146
FXUS63 KJKL 052002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal high temperatures persist today, followed by highs
  near to slightly below normal for the weekend.

- Hazy skies linger from distant wildfire smoke aloft.

- Shower and storm chances stay around through the upcoming
  weekend. Some strong storms are possible this evening, and
  especially for Fri and Sat with the potential for heavy rain and
  gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 402 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025

Currently, a frontal boundary stretches through the Ohio Valley into
the mid Mississippi Valley, with associated rainfall stretching
across the region. Showers, some producing lighting at this point,
have started to crop up across the CWA, aided by diurnal heating.
With a decent amount of DCAPE to work with, especially in the far
northeastern part of or area, strong downdrafts are possible with
these storms. Expect convection to continue into the evening before
losing steam into the night with the loss of solar heating.

Models are in pretty good agreement in their depiction of the
overall synoptic pattern through the short term. Broad troughing
stretched across most of the CONUS has pushed the upper level ridge
to our east, bringing height falls across the region. Upper level
flow will then gradually flatten going into Friday, leaving us in a
more quasi-zonal flow regime for the remainder of the short term
period. Meanwhile, a couple waves of energy will end up traveling
through that overall flow pattern. The main one to impact us
during the short term is progged to traverse the area Friday
evening into the overnight. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will be slowly sinking southward through the Ohio Valley, serving
a focus for showers and storms across the region, and occasionally
being reinforced by the previously mentioned waves of energy
aloft.

Putting all that together in terms of sensible weather, showers and
storm chances will continue into the evening but will wane with the
loss of daytime heating. Tonight will be a humid and mild night.
Lows will be in the mid 60s, and with mostly cloudy skies expected,
a ridge-valley split is not anticipated, nor are more broad areas
of fog. However, there is the small chance for a patch or two if
an area is able to avoid the clouds and see clearer skies for long
enough. Tomorrow morning starts off pretty benign, but chances
for showers and storms, some possibly severe, return heading into
the afternoon and overnight. Hi-res guidance is suggesting some
spotty convection in the afternoon (generally after 15z), aligning
with peak diurnal heating. An MCS will be ongoing to our west
earlier in the day and and associated MCV is expected to develop
and hold together into East Kentucky. The CAMs vary a little on
exact timing but generally show our area being impacted late in
the evening into the overnight hours. While there is a chance for
earlier convection to sap some of it, still expect this convection
to have plenty of instability to work with (HREF showing mean CAPE
values upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/kg), and will also be helped by
an area of enhanced mid-level winds traveling the region. Strong
to damaging wind gusts are by far the primary concern with these
storms, but some hail can`t be ruled out, particularly in our
western counties. There is a lot of moisture available for these
storms, with PWATs reaching up into the 90th percentile when
compared to climatology. That combined with the potential for
areas to receive repeated rounds of rainfall, raise the concern
for heavy downpours leading to localized hydro issues as well,
warranting the marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC.
Temperatures tomorrow afternoon are expected to be relatively
cooler, at least compared to the recent couple of days, with highs
in the low to mid 80s. Nighttime lows Friday night will once
again be mild in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025

A trailing cold front passing through the area Saturday will produce
rounds of showers and storms from the afternoon through the evening,
some of which could produce damaging gusty winds, and isolated
instances of high water or flash flooding from thunderstorms. As
such the SPC has the area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms generally along and south of a line from Somerset to
Harlan. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the remainder
of Eastern Kentucky. The WPC also has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
4) for excessive rainfall generally along and south of I-64.

By Sunday, an upper level low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
lift and interact with a larger, more potent upper level low over
the Northern Plains. As a result a warm front will slowly progress
across the state, but may struggle to push north through the day.
Areas of showers and storms are anticipated to hug the frontal
boundary through the morning and afternoon, though most areas
will see a tenth or two. Showers look to tapper off overnight as
the overall system progress east of the area.

Monday, two upper level lows over the Northern Plains and Upper
Great Lakes regions look to play out a large scale Fujiwhara Effect,
rotating around each other. The upper level low over the Upper
Great Lakes region will have a trailing cold front passing through
the Ohio and Mississippi Valley during the day. This cold front
will move across Eastern Kentucky through Monday, producing
showers and thunderstorms. While this occurs the upper level low
over the Northern Plains ejects south and east into the Ohio
Valley Monday evening. This is expected to provide a resurgence of
showers and storms through Tuesday morning.

Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure tries to build in across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, however, moisture sneaks in from the
south, with some moisture riding a cold front near or just east of
the area. This could lead to a low end chance of showers or
thundershowers Wednesday.

Thursday, a low over the Ozarks, and Mid-Mississippi Valley will
lift north into the Ohio Valley, while the systems occluded front
slowly lifts across Eastern Kentucky, provided the next chances
for showers.

Temperatures generally remain in the upper 70s to low 80s thorough
the extended, with lows in the mid to upper 60s through the weekend,
and upper 50s to low 60s through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025

Clouds are beginning to spread over the CWA, with ceilings
generally in the 4k to 6k range. Some convection is already
starting to bubble up, and has the chance to brush TAF sites
through the afternoon and into the evening. Have included a
PROB30 group to include that chance. Chances for storms fade
overnight with the loss of daytime heating, but pick back up again
tomorrow afternoon near the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
generally light and variable, but a quick higher gust could be
seen if a storm rolls over a TAF site.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAS