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning in the strongest cells.
Some recent GEFS and ENS based AI severe convective hazard
probability guidance has somewhat higher probabilities into the OH
Valley in the vicinity of the anticipated boundary. SPC has the
northern portion of the CWA on the eastern extent of a Day 3
Marginal Risk. Trends will be monitored closely.

Once the boundary lifts well to the north of the forecast on
Saturday night, the area`s sensible weather will be driven primarily
by the further-strengthening ridge. The flow aloft will back further
and further towards the southwest as troughing digs deeper into the
Great Plains early next week. Such a synoptic pattern favors a
noticeable warming trend, and subsidence under the ridge favors
mostly clear skies and efficient diurnal warming processes on both
Sunday and Monday. The deterministic baseline NBM data has been
running too hot in this time frame, bringing temperatures into the
90s on Sunday. Taking a look at the broader probabilistic forecast
envelope, temperatures are more likely to reach the 90s on Monday
than on Sunday. Midlevel heights reach their maxima on Monday, and
there is greater probabilistic support for highs in the lower half
of the 90s by then. Following continued coordination with
neighboring WFOs and WPC, highs were capped in the upper 80s to
around 90 on Sunday and below 95 on Monday. Ridge-valley splits
and river valley fog will be possible both nights with the ridging
dominating.

While the flow aloft favors efficient warm air advection around the
ridge on Sunday and Monday, the more robust moisture return will
likely hold off late Monday night or Tuesday. This will limit the
magnitude of any associated heat risk concerns for Sunday to
Monday. However, record highs at the KJKL and KLOZ climate sites
could be threatened. The timing of this early-season heat
coincidentally aligns with the 2026 National Integrated Heat
Health Information System`s Heat Safety Week campaign. Interests
are accordingly encouraged to monitor official NWS social media
channels to learn more about heat-related impacts and heat safety
tips next week.

Deeper troughing emerges in the Plains on Tuesday and orients the
flow in manner that gives our area better access to Gulf moisture.
As the trough and its attending surface low eject into the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday, a cold front approaches Kentucky. That boundary
is likely to stall out to the west of our CWA, but the return flow
out ahead of it will yield widespread dewpoints around or in
excess of 60. The greater humidity in the atmospheric column will
correspond with increased cloud cover, so temperatures readings
on the thermometer will likely be a couple of degrees cooler than
what occurs on Monday. Highs in the upper 80s will combine with
the aforementioned dewpoints to produce plenty of instability for
isolated to scattered open warm sector storms on Tuesday afternoon
and evening. PoPs increase overnight into Wednesday as the front
sags southeast, and that frontal passage should facilitate a
return to more seasonably appropriate temperatures by mid to late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

VFR conditions were present at TAF issuance, but there were
ceilings mainly in the 3.5-5K ft AGL range generally near/east of
I-75. The ceilings will break up from west to east during the late
afternoon and early evening, leaving mostly clear skies to finish
the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS/JMW/JP
AVIATION...HAL