656
FXUS63 KJKL 131905
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
305 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch is in effect due to the threat of high water and
  isolated flash flooding. The highest risk is in far southeastern
  Kentucky.

- Above average temperatures return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

A cold front is currently approaching the region from the northwest.
Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms have developed and are
expected to continue through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
have climbed into the mid-80s north of the Mountain Parkway, while
areas south of the Parkway, where consistent rain has fallen, are
seeing temperatures in the upper 70s.

The front will continue to approach, bringing ongoing showers and
storms for the remainder of the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the
front still indicate a potential for heavy rain this afternoon.
Precipitable water amounts remain near 2.00 inches, and tall, skinny
CAPE profiles exist. However, as the afternoon progresses, winds
will shift to the west, minimizing moisture advection and causing
the threat of flash flooding to diminish. In addition to the heavy
rainfall, a minimal severe weather threat exists. The fronts forcing
and forecast SBCAPE values of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg are present, but
the lack of high effective bulk shear values significantly reduces
the potential for severe storms. Temperatures will climb into the
mid-80s. Showers and storms will taper off this evening, leading to
a quiet overnight. Guidance suggests that cloud cover may persist
overnight, limiting fog development. However, if any clearing
occurs, fog will be possible in those areas.

Thursday will bring another day of showers and storms as quasi-zonal
flow becomes established and the cold front stalls out along the
Ohio River. This stalled boundary will be the focus for convection
Thursday afternoon. Fortunately, PW values are lower on Thursday,
but heavy rainfall is still possible. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are still a concern due to Wednesdays rainfall and any
potential rain on Thursday. Similarly, highs will climb into the mid-
80s, and showers and storms will dissipate after sunset. Guidance is
in better agreement for Thursday night, showing clearing clouds and
the development of widespread, and in some places, dense fog.

The period will be highlighted by heavy rain and the potential for
flash flooding. Temperatures will be slightly above average, with
highs in the mid-80s and overnight lows in the low to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

The long-term forecast period brings a shift in the synoptic flow
pattern as quasi-zonal flow breaks down and an upper-level ridge
builds into the region. Concurrently, a surface high-pressure system
will move in, leading to rising temperatures and a reduced threat
for showers and storms starting Friday and continuing through the
weekend. High temperatures will begin to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100 degrees over the weekend.
While shower and thunderstorm chances will still exist, they will be
isolated to scattered in nature. Any showers or storms will
dissipate overnight, and the resulting clearing will allow for the
development of overnight valley fog, with lows falling into the mid
to upper 60s.

Starting Sunday morning, an upper-level trough will track across
southern Canada and the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will drop
southeastward toward the Commonwealth on Sunday and Monday, before
stalling out along the Ohio River as the ridge builds to the south
of the area. This frontal forcing will increase precipitation
chances for Monday and Tuesday.

The main highlights of the long-term forecast are the increasing
heat through the weekend and the continued threat of afternoon
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

TAFs are mostly MVFR as MVFR CIGS are in place across much of
eastern Kentucky. CIGS are forecast to climb into VFR this
afternoon but with showers and storms increasing in coverage; the
sites will be in between MVFR and VFR through the early evening.
Once showers dissipate, low-end VFR conditions are forecast;
however, as a cold front approaches the area, CIGS will fall into
MVFR/IFR through the overnight with fog developing late. CIGS and
VIS are expected to improve after 14Z with terminals slowly
improving to VFR for the early afternoon. Showers and storms are
expected to redevelop toward the end of the TAF period after 16Z.
Winds are forecast to be mostly light and variable outside of
ongoing convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ084>088-110-113-
115>118-120.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST