635
FXUS63 KJKL 181011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
511 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm front will usher in a milder and more humid air mass into
  the region later today, and this mild and more moist airmass
  should linger through the week.

- Multiple weather systems should bring rain or showers at times
  beginning today and extending into Saturday.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms across
  western sections of eastern KY from late this afternoon into
  this evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats
  should a severe storm occur.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 510 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs accounting for
latest radar imagery and surface observations. Hourly temperatures
were also updated. Sub-freezing temperatures in the sheltered
valleys appear to be rising to or just above freezing as light
rain moves over the area. Will therefore continue to monitor
closely but withhold issuing any kind of Special Weather Statement
or other statement for potential isolated trace amounts of
freezing rain over the next few hours in our northeastern counties.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A series of warm fronts, successively lowering to the surface with
time, will cross the region this morning through this afternoon at
the head of a veering low-level jet with height ahead of a well-
defined mid-level disturbance crossing the region this evening and
overnight tonight. The first wave of generally trace amounts of
rain are moving across the region during the pre-dawn hours this
morning, with additional more robust rounds of rain and embedded
elevated thunderstorms as the atmosphere moistens from aloft down
to the surface later today. As a warm front moves through the area
and as a surface low approaches late this afternoon into this
evening, a few surface-based storms may develop or move into
western parts of the area. If sufficient CAPE in the area of 500
to 700 J/kg can be realized, then shear is more than sufficient to
support an isolated strong to severe storm, with marginally large
hail and strong gusty winds the primary threats.

Areas that remain mainly north of the warm front and which see
rounds of rain through the day are likely to remain cool, and some
areas may struggle to reach the lower 50s through this afternoon,
while toward the Lake Cumberland region temperatures are likely to
rise well into the 60s within the warm sector. Have thus lowered
temperatures across the north and far northeastern parts of the
forecast area a few degrees for today and tonight from the NBM
forecast, but overall temperatures will rise or remain nearly
steady for many areas this evening before dipping toward dawn
Wednesday with the warm front moving south as a weak cold front
across much of eastern Kentucky.

Mid-level heights rise Wednesday from the west with the surface
boundary becoming a stationary front situated across the area.
Thus, light rain chances will continue under a continued active
jet stream. Temperatures will remain cooler to the north and
northeast with upper 50s to lower 60s, while mid to upper 60s are
expected across southern parts of the area where warm advection
will remain strongest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A stationary front remains in the vicinity under active zonal flow
through the remainder of the week. A large complex upper low over
the Southwest CONUS and northwestern Mexico will eject a
southern-stream disturbance northeast through the Mississippi and
Ohio River Valleys Thursday through Friday while a northern
stream upper low/trough moves east across the Great Lakes. This
looks to bring active unsettled weather with periods of
rain/showers and some thunderstorms to the region from Thursday
and lasting into Saturday, ending with the passage of an upper
disturbance and likely weak cold front later Saturday. Cooler and
drier air then builds into the region for the remainder of the
weekend into Monday of next week as northern stream west-
northwesterly mid-level flow with surface high pressure prevails.

Temperatures will become increasingly milder with the
southwesterly mid-level flow across the region for the second half
of this week, with temperatures dipping back closer to normal
behind the cold frontal passage this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with light and variable
winds; however, a warm front is forecast to lift northward through
the area bringing increased chances of showers and lowered CIGS.
Chances for showers will begin to increase around 15Z mainly at
KSYM and closer to 17Z for the remaining sites with this
potential represented by a PROB30. The best chances will be after
20Z where rain with VCTS is in the prevailing group. This will
persist through the end of the TAF window minus KSYM which will
experience decreasing shower potential. CIGS are forecast to
remain VFR but can`t rule out reductions into MVFR as the warm
front and cold fronts move through the area. Lastly, winds will be
mostly light and variable but sustained winds around 7 to 10
knots will exist post-warm frontal passage. Also, winds with
thunderstorms can be gusty and erratic.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST