721
FXUS63 KJKL 192013
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
413 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of valley fog are expected tonight into Sunday
  morning, primarily along mainstem rivers and larger tributaries.

- A warming trend will carry through early mid-week, along with
  dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 413 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024

A ridge of high pressure remains resilient over eastern Kentucky,
leading to present conditions persisting through the weekend. Mostly
sunny skies will continue under light and variable winds. Highs in
the lower 70s can be expected this afternoon, with clear skies and
lows in the mid to upper 30s for valleys, and mid to upper 40s along
ridges at night. Localized pockets of dense valley fog are expected
to develop this evening lingering through the early morning hours of
Sunday. Tomorrow could be considered a carbon copy day in regard to
weather, with sunny skies under light and variable winds and
afternoon highs in the low 70s. Lows Sunday night are forecasted
to range from the mid to upper 30s for valleys and mid to upper
40s for ridges under clear skies, with areas of valley fog
developing overnight lingering into Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024

The 19/12z model suite analysis beginning Monday morning showed a
500H ridge still in place over the Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley. Its
attendant ~1028 mb surface high pressure was parked over the Central
Appalachians. A positively-tilted trough extends from Nunavut
southwest to off the Coast of British Columbia and into the North
Pacific. As that trough negatively pivots, it is capturing the
remnants of a deep closed low that is currently impacting the
Desert Southwest.

That former closed low becomes an open wave and rapidly weakens as
it rides northeast to over the Mississippi Valley and into the Great
Lakes. In the process, the trough squashes the upper level ridge,
sending a weakening surface high retreating toward the Gulf of
Mexico. The more substantial upper-level trough over northwest
Canada continues to pivot southeast and shoves a moisture-starved
cold front through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Most of the models suggest that this frontal passage will be
dry. Surface high pressure follows closely behind the front on
Thursday. Forecaster confidence decreases thereafter as guidance
offers differing solutions as to the arrival of the next upper level
trough any related surface cold front. In general though, a second
cold frontal passage, probably dry, can be expected between Friday
and Sunday.

In sensible terms, look for fair weather to prevail through the long-
term. Valley fog is expected in the typically prone locations along
the mainstem rivers and near lakes. Daily high temperatures moderate
into the mid to upper 70s through Wednesday, before dropping back
into the 60s behind the first cold front on Thursday and remaining
closer to normal through the remainder of the weekend. Meanwhile,
nighttime lows moderate from the upper 30s to upper 40s on Monday
night up to the mid 40s and lower 50s on Tuesday night before
dropping back into the 30s and 40s behind the cold front. Rain
chances with the cold front late Wednesday/Wednesday night remained
too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light and
variable winds. Localized valley fog will develop overnight and
may be dense for breif periods of time. This will lead to
localized VLIFR conditions however these low visibility conditions
are currently not expected to affect any TAF terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK