144
FXUS63 KJKL 040925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is expected to develop again tonight, mainly in the river
  valleys.

- Mostly dry and seasonably mild weather is expected through
  Thursday, with Wednesday looking warm and breezy.

- Our next chance for rain arrives Friday. This system brings
  gusty winds, possibly over 30 mph, and a chance of
  thunderstorms.

- Confidence is growing that the area will experience much colder
  temperatures early next week, but the precipitation forecast
  remains very uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025

A cool and quiet early November morning is unfolding across the
eastern Kentucky Coalfields. Temperatures range from the low 30s
in the coldest valleys to the lower 40s on ridges. Tentacles of
fog extend through the mainstem river valleys. This is due to an
approximately 1028 mb surface high pressure system over the Middle
Tennessee Valley, displaced east under a broad 500 hPa ridge over
the Central US. The next trough is coming ashore the Pacific Northwest.

Through the short term, high pressure will shift east to off the
Atlantic Seaboard while upper-level ridging subsides ahead of
troughing riding over the northern Rockies and then diving
southeast through the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast US. Ahead of that trough, low pressure will develop in
the lee of the Rockies and pass through the northern CONUS to over
New England by Wednesday evening. Ahead of this system, a warm
front will lift across the Lower Ohio Valley this evening and will
be followed by the trailing cold front dropping south of the Ohio
River by Wednesday evening. The return flow in the warm sector
will remain quite dry, keeping the threat of rain at bay, but it
will still become quite mild as 850 mb temperatures rebound to
near 10C on Wednesday afternoon. GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum
transfer of 25 to 30 kts in the afternoon supports breezy
conditions.

In sensible weather terms, look for any fog and frost this
morning to fade under mostly to partly sunny skies. It will be
seasonably mild with high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
Tonight will be mostly clear with lows generally in the 40s.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, fair weather continues with plenty of
sunshine and temperatures peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Southwesterly winds will become gusty, reaching 25 to 35 mph at
times. Low and mid-level clouds will increase from the northwest
late.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 549 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The forecast guidance suite continues to resolve a progressive
weather pattern over the Commonwealth, with a series of shortwave
disturbances navigating through the quasi-zonal flow aloft. The
first of these disturbances is forecast to approach the Greater Ohio
River Valley on Wednesday night, albeit with little impact to the
sensible weather here in Kentucky. Dry weather will continue into
Thursday before a second, stronger disturbance approaches on Friday
and yields a widespread rain chances. The passage of Friday`s cold
front will mark the beginning of a pattern change, and deeper
longwave troughing looks to dig into the region this weekend.
Confidence is growing that this new pattern could result in the
coldest temperatures of the season thus far, and depending on the
timing of a few embedded features, the first flakes of the season
could fly. Confidence in wintery precipitation is low at this
temporal range, but temperatures are forecast to be much colder at
the end of the long term forecast period than they are at the
beginning.

In fact, Wednesday`s high temperatures are poised to warm up to well-
above average values amidst an efficient warm air-advection regime.
When the period opens on Wednesday morning, the area will be
positioned between a clipper-type low over the Great Lakes and a
surface high over the Carolinas. These synoptics will yield
southwesterly surface flow over the region, and the tightening
pressure gradient could yield gusts up to 25 mph. Under mostly clear
skies, efficient diurnal warming/mixing favors highs in the upper
60s and lower 70s. MOS guidance remains very aggressive with
Wednesday`s high temperatures in some of the deepest valleys in
Eastern KY, and a few thermometer readings in the mid 70s cannot be
ruled out. Nevertheless, this warmth will be short lived, as the
clipper system`s trailing cold front will get dragged through the
region overnight. That boundary continues to look moisture-starved,
but temperatures look to be slightly cooler on Thursday, with AM
lows in the 40s and PM highs back in the 60s. A quick-moving surface
high will pass through the region in this time frame, yielding one
last day of pleasant dry weather. Shaded valley locales will cool
off quickly after sunset on Thursday night, but surface winds will
veer towards the south and strengthen as the high shifts east.

By Friday morning, the commonwealth will once again be within a
regime of gusty southwesterly return flow. However, a relatively
stronger surface low in the Great Lakes and a relatively deeper
parent trough aloft means that that Friday`s winds will be both
stronger and vertically stacked. Collectively, this favors much more
efficient moisture return, and cloud coverage is forecast to
accordingly increase on Friday morning. Forecast guidance shows
PWATs climbing to near 1 inch on Friday afternoon out ahead of the
system`s cold front. These values are much higher than
climatological norms for early November, giving credence to the
idea that a widespread wetting rain will occur on Friday. The LREF
Grand Ensemble depicts a 75-85% chance of at least 0.25 inches of
rain to fall across Eastern Kentucky on Friday and Friday night.
Confidence in convection with Friday`s system is much lower,
although there remains a slight chance of thunderstorms immediately
ahead of the frontal boundary along and west of the I-75 corridor.
The aforementioned AM cloud coverage could mitigate the amount of
diurnal warming on Friday, but efficient WAA still still allow
highs to climb into the upper 60s/near 70. If pockets of clearing
emerge on Friday afternoon and some marginal instability is
realized, some of Friday`s activity could take advantage of frontal
forcing and seasonably strong (but unidirectional) bulk shear to
produce convectively-enhanced strong wind gusts. The LREF joint
probabilities for favorable convective parameter spacing remain less
than 25% this afternoon, but a high-shear/low-CAPE type of event
cannot be completely ruled out. Thus, the greatest impacts from
Friday`s system will likely come from its widespread rainfall and
the post-frontal reduction in temperatures.

Saturday`s cooler temperatures (MaxTs near 60 and MinTs in the lower
half of the 40s) will mark the beginning of a broader pattern shift.
After one last day of quasi-zonal flow aloft, deeper longwave
troughing will dig deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys at
the end of the forecast period. As it does so, the pattern will
remain active, with multiple shortwave disturbances approaching the
area from the northwest through early next week. There remains
significant model spread in the timing and magnitude of these
embedded features, but the mean troughing aloft and the post-cold
frontal regime at the surface will collectively advect a much cooler
continental polar airmass into the region. Guidance consistently
resolves mid-level height falls to below 550 dm by Sunday evening,
with 850mb temperatures dropping below freezing around the same
time. If a secondary shortwave feature is able to take advantage of
these colder temperatures, the first snowflakes of the season could
mix in with a cold rain on Sunday evening. However, the antecedent
warmth means that winter weather impacts are highly unlikely, and
confidence in winter precipitation remains low at this extended
temporal range. Confidence is much higher that temperatures will
drop to the coldest values thus far this season early next week,
with widespread subfreezing lows forecast on Monday morning.
Guidance continues to drop 850mb temperatures through the end of the
forecast period, and it is plausible for the entirety of the
forecast area (even ridgetops) to experience lows in the 20s and
highs in the 30s by next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025

Though VFR was noted at the forecast terminals at TAF issuance,
fog is expanding through the river valleys early this morning and
is expected to eventually impact multiple TAF sites. The most
likely TAF sites to experience reductions are SME, SJS, and LOZ,
though a few passing wisps of fog cannot be entirely ruled out at
JKL or SYM around sunrise. After the fog dissipates ~12Z to
14Z, VFR conditions will return area-wide. There will be periods
of passing high clouds at times as well. Winds remain light and
variable early this morning, but adopt a more southerly
orientation around 5 kts or less by this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON