760
FXUS63 KJKL 311737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
137 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will return to areas mainly south of the Hal
  Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 later this evening through Monday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over
  the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

Updated the forecast with the latest observational data from
around the area. No major changes were made.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure has nudged enough into
eastern Kentucky from the northeast to push the lingering front
southwest of the JKL CWA. This has made for a good night of
radiational cooling for most of the area resulting in a decent
ridge to valley temperature split. Specifically, readings vary
from the upper 40s in the sheltered northeast hollows to the
lower 60s in the open areas of the southwest. Meanwhile, amid
light to calm winds, dewpoints range from the mid 30s north to the
upper 50s near Lake Cumberland. Satellite does show some evidence
of fog developing in the valleys.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
fairly good agreement aloft, through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict northeast troughing at 5h
strengthening through the start of the work week. This helps to
retrograde the ridging that kept most of the area dry on Saturday
leading to more mid-level energy crossing into this part of the
state in northwest flow as early as this evening. The eastern
trough nudges toward Kentucky by the end of the period bringing
height falls and an impulse from the north for Monday evening.
This process is handled a bit differently in the various models
leading to some discrepancies in the sensible weather from their
solutions and the NBM initialization. Overall, the NBM was kept as
the starting point for the short term grids with adjustments to
favor the CAMs solutions for PoPs and thunder chances on Monday
afternoon and evening compared to the more spotty and jumpy NBM.

Sensible weather features mostly dry and comfortable weather for
eastern Kentucky through the start of the week. Any shower or
thunderstorm chances will be confined to the fringes of the area -
closer to the stalled front to the southwest late this afternoon
and tonight with small chances on Monday afternoon from the
approaching impulse aloft. On account of more in the ways of
clouds tonight did not depict much of a ridge to valley
difference, unlike this morning and most other nights of the
upcoming week. Today will be the warmer day of the period with low
80s common for highs while cooler air arrives for the north on
Monday knocking down expected high temperatures there by about 5
degrees.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
including some more broadbrushed PoP and thunder details from the
latest consensus CAMs guidance starting late this afternoon
through Monday evening. As for temperatures and dewpoints, they
were adjusted for terrain aspects this morning, but not so much
tonight on account of more (and thicker) clouds anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

The main change to the start of the extended forecast this
morning was to include more terrain details at night owing to a
drier and clearer air mass. Did also include more in the way of
valley fog each night. The trend for a bit more chances of showers
or storms on Tuesday afternoon in the east was also noted and it
makes sense given the impact of the inbound retrograding eastern
5h trough and its ample energy passing overhead. Ridging then
looks to keep things dry and quiet through the end of the work
week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long-term period opens Monday morning with the 30/12z model suite
in good agreement. Upper level ridging will extend northward from
Texas to toward Minnesota where a col separates it from an ~585
dam high centered near/over Churchill, Manitoba. On the east side
of the ridge, troughing extends from an ~540 dam low east of
Labrador southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic and Central
Appalachians. Meanwhile, on the western side of the ridge, an
~570 dam low is spinning over northwestern Montana. At the
surface, a wavering frontal boundary will extend from a weak
~1013 mb surface low off Cape Cod southwest to along the
Kentucky-Tennessee border and then northwest to a triple point
low north of Kansas City, Missouri. Cool Canadian high pressure
lies cradled north of the stalled front and is centered well to
our north over the Hudson Bay.

The eastern trough will remain positively tilted as it digs southward
through mid-week and eventually pinches off into a closed low
over the Carolinas by around Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, the
upstream 500 hPa ridge will merge with the Canadian high, briefly
taking on an omega-like appearance, as it deamplifies. As a
result, the wavering frontal boundary will initially linger over
the Cumberland River basin for the first part of the day on Monday
before making a decisive push well south of the area by Tuesday
and Wednesday. In its wake, surface high pressure will drop south
from the Hudson Bay to over the Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday and
over the Central Appalachians on Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper
low over the northern Rockies will gradually press in from the
west and open up as the upper level ridge continues to subside
late week. While the specific details become less certain due to
increasing model disparity, it generally appears that a surface
low with this trough will pass from Central to Eastern Canada
while its trailing cold front sags southward toward the Ohio
Valley by the week`s end, perhaps with the aid of a reinforcing
Pacific shortwave trough trailing behind the remnants of the
original parent low.

Aside from the threat of some rain to start the week on Monday and
again on Saturday, the bulk of the week is shaping up to be fair and
mild. In sensible terms, look for the threat of showers (20 to 50
percent chance) and possibly a weak thunderstorm to diminish from
north to south during the afternoon on Monday -- rain chances
will primarily be confined to near and south of the Mountain
Parkway corridor. Fair, dry, and seasonally mild days and cool,
clear nights with fog in the favored valley locales follow from
Monday night through Friday. Highs will range from the mid 70s to
low 80s through Wednesday, then warming into the lower and middle
80s for Thursday and Friday. Nighttime lows range from the mid 40s
to mid 50s beginning Monday night and should remain at similar
levels through Wednesday night before also moderating into the 50s
to near 60F. Overall, it should be a great week for gardening,
mowing the lawn, or making hay! Rain chances then return Friday
night and Saturday with temperatures remaining at similar levels
(highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows not far from 60F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 05Z this evening. A
disturbance is expected to lead to increasing moisture from the
south and west where convection/low clouds could move into, or
develop, in areas near KSME and KLOZ. A late night PROB30 has been
added to the TAFs of those two terminals. Winds through the
period will be light and variable. Fog may develop overnight but
should remain confined to the valleys due to elevated winds aloft,
though there is an outside chance fog could cause a reduction at
KSME and KLOZ between 06-12Z. Ceilings should gradually improve
after 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF/GINNICK