698
FXUS63 KJKL 201131
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
731 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through
  Sunday, with the greatest probability associated with cold
  fronts forecast to move through on Wednesday and during the
  weekend.

- A cold front moving through Wednesday will bring a modest drop
  in temperatures, followed by a much more noticeable cool-down
  behind another cold front passing during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

The latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC for day 1
places roughly the southeastern 2/3rds of the JKL CWA under a
marginal risk, then nothing for days 2-5. It is possible that
heavy rainfall will occur with a few of the cells that develop
later today, but overall impacts will be very low. The highest
QPF is focused over the higher elevations near the KY/VA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

A cold front & accompanying upper trough will swing across
eastern Kentucky during the next several hours, bringing increased
rain chances, increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures to
the region. Given the timing of the front, the best rain and storm
coverage will be across southern portions of the JKL CWA during
the afternoon peak-heating hours. Precipitation efficiency is
remarkably low with this weather system; despite the abnormally
high precipitable water values we`re seeing ahead of the surface
boundary, QPF values the next 24 hrs. (06Z to 06Z) are
disappointing -- less than 1/4" most areas. QPFs near the KY/VA
border are somewhat more robust owing to the added advantage of
orographic lift. But at least afternoon max temps today will top
out in the 80s area-wide, and even a little cooler most areas
tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

Expect lower rain chances late in the week as a surface boundary
re-develops over eastern Kentucky. Temperatures the remainder of
the week and this weekend will stay reasonably close to
climatological normals. Rain and storm chances will increase on
Saturday as the upper flow strengthens and a shortwave develops
over the area that will help push the aforementioned surface
boundary through eastern Kentucky as a cold front. This second
fropa will bring a significant air mass change, with rain chances
dropping off after Sunday as drier air fills in behind the front.
The temperature contrast will also be considerable, with
temperatures throughout most of next week expected to drop well
below climatological normals in what will be our first bonafide
taste of autumn.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025

A surface boundary is now working it`s way southward across
eastern Kentucky, and already we`re seeing some MVFR ceilings
behind the front. PoPs today increase from north to south, as it
will take some surface heating to get the convection going. We`ll
handle the rain chances for now with PROB30 groups for -SHRA,
with the exception of SJS, which has the best chance of -TSRA.
Overnight, look for widespread radiation fog and low stratus.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE