855
FXUS63 KJKL 081121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
621 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will be dense this morning, gradually lifting and
  disipating through 10 AM EST.

- The coldest airmass so far this season arrives on Sunday.

- The first snowflakes of the season are expected Sunday night
  into Monday, with some light accumulations possible, mainly on
  grass and elevated surfaces.

- With the snow showers Sunday night into Monday, locations above
  2000 feet near the Virginia border are the most likely area to
  have any travel impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 555 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

Early this morning, a shortwave rough was moving through the mid
and upper OH to Central Appalachians with shortwave ridging
having move into the Lower OH Valley within a broad trough over
the Central to eastern Conus located to the south of an upper low
west of James Bay. Additional shortwaves were upstream of the
area, with one nearing the mid MS Valley and additional
shortwaves in the Central Plains and Dakotas that were moving
around an upper ridge that extended north near the west Coast of
the Conus and into the Central to eastern Conus troughing. At the
surface, the cold front that crossed the area on Friday evening
is not located south and east of the area with sfc high pressure
over the TN to Lower OH Valley having lead to a decrease in winds
and some clearing. The result has been rather widespread dense fog
overnight with some low stratus in other areas following rainfall
on Friday and Friday evening. Many observations stations were
reporting dense fog with many KY Mesonet and KYTC cameras also
suggesting dense fog as well. The dense fog advisory that was in
effect for more northern and western areas was expanded southeast
as skies cleared nearer to the Tug Fork and VA border areas. This
dense fog advisory remains in effect through 10 AM EST.

The shortwave ridging should shift east of the area this morning
with the shortwaves moving into the Central Conus leading to the
upper level trough amplifying from the Great Lakes and MS Valley
this afternoon to early evening. A notable shortwave moving
through the trough should near the Lower OH Valley shortly after
dark and then track across the Lower OH Valley region tonight to
early on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure in
advance of this should track to the mid MS Valley this afternoon
and through the Lower OH Valley tonight and reach OH/middle OH
valley area late tonight. A cold front from this system trailing
south will cross the Commonwealth tonight and should be crossing
eastern KY near dawn on Sunday. Ahead of the front today once fog
lifts and dissipates within 2 to 3 hours after sunrise,
temperature should warm to around 5 degrees above normal today
though not quite as warm as ahead of the front on Friday. An
increase in clouds should occur late this evening into the
overnight ahead of the cold front and shortwave trough. It is
probable that some showers will also occur near or in advance of
the front.

A relative lull in shower chances are anticipated on Sunday
morning behind the front. However, a period of cold air advection
will commence and will begin in earnest as another shortwave
approaches eastern KY around midday on Sunday and then moves into
the region during the afternoon to early evening. The heating of
the day combined with the steepening lapse rates and low to mid
level moisture should result in scattered to numerous showers
during the afternoon to early evening. At the highest elevations,
such as Black Mtn, 850 temperatures should drop below 0C during
the mid to late afternoon with a mix and then changeover to snow
showers there before dark on Sunday evening. Temperatures should
peak by midday to early afternoon in all areas, generally in the
50s before dropping back to the low to 40s below 2000 feet before
sunset. Temperatures in the higher elevations will drop into the
30s with low 30s above 3500 feet. A light dusting of snow could
occur on top of Black Mtn before dark on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 600 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

The period is expected to begin with an enlongated upper level low
from east of Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes vicinity
within an upper level trough the axis of which should extend
through the MS Valley and encompass portions of the Central and
Eastern Conus. At that point, a shortwave trough is progged to be
rotating across east KY with another upstream entering the Lower
OH Valley and an upper low centered upstream of that. Further west
an upper level ridge is expected to extend across much of the
western Conus. Upstream of that ridge another upper trough should
be nearing the BC and Pacific northwest cost. At the surface, an
are of low pressure is expected to be centered over the mid
Atlantic vicinity with the cold front that will have crossed
eastern KY during the short term period approaching the eastern
seaboard. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to
be centered over the Dakotas and extend through much of the
Plains/Central Conus. Low to mid level moisture is progged to be
over the region with west to northwest upslope flow.

Sunday night to Monday night, a couple of shortwaves will cross
the OH Valley/eastern KY Monday evening into Monday night while
the upper level low is progged to track into the OH Valley region
for Monday. Cold air advection that will have begun during the
short term period will continue to end the weekend on Sunday night
with 850 mb temperatures falling through the single digits below
0C. 850 mb temperatures should near about -10C during the day on
Monday. The will steepen lapse rates and when combined with the
passing shortwaves and upslope flow along with daytime heating on
Monday will result in scattered to numerous showers at times that
should mix with and change to snow showers in all areas through
the evening to shortly after midnight. The upper low should move
east of eastern KY on Monday night with a gradual decrease in moisture
and snow showers and/or flurries at at that point. With the
airmass that cold, it is likely that near record coldest high
temperatures for the 10th of November will occur at both London
and Jackson. In addition, pending the coverage of snow showers
late Sunday night into early on Monday, for some locations, very
light accumulations of a dusting of snow may occur on grass and
elevated surfaces as temperatures are forecast to drop into the
mid to upper 20s. Temperatures will struggle to get to the mid 30s
on Monday in many areas (roughly 25 degrees below normal), but
after mid morning, the associated solar insolation/heating should
limit or inhibit any accumulations for snow showers that develop
during the day on Monday. However, locations above 2000 feet will
likely remain below freezing all day on Monday. In these areas
some travel impacts may occur and an inch or two of accumulation
may occur from Sunday evening into Monday evening. The degree of
clearing and lingering snow showers and/or flurries into Monday
evening leads to some uncertainty in low temperatures for the more
eastern locations that night. Nevertheless, lows should be the
coldest lows experienced so far this fall.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, a shortwave ridge moves across the
into the area with 500 mb height rises anticipated Tuesday into
Tuesday evening as the pattern trends toward less amplification.
However, a broad upper trough should linger into the MS Valley
and eastern Conus to the south of an upper low in the vicinity of
Hudson and James Bay. Temperatures will remain below normal, with
highs on the order of 15 to 20 degrees below normal for Tuesday
with further moderation on Wednesday ahead of an approaching
shortwave and cold front. This front will cross eastern KY later
Wednesday into Wednesday night, but the airmass will be more
moderate compared to the late weekend/early week airmass.

Thursday to Friday, the western ridge should move east toward the
Plains while the upper low and trough in Canada move east and the
axis of this trough moves well east. Sfc high pressure will build
from the Central Conus into the OH Valley and Southern
Appalachians before shifting southeast of the area to end the
period on Friday. Upper ridging will generally dominate during the
Thursday to Friday period as well. Temperatures should be within 5
degrees of normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

The precipitation with the front has ended, but MVFR or worse
ceilings and will probably persist. This is especially true where
clearing and a moist ground has led to areas of dense fog and low
stratus developing. Expect these conditions to impact all TAF
sites for a time into the morning, resulting in IFR or worse
conditions. Everything improves to VFR, though, after 14 or 15Z.
Look for winds to be out of the west to southwest and generally
less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF