651
FXUS63 KJKL 112350 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A substantial warming trend will last into the weekend, with
  above normal temperatures eventually arriving.

- The next possibility of precipitation (in the form of rain) is
  not until Friday or Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows southern high pressure mostly in control
of the weather for eastern Kentucky. A passing upper wave is
providing some mid level clouds, virga, and perhaps a stray flurry
- north - to the area. Winds on the north side of the high have
switched to the south southwest and helped to warm up this part of
the state from bitter cold morning lows in the upper teens and
low 20s. Specifically, after hitting the upper 30s and lower 40s
most places for highs readings are now starting to retreat back
into the mid and upper 30s, most places. Meanwhile, amid nearly
south winds of around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph, dewpoints are
generally in the upper teens to low 20s. Have updated the forecast
primarily to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids. Did also add a touch of flurries to the northern part of
the CWA this evening should some of that virga make it to the sfc
- despite the large dewpoint depressions of the boundary layer.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 350 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

The large system which brought our snow and unseasonable early
season cold weather continues to depart through eastern Canada.
Surface high pressure is passing to our south over FL, while low
pressure is situated well to our north. The flow between the two
is beginning to bring us warm air advection as the flow aloft
deamplifies. The strong flow makes for a challenging low
temperatures forecast for tonight, especially for valleys. It is
difficult for our eastern valleys to remain mixed, even with
decent low level flow. However, with winds near 50 kts expected
just off the surface tonight, it will make it more difficult not
to mix. Have hedged bets and used forecast mins in between what
they would be with good decoupling vs. mixing.

Overnight warm air advection should set us up with a steep
inversion on Wednesday morning. With abundant sunshine forecast,
this should allow for a daytime warm-up with highs approaching
seasonal norms. A very weak cold front is expected to arrive
beneath west northwest flow aloft during the day and transition
across the Appalachians, but its effects will be almost
indiscernible. It will only slow down a longer term
warming/moistening trend.

Low level flow should be weaker on Wednesday night than tonight,
making it easier for more valleys to decouple. This may allow for
colder temperatures in our western valleys, while eastern valleys
become limited in part due to higher dew points than tonight.
There is also potential for some high clouds on Wednesday night
due to warm air advection and a jet streak, but it`s questionable
how much this would effect radiating.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with 500 hPa troughing
over Eastern Canada and the Eastern CONUS with a ridge axis
extending from Mexico northward across the High Plains. At the
surface, these features manifest as deep low pressure departing
far to the northeast over the Canadian Maritimes, while a
sprawling area of high pressure is centered over Eastern Tennessee
but extends across adjacent regions. Another trough will be
making landfall along the Pacific Coast.

Model agreement is good through Friday. The upper trough to our
northeast will close off and drift over the Atlantic Provinces
while the 500 hPa ridge axis shifts east to a position extending
from the Central Gulf Coast to Hudson Bay by late Friday night.
This will correspond to a gradual southeastward subsidence of the
surface high to near the Florida-Georgia border by 6Z Saturday.
Meanwhile, the trough along the Pacific Coast will have closed off
and will approach the California coast while another trough digs
into the Northern Plains from Western Canada. Model spread
increases significantly heading into the weekend and early next
week. The northern stream trough will support a low passing from
northern Manitoba early Saturday to the vicinity of Labrador and
Newfoundland by next Tuesday. The system`s warm front lifts
across eastern Kentucky on Friday into Saturday, with the
subsequent cold front settling across our area on Sunday and
stalling out, leaving a lingering baroclinic zone. The southern
stream closed low works east with time, likely becoming an open
wave again, fostering a new surface low riding along the
baroclinic zone early next week. Moisture with the warm front will
be limited, keeping PoPs low with its passage Friday into Saturday.
The amount of moisture return ahead of the trailing cold front is
uncertain. Better moisture return is likely ahead of the wave of
low pressure next week, but the details, timing, amounts, etc.
remain highly uncertain.

In sensible weather terms, look for a gradual warming trend
through at least Saturday, perhaps extending into Sunday as well.
Daily highs will warm from the mid to upper 50s on Thursday to the
mid-60s to near 70 by Saturday. Values drop off somewhat early
next week. Nighttime lows will follow a similar trend, starting in
the 30s Thursday night and moderating in the 50s by Saturday
night before cooling off early next week. Most of the period
should be dry; there are low rain chances on Friday or Friday
night and broad-brush chances again Saturday night through
Tuesday, as system timing remains rather obscure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

VFR conditions will hold through the period. Low level wind shear
will be a concern for air traffic tonight into early Wednesday, on
account of west southwest winds a little off the surface
increasing to between 45 and 55 kts, for a time. Surface winds
will generally be less than 10 kts through the night and pick up
again from the west to southwest at 10 kts or so with higher
gusts to near 20 kts during Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF