475
FXUS63 KJKL 210000 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of cold fronts will bring a possibility of showers and
  thunderstorms to the area at times through Saturday.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive to start the
  new week, with mainly dry weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak cold front settling into eastern
Kentucky this evening with just enough juice to cause a few
showers to show up on the radar scope - threatening to kick off
some occasional thunder. This boundary is apparently just north
of the office and will keep a small threat for rain in the
forecast along and south of it heading into the late evening.
Otherwise, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are running in
the mid and upper 70s north and in the lower 80s for the south.
Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are in the still sticky
range of the mid to upper 60s north and the uncomfortable low to
mid 70s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as tweaking
the PoPs through the night per the radar and most current
solutions from the CAMs. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs
and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

A cold front beneath a broad eastern CONUS trough is trying to
make its way southeast through the area this afternoon but is
losing momentum and struggling. It will remain in the vicinity in
a poorly defined form at least into Friday. Clouds lingering into
the day today inhibited destabilization and largely prevented
shower/thunderstorm development, but a few small showers have
popped up over our northern counties late this afternoon.
Showers/thunderstorms will continue to be possible at times, with
mesoscale models suggesting an increase in potential during the
night, mainly in our southern counties, and again on Friday into
Friday evening after destabilization occurs, mainly in our
southern and southeastern counties as very weak waves ripple
through the flow aloft. With features being so weak, there is not
a lot of confidence in details of the forecast. A relative lull is
seen for Friday night before a stronger cold front targets the
area early in the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

At the onset of the extended period, the upper air pattern
continues to feature a prominent upper-level ridge centered over
the Intermountain West and Four Corners Region. Further east, a
large, neutrally oriented longwave trough is forecast to cover
portions of the Central and Eastern US. An embedded shortwave
within the longwave trough is modeled to dig out of northwestern
Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the weekend.

A cold front will cross into eastern Kentucky, likely around or
after 00Z Sunday (8 PM EDT Saturday). Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible ahead of and along this cold
front; PoPs reflect this through the afternoon into the early
evening. Model soundings suggest MLCAPE ranging between 900-1200
J/kg at the time of the frontal passage, along with dew points in
the upper 60s, and elevated DCAPE around 800-870 J/kg due to dry
air in the mid-levels. With 0-6km effective bulk shear around 25
kts, storms could become better organized with potential for
gusty and erratic winds. The SPC has placed portions of the area
in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) which covers nearly all of
eastern Kentucky north and east of a Somerset-to-London line,
including the I-64, KY-15, and US-23 corridors to the WV/VA
borders. Some models vary on the positioning of the trough, but
general thinking is storms should taper off across counties
bordering West Virginia in the late evening.

High pressure briefly builds across eastern Kentucky early next
week, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Dew points lowering
into the upper 50s and lower 60s will be a welcome relief from
recent conditions. Dry weather remains Sunday through early Monday.
Model discrepancies are resulting in low, isolated PoPs for Monday
and Tuesday afternoon. This stems from the GFS being more
progressive with a shortwave tracking out of the Central Plains
into the Tennessee Valley, bringing low-end rain chances to
portions of the forecast area. On the other hand, the ECMWF takes
the shortwave out of the Central Plains and directs it deeper into
the Southeast, leaving the area free and clear of active weather.
The NBM has resolved this by placing 15 percent PoPs across the
area to account for the possibility of the GFS solution.

Beyond Tuesday, multiple shortwaves embedded in the upper-level
flow look to bring rounds of shower and storm chances to the
area Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

Dry weather and VFR conditions were still present at the TAF
terminals for this 00Z issuance. There is a still a small
potential for a thunderstorm or two in the late evening and
overnight into early Friday, mainly near/south of the Cumberland
Pkwy/Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY Hwy 80 corridor. This could bring
isolated IFR or worse conditions. Fog is also expected in many
locations (especially valleys) overnight and early Friday, with
IFR or worse conditions possible even at the more elevated TAF
sites. Improvement to VFR can be expected area-wide by late
morning on Friday. Meanwhile, away from any storms, winds will be
light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF