551
FXUS63 KJKL 081436
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1036 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will turn cooler today as a brisk northerly breeze brings in
  drier air.

- Seasonably cool and dry conditions are expected to continue from
  this afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

Lingering light showers, drizzle, and fog are retreating southeast
late this morning and becoming increasingly confined to the high
terrain near the VA/KY and TN/KY border as dry cool air arrives on
a north northeast breeze. The back edge of the thicker cloud deck
is in the vicinity of the Mountain Parkway and should continue to
sink southeast to near Middlesboro by 3 to 5 PM. As skies clear,
anticipate fair weather cu to bubble up in the cold air advection
regime.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also touch up the pops through midday per radar and CAMs
guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a distinct cold front dropping steadily
southeast through eastern Kentucky. This is pushing one last round
of showers, with even a few in cloud lightning pulses noted west
of Middlesboro, through the JKL CWA during these pre-dawn hours.
The front is also bringing a change in wind direction as it passes
with north northwest winds of around 10 mph gusting to 15 mph in
its wake - helping to limit the fog left behind the showers. Under
plenty of very low clouds, temperatures range from the upper 50s
northwest to the mid 60s in the southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints
vary from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s in the southeast.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in terrific
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the core of the trough, centered northeast of the
Great Lakes, working through the Ohio Valley early this morning.
This is taking its associated mid-level energy along with it. The
lowest 5h heights will be over eastern Kentucky this morning with
rising heights by afternoon in the wake of the passing trough and
ridging building over Texas. Some energy will be caught between
these features but likely stay west and south of this part of the
state through Thursday. The model spread is still fairly small
concerning these key features and supported using the NBM as the
starting point of the grids with minimal adjustments needed -
mainly just to include the latest PoP guidance from the CAMs
consensus this morning with some terrain enhancement included in
the hourly temperatures tonight.

Sensible weather features a return to seasonably appropriate
temperatures in the wake of a cold front this morning. Just a few
showers will be possible through mid morning long with some
sprinkles or drizzle from the low clouds. These will clear out
this afternoon from northwest to southeast thanks to the dry (and
cool) air mass being brought in on northerly winds. Mostly clear
skies and diminishing winds tonight will allow for some
radiational cooling and a small ridge to valley temperature split.
Leftover ground moisture will likely allow for fog development in
the valleys - but probably fairly shallow due to the drier air
mass. High pressure to the north on Thursday will make for a cool
and dry day on Thursday with slackening winds as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with some extra drying to the dewpoints and RH Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend, along with a
touch of extra drying for each afternoon. The NBM PoPs being at a
minimum through the extended looks reasonable given the quiet weather
pattern into the middle of the month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period begins Thursday morning with a small yet vigorous
disturbance over the Tennessee Valley within overall northwesterly
flow aloft between a strong ridge over the center of the country and
a deep trough exiting New England. This disturbance digs south to
the Southeast coastline and helps to develop a strong surface low
along the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, another upper low digs
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and combines
with the Southeast low to form a large complex low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Models are then in good overall agreement in
upper ridging building northeastward from the south-central CONUS
into the Ohio Valley to end the period Monday into Monday night.

Models continue to trend lower with Friday morning`s low
temperatures, especially in the most sheltered northeastern valleys,
where some isolated patchy areas of frost cannot be completely be
ruled out as temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Otherwise, cool and
dry conditions are expected to end this week, this weekend, and
early next week, though temperatures will be slowly trending upwards
after bottoming out behind the cold front that moves across the area
tonight. Any precipitation with the coastal low will remain east of
the area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025

A range of conditions were reported at issuance time with some
locations LIFR or lower in post-frontal low stratus while others
were nearer to MVFR. Improvements will gradually spread in from
northwest to southeast leading to VFR conditions arriving between
14 and 19Z from north to south for the TAF sites. Expect the
valley fog to be limited enough tonight with a larger dewpoint
depression keeping the fog out of the terminals. Winds will be
northwest to northeast this morning with speeds up to 10 kts
possible before diminishing with dark becoming light and variable
later tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF