084
FXUS63 KJKL 200301
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1101 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.

- A wavering frontal boundary may affect the area later next
  week, bringing more possibilities of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

Cold front is sinking southeast and approaching the I-64 corridor
this evening. Still looking to be dry as it drifts across the
Coalfields overnight. No substantive changes were needed in the
forecast through sunrise, though did adjust hourly T/Td forecast
values to better align with observations.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

An outflow boundary generated convection passing well to the
north and east has dropped into northern Fleming County this
evening with little fanfare. The trailing cold front is slated to
arrive in that same area by midnight and sag slowly southeastward
through eastern Kentucky during the remainder of the overnight. A
cap is likely to keep a lid on any convection, thus expect mainly
some clouds and a shift in the winds from the west or southwest to
more of a northerly direction as the front passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

A cold front is situated just northwest of KY, from southern IL to
central OH. The front is strung out nearly parallel to the upper
level flow and is moving slowly. However, it will get some slight
help in moving southeast due to an upper level trough crossing the
Great Lakes and southeast Canada and making the flow aloft over
the Ohio Valley slightly more zonal tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the front near the IN/KY
border this afternoon in a corridor of dew points elevated to the
lower to mid 60s. This creates a sharp moisture gradient, with
dew points only around 40 in southeast KY. These storms will move
across northern KY, and they can`t be ruled out from making it
into the far northern portion of the JKL forecast area this
evening, and 20% POP is being carried there. The front will drop
into our area tonight, but cooling temps and poorer (albeit
improving) moisture further south should not allow precip to
progress very far into our area.

The front should stall near the KY/TN border early Sunday and then
begin to head back north through our area as a warm front in
response to flow around low pressure tracking northeast across the
Midwest. It looks like it will move through without fanfare, with
a lack of significant support for precip. This low will be
supported by an upper level low (currently over the southwest
CONUS) moving northeastward and merging with another upper low
over the upper Midwest on Sunday night. The surface low will
propel a cold front eastward into western or central KY by 12Z
Monday morning. Precip with the cold front is likely to hold off
in our area until the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

The cold front referenced in the short term discussion will move
east and southeast through our area on Monday afternoon and
evening. There should be sufficient moisture plus support from
upper level low pressure crossing the upper Midwest to bring
showers and thunderstorms to our area ahead of the front, but
heavy rainfall is not expected. There has been some uncertainty in
models in recent days as to how quickly this front clears to our
south, but it`s now looking like most if not all of the area will
be back to dry weather by Tuesday, and then lasting through
Wednesday.

Another cold front moving southeast across the middle of the CONUS
will bring a return of warm air advection as it approaches late
in the week. With this the prior frontal boundary which passed
through our area will head back north as a warm front. Models
still indicate uncertainty in timing and how this unfolds, so
forecast confidence further fades with time. At this point, the
greatest consensus for precip looks to be on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
only exception is the possibility of localized MVFR conditions
in northerly upslope flow late in the night as a cold front sags
southeastward across eastern Kentucky. The greatest opportunity
for any sub-VFR ceilings will generally be north of the Hal Rogers
Pkwy./ KY-80 corridor. Any low ceilings will improve back to VFR
during the day on Sunday as the boundary lifts back north as a
warm front.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL