384
FXUS63 KJKL 300545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is forecast through mid week, along with a warming
  trend. Heat indices may top 100 in many locations Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Thursday into
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Minor adjustments were made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints
to account for valley locations already having decoupled over the
last hour to 90 minutes. This led to some adjustments to hourly
temperatures over the next several hours and for a few of the
typical cold spots a downward adjustment of min T by a degree or
two when factoring peak heating/mixing crossover temperatures.
Valley fog mainly along the rivers, larger creeks, and lake
developing around or shortly after midnight will be the main
notable sensible weather tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

A strong upper high ridging northward from the southern plains
late today will slowly shift eastward to the mid Mississippi/lower
Ohio valley region by Monday morning, with ridging extending north
into Ontario. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will persist to our
east, with our low level flow originating out of the high without
traversing the gulf. Despite little in the way of low level
temperature advection, strong sunshine on Sunday and warming
aloft beneath rising geopotential heights will allow for a warming
trend to continue as the air mass modifies. A lack of moisture
flowing at us from the gulf will only allow for a gradual climb
in dew points overall as the air mass modifies. With decent
radiating conditions, this will still allow low temps well into
the 60s, especially in valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Ridging remains the dominant synoptic weather feature at the start
of the long term forecast period, with the latest guidance
collectively resolving a 595 decameter ridge directly above the
commonwealth from Monday to Wednesday. Midlevel heights of this
magnitude rank above the 99th percentile of model climatology in the
blended LREF ensemble, and given that such values are the model
consensus, confidence is high that the Commonwealth of Kentucky will
experience hot and dry sensible weather conditions this week. The
ridging should eventually begin to break down by the end of the
period, but this is marked with a potential transition to more
active northwesterly flow. Ridge-riding disturbances allow chances
for showers and storms to reenter the forecast for Thursday, Friday,
and Saturday, but confidence in the forecast for wet weather at the
end of the period is lower than it is for hot weather at the
beginning.

Eastern Kentucky is positioned directly to the east of the mid/upper
level ridge axis. The related increase in subsidence aloft will
favor efficient diurnal processes for as long as the pattern
persists. Expect mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures
accordingly, with ridge-valley temperature splits and river valley
fog emerging at night. Modeled 850mb temperatures climb above the
20 degree Celsius mark on Monday, remain elevated on Tuesday, and
then peak closer to 23 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. At the surface,
this should translate to widespread highs in the lower half of the
90s on Monday and Tuesday before some locations flirt with the upper
90s on Wednesday. The warmest temperatures will likely occur in the
northern half of the forecast area (where heights and 850mb temps
are the greatest) and in the deepest river valleys (where diurnal
mixing will be deepest). Blended NBM temperatures are likely too
warm, and dewpoints likely too moist. As drier air mixes down from
the midlevels, dewpoints will likely remain below the 70 degree
line. Heat indices may remain below the 105 degree heat headline
criteria mark, but it will still feel very hot outside. There won`t
be much relief at night either, with ridge-valley splits above/below
the 70 degree mark. Interests with outdoor plans (such as high
school sports, recreational hikes, or camping) are encouraged to
review heat safety information at weather.gov/safety/heat in the
coming days. Take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, stay
hydrated, and continue to monitor for forecast updates.

The northeastern periphery of the ridge begins to flatten on
Thursday, which will allow a NW flow regime to set up over the Ohio
River Valley. A series of shortwave impulses will then propagate
around the ridge and towards the forecast area headed into next
weekend, bringing about the next remarkable chances for showers and
storms. While 850mb temperatures will trend towards the 20C mark and
midlevel heights are progged to drop back down towards 590dm by
then, these disturbances will still be interacting with a seasonably
warm airmass. Models disagree on the amount of moisture available
during this pattern shift emerges, but if enough modified tropical
moisture makes it around the ridge and into the column, this late
period activity will need to be monitored closely. The available
machine learning, analog-based, and AI-enhanced long-range
convective guidance is hinting at more active weather in the Greater
Appalachians by the end of the period, but it is too early to
pinpoint specific timing and hazard details. With that being said,
the clouds and rain-cooled air associated with any convective
activity would likely mitigate the Major HeatRisk analyzed at the
beginning of the forecast period. Expect thermometer readings closer
to climatological norms for the holiday weekend, but monitor for
updates to the convective forecast while planning any outdoor
activities for Friday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

Sfc and upper level ridging will keep the terminals VFR for the
period along with light winds. The exception will be valley fog
resulting in MVFR to IFR or in some cases even worse through 14Z.
However, this is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP/GREIF