178
FXUS63 KJKL 031917
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
317 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon
  into this evening, especially along and south of the I-64
  corridor.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will affect
  eastern Kentucky through Sunday - especially northwest parts of
  the forecast area where between 3 and 7 inches of rain is
  possible.

- Temperatures will be warmer than normal through Saturday before
  well below normal temperatures follow for the new work week.

- A hard freeze appears increasingly likely for most of eastern
  Kentucky next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025

Cold front appears to have made it just to the western edge/just
to the west of our CWA. Bulk of precipitation this afternoon
continues to remain along/just to the south/east of this boundary.
Continued rounds of showers and storms are possible this afternoon
and evening as the frontal boundary continues to sag south into
the area, and eventually stalls somewhere just south of the Ohio
River later this evening/tonight. The threat of severe continues
this afternoon/evening, with the possibility for strong damaging
wind gusts, and even isolated tornadoes, with the strong deep
layer shear and instability remaining in place, with breaks in
cloud cover helping to aid in instability. SPC continues to
highlight the bulk of the CWA in a slight risk for today. In
addition, strong southerly flow will continue to pump anomalously
high PW content air into the CWA, and the threat for flooding
continues, with heavy downpours, and a quick inch or two of qpf
possible at times in stronger storms.

Frontal boundary should generally remain stalled across the area
through early Friday, but should start to lift back north of the
area later in the day/evening as upper trough/low across the
southwest U.S. deepens. Heavy showers and storms are possible
early Friday, particularly in vicinity of the front, as waves move
along it, enhancing precipitation at times. At this point it
appears as though the axis of heaviest rain will occur across
northern zones/vicinity of Ohio River, and flooding concerns are
becoming increasingly likely in those areas. Frontal boundary
will also mark quite a temperature gradient across the CWA, with
areas north of the front much cooler, than areas south on Friday.
Southern zones could see high temperatures Friday in the lower to
mid 80s, with lower to mid 70s expected across the north.

As the front lifts back north in the evening Friday, the bulk of
precipitation should lift northward with it. However, showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday, with the bulk
of severe activity generally remaining across the north, closer to
the front. However, severe cannot be completely ruled out anywhere
during this period, and an isolated strong storm is possible with
plenty of instability and 40 to 50 kts of shear in place.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025

Frontal boundary should continue to remain just north and west of
the area at the start of the period. Waves of low pressure riding
along the front will continue to enhance showers and storms, but
the bulk of the precipitation should remain out of our area for
much of the day. However, in the moist unstable airmass, expect
more convective activity, particularly during heating hours
south/east of the front. SPC has already placed much of the CWA in
a slight risk for severe on Saturday, with plenty of shear and
instability continuing to remain in place.

Front will finally sweep across the area in the Saturday
night/evening through Sunday time frame as the upper low to the
west opens into a wave, and finally starts to kick off to the
east. Plenty of low level moisture will linger across the area on
Monday behind the departing system, making for a cool day, with
high temperatures generally only in the 50s. More showers are
expected Monday evening into Tuesday, as an upper shortwave trough
moves through the area. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool
air into the CWA, with low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings bottoming out in the 20s to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU APR 3 2025

Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move northeast
across eastern KY this afternoon, creating brief MVFR/IFR
conditions, generally in reduced visibilities. Outside of
precipitation, conditions have generally remained VFR. General
clearing is starting to occur across the far south, and is
expected to continue through the evening as precipitation shield
slowly lifts north closer to the Ohio River vicinity.

Overnight, showers and thunderstorms with MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected, mainly along the Ohio River, with many TAF sites across
the south expected to remain dry. However, areas of MVFR/IFR
in low ceilings and fog is anticipated. Although most of the
precipitation should remain generally north near the OH River, a
stray storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere overnight.

Lastly, LLWS is expected overnight with stronger winds aloft. Have
coded in the TAFs at several locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-112-114.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUEST
LONG TERM...GUEST
AVIATION...GUEST