970
FXUS63 KJKL 111150
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
750 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend continues through Friday.

- Low relative humidity and an increase in winds will result in
  near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and again
  on Wednesday afternoons.

- A cold front is expected to bring showers and possibly thunderstorms
  during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025

Refreshed hourly forecast with the latest observations. No
substantive changes to the forecast are warranted at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025

Satellite imagery shows cloud-free skies across the Eastern Kentucky
Coalfields and adjacent areas early this morning. These clear
skies along with light winds and dry air have allowed for strong
radiative cooling and the formation of a sharp ridge-valley
temperature split. Thermometers range from the mid 20s/low 30s in
sheltered valleys to the mid 40s to around 50F over thermal belt
ridgetops/slopes. A 500H low and its surface reflection are
departing off the Southeast Coast. In the wake of the low, 500H
ridging extends into the Southern Plains, quasi-zonal flow resides
over the Central Plains and 500H trough is skimming through the
Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes. Translating down to the
surface, high pressure ridging extends from an ~1018 mb high over
western Gulf of America northeastward through the Tennessee
Valley into the Central Appalachians. Well to our north, an ~989 mb
low is passing south of James Bay with a cold front extending
southwest through Wisconsin and beyond into Kansas and the High
Plains of eastern Colorado.

As the these upper-level systems translate east, the high pressure will
skim the Gulf Coast, cross the Florida Peninsula, and drift to over
the northern Bahamas by the end of the short-term period Wednesday
evening. Meanwhile, the surface low to our north will lift into
Quebec and drag the cold front into the Ohio Valley later today
and tonight. Guidance suggests that this boundary will stall out
along/north of the Ohio River toward daybreak on Wednesday before
gradually retreating back to the north through the remainder of
the day. As that boundary approaches today and then retreats on
Wednesday, there will be a tightening of the surface pressure
gradient and also an uptick in the southwesterly low-level jet
ahead of the boundary. This will lead to stronger surface gusts at
peak mixing both today and tomorrow, but should still be below
Red Flag criteria thresholds at nearly all locations. With only
marginal moisture return, relative humidity levels are likely to
reach critically low values (25% or lower) in a vast majority of
the area this afternoon and likely again on Wednesday as well. In
the 11/00z HREF, the only locations which register a small chance
(generally under 30%) of reaching Red Flag criteria are over/west
of the Pottsville Escarpment and also near/ north of I-64 this
afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon.

In sensible terms, look for mainly clear skies through tonight.
The only exception could be a few patches of high clouds and low-
mid clouds near/north of the Mountain Parkway late tonight. High
clouds are then expected across the entire area on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be very mild, warming into the mid 70s during
the afternoon each day and cooling into the mid 30s (coldest
hollows) to lower 50s (thermal belt ridges/slopes) tonight. Winds
will generally be southwesterly at 5 to 10 mph with gusts of 10 to
20 mph during the midday/afternoon. Winds cloud be locally a bit
stronger over/west of the Daniel Boone National Forecast and also
near/north of I-64. Nighttime winds will generally be light around
5 mph or less. Humidity levels will remain low, between 18 and 28
percent and 20 to 30 percent this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon,
respectively.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure over the area
which will continue to keep warmer temperatures and dry weather over
the area. However, through Thursday morning, high pressure will
breakdown as a weak surface low approaches the area. This feature
continues to trend on the weaker side as PoP chances are expected to
be 30% or less across the area. Once the system moves off to the
east, surface high pressure will build back into the region bringing
back dry weather and even warmer temperatures.

While the first couple of days of the period are forecast to be
relatively quiet, attention will turn to the next potential weather
maker as by Friday afternoon, a potent surface low will eject off
the Rockies into the Central Plains. This system will quickly
traverse the CONUS and lift northeast into the Upper Midwest.
Extending from the system, the warm front will be well to the north
but behind the front, the area will be under to warm sector regime
leading to the warm temperatures and a surge of Gulf moisture
courtesy of a potent LLJ. These LLJ winds will bring increased
surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front and these wind
gusts could be upwards of 25 to 30 mph beginning Friday afternoon
and continuing through Saturday night. As the system lifts north,
the cold front will gradually track to the east and be on the
doorstep of the CWA by early Saturday morning. Increasing showers
are expected through the day with the potential for strong to even a
severe storm or two. While the threat of severe weather is
conditional, forecast instability and shear values are supportive of
the potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. A reinforcing shot of showers and storms will be possible
late Saturday night into Sunday morning as another system quickly
develops along the departing cold front and moves into the forecast
area. With this system and associated convection, heavy rain is
expected and total rainfall, from Friday night through Sunday night,
will range from just under 2.00" near the Cumberland Plateau and
decreasing to near an inch along the Big Sandy and Tug Fork Basins.
High pressure will build back into the region for early Monday
morning and will persist through the end of the forecast period.

Overall the period will feature a weak system moving through the
area on Thursday. A second and much stronger, system is forecast to
impact the region from Friday through the weekend before high
pressure returns for early next week. Temperatures will run above
average for the first part of the period as highs will climb to near
80 for Friday and Saturday before a cold front brings cooler
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows will follow this
trend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies will prevail through the
period. Look for light winds to pick up from the southwest at 5 to
10 kts by midday with a few gusts up into the mid teens and
locally near 20kts near/north of the I-64 corridor.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GREIF