248
FXUS63 KJKL 221201
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
701 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and rain tapers off from northwest to southeast this
  morning.

- Another round of rain and mountain snow will move across parts
  of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, lingering longest over the
  Pine Mountain and Black Mountain areas.

- Another weather system will bring rain late Monday into early
  Tuesday.

- Another system is expected near or around the Thanksgiving
  holiday period which may bring more significant rainfall to the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Snow continues to taper off as the best dynamic forcing aloft
quickly exits southeast over the next few hours. Have allowed the
Winter Weather Advisory for all but the Virginia border counties
of Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties to expire, but even here the
threat for accumulating snow is limited to the highest elevations.
Other changes were minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

An extremely energetic upper trough residing over the southern
Appalachians will depart eastern Kentucky to the east this morning,
with a weaker and much less amplified disturbance diving south on
the backside of a deep upper low moving slowly east to the Mid-
Atlantic coastline this afternoon into this evening. By late
tonight, the mid-level jet stream shifts to the north and east of
eastern Kentucky, which will allow for rising low-level
thicknesses and thus an overall rising temperature regime through
Saturday and beyond. Northwesterly surface flow becoming more
southwesterly Saturday will also help to usher warmer air into
eastern Kentucky.

As for sensible weather, snow will taper off through the early
morning hours from northwest to southeast, with precipitation
possibly ending as rain as warmer temperatures and dew points
continue to move in from the west as the precipitation is ending.
The HREF suggests partial clearing later this morning into early
afternoon, especially in the southwest, before the next shortwave
brings a rapid increase in rain and high-elevation snow from the
north late this afternoon into the evening, with precipitation
lingering longest over the northwestern slopes of the far eastern
counties along the Virginia border, and possibly lingering into
Saturday before completely ending.

Temperatures will be on an upward swing through the period, with
lower 40s for highs today trending to upper 40s to lower 50s
Saturday, with warmer conditions Saturday afternoon in the southwest
where clouds will begin to dissipate as upslope northwesterly flow
trends more southwesterly through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

By 12Z Sunday, a upper level low over Quebec temporarily stalls out,
while a ridge of high pressure occupies much of the East Coast,
Central Plains, including the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest, and Intermountain west stay active
with an offshore low off the WA/OR cost, as well as a few embedded
shortwaves east, over the Saskatchewan area.

As to how this plays out for eastern Kentucky, look for patchy areas
of fog early Sunday, otherwise dry weather under light southerly
winds. Highs are forecasted in the upper 50s, with a few spots
seeing 60. Lows are forecasted to dip into the upper 30s in the
valleys, and low to mid 40s along ridges. Late Sunday night a
shortwave out of the Intermountain West, will phase with the upper
level low from Saskatchewan as they both progress eastward. This
will likely arrive in the form of showers from a cold front Monday
afternoon, and continue through the morning Tuesday. Highs Monday
are forecasted in the low to mid 60s, with southerly winds becoming
westerly heading into Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper
30s to low 40s.  Tuesday, highs are expected to be cooler, in the
upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dropping into the upper 20s to low
30s.

As this system moves through the state late Monday and Tuesday,
the offshore low, out west, deepens and dips south off the
California coast. An atmospheric river will progress onshore
bringing rain to the Desert Southwest Tuesday. Model trends
suggest this trough picks up additional moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico as it approaches Kentucky Wednesday. Models are still
getting a handle on timing and placement, but there are indicators
it could be a decent rainmaker from Wednesday through Friday.
Highs will generally be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Snow will continue to quickly taper off over the next few hours.
However, MVFR/IFR cigs will remain at most if not all TAF sites.
There may be some brief and temporary improvements to high-MVFR or
low-VFR cigs early this afternoon, but another system will bring
low-MVFR or IFR conditions to most if not all TAF sites late this
afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period. North to
northwest winds will become more northwesterly through 12z with
wind speeds generally 10 kts or less. West winds should return
between 12Z and 16Z and then increase thereafter to 10 kts if not
more in some cases, with gusts to near 20KT for this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ088-
118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC