792
FXUS63 KJKL 231514
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1114 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a potential for showers and
  thunderstorms to most of the forecast area this weekend, with
  the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.

- A cool and dry air mass more typical of late September or early
  October will arrive by Monday and persist through the new work
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025

Have removed thunder from the forecast in our far northwest
counties. Drier air aloft and a mid level warm layer around 700 mb
will probably either cap convection or hinder updrafts to the
point of keeping any precip as just showers.

UPDATE Issued at 903 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025

Isolated showers have developed ahead of schedule in our southern
counties, and the introduction of precip in the forecast has been
moved up by a couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025

A surface high-pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, continues to
influence weather across much of the eastern CONUS. Further to the
northwest, a surface low is moving through southern Canada, and
trailing behind it, a cold front extends southwestward into the
Central Plains. Locally, the area is dominated by this surface high-
pressure system, which is bringing mostly clear and dry weather
overnight. Areas of locally dense river valley fog are beginning to
show up on satellite imagery and will persist through the early
morning before burning off with sunrise. Should fog continue to
develop and increase in coverage, an SPS will likely be needed to
address the potential for dense fog through sunrise.

Today, the surface high-pressure system will shift to the east as
the cold front approaches the area. With the fronts approach, the
region will be placed in the warm sector, leading to highs in the
upper 80s. Increasing chances for showers and storms are expected
this afternoon and evening, and these will continue through the
overnight hours into Sunday.

The slow-moving cold front is forecast to continue tracking through
the CWA during the day Sunday before frontal passage occurs late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. A surface high-pressure
system is then forecast to build into the region behind the exiting
front. The latest model guidance shows QPF totals continuing to
decrease and are now meager, ranging from a trace in the Bluegrass
region to near 0.75 inches in the southeast.

The period will be highlighted by the approach of a cold front.
Dwindling moisture will keep overall rainfall totals to a minimum.
Temperatures will remain above average, with daytime highs in the
mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The
post-frontal high pressure will bring a cooldown toward the end of
the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025

Once the front exits the area early Monday morning, a surface high-
pressure system will build into the region. Upper-level west-to-
northwesterly flow will lead to CAA behind the front, which will
usher in a more fall-like weather pattern. Starting Monday and
continuing through Thursday, dry weather is expected. The most
significant change will be a temperature drop of 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. Highs on Monday will only climb into the low to mid-
70s, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, with
some of the coldest valleys potentially seeing temperatures in the
upper 40s on a clear night.

Temperatures will gradually begin to return to warmer values by
Thursday as the high shifts to the east, allowing flow around the
high to introduce warmer southerly flow. Temperatures will climb
from the mid-70s to the upper 70s and low 80s as this southerly flow
is established. Increasing moisture is also expected. The latest
model guidance is trending drier for the end of the period, thus
keeping much of the forecast dry. However, there are some
indications of a possible shortwave that could bring renewed
precipitation chances toward the end of the period.

The period will be highlighted by the slow-moving cold front exiting
the region, with a rapid transition to more fall-like weather
filling in behind it. Dry weather and below-average temperatures
will remain entrenched through midweek before temperatures begin to
climb back toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025

A combination of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions exist across all TAF
sites with this 12Z issuance due to valley fog. Once fog burns
off, sites will move into VFR but increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances will exist through the afternoon. Reduction
in category will be possible should a shower or storm impact a
terminal. Shower and storm chances will persist through much of
the TAF but will begin to taper off after 04Z/Sunday. Winds will
be light and variable through the period but convection could
create gusty and erratic winds for a short period of time. Areas
that see precipitation could be great candidates for fog again
overnight tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST