428
FXUS63 KJKL 161405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1005 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will build over the weekend and last
  through early next week.

- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
  arrives for the middle of next week, which will also knock down
  temperatures a bit.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025

No major changes were made to the forecast, updated T/Td/Wind and
Wind gust grids with the latest observations, and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 605 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025

So far, very little radiation fog has been noted on the surface
obs -- certainly much less than 24 hrs. ago. The 08Z HRRR shows no
more than a couple of pinhead showers developing across the JKL
CWA during the afternoon. No changes to the forecast are required
at this time. It`s just going to mostly sunny and hot this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025

Short-term grids have been published. Surface high pressure
continues to influence the weather across eastern Kentucky, so we
can expect temperatures to gradually increase during the next few
days. Rain and storm chances today are minimal (<10%). Of course,
one can never fully rule out an isolated cell or two in this type
of air mass. The NBM shows at least modest amounts of instability
today, and even more tomorrow. Hence, we`re including isolated
PoPs for Sunday (15-24%) across the bulk of the forecast area.
Max temps today are likely to reach the low 90s most areas,
excepting the higher elevations near the KY/VA border. And
tomorrow`s max temps will be similar to today`s. Maximum heat
index values are likely to top out in the mid to upper 90s today
and Sunday. A few spots may touch 100F, but we`ll definitely
remain below heat advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft will strengthen by Monday,
which will largely help to suppress meaningful convective
development. There may be some isolated cells that develop on
Tuesday, but we won`t experience appreciable rain and storm
chances until Wednesday, when an inverted trough looks to develop
across eastern Kentucky, and an upper low develops to our west.
The surface boundary will shift to our east by Thursday, but
we`ll also find ourselves under a northwest flow aloft with
perhaps a weak shortwave passing through later in the week -- at
least enough to keep isolated to widely scattered convection in
the forecast on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and heat index
values will start to come down on Wednesday, so this hot stretch
of days will come to an end just as our rain chances get going
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025

We begin the day with VFR observations, except at LOZ, which is
currently OVC002. This shouldn`t go beyond 13Z. We do re-introduce
some light radiation fog at a couple of TAF sites during the
overnight period, but otherwise the 12Z TAFs are VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE