017
FXUS63 KJKL 212003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much quieter weather is expected for the bulk of the next 7
  days.

- Widespread low temperatures of zero to 10 above in sheltered valleys
  and hollows tonight.

- High temperatures return to near normal during the upcoming
  weekend and then above normal for the first half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025

The deep winter cold continues this afternoon. Stubborn stratus has
remained trapped in northwest flow under a low-level inversion and
has plagued most of the area northeast of US-421 this afternoon. A
few locations further southwest have experienced incursions from
this cloud deck as well. Temperatures further south have warmed into
the upper 20s to lower 30s under nearly full sunshine; but,
thermometers have lagged further north under the cloud cover,
generally only reaching the lower and middle 20s. Scattered flurries
have been noted at times under the stratus deck. The latest analysis
shows a modified ~1039 mb arctic high over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. Aloft, an upper level trough is departing through New
England/Atlantic Canada while ridging prevails over the West Coast.
In between, shortwave 500H ridging is noted over the Ozarks just
ahead of a weak upper low over the western Kansas/eastern Colorado.

The shortwave ridge continues to drift east, allowing the surface
high to build across the Commonwealth this evening and then become
more consolidated over the Central Appalachians by sunrise Saturday.
As the low-level flow switches southwesterly, anticipate that the
stratus deck will gradually erode back to the north tonight. The
combination of clearing skies, light winds, dry air mass, and
extensive snow cover will set the stage for a cold night with
widespread lows in the single digits to around 10 above in many of
the sheltered valley and hollow locations. Mid to upper teens are
expected along the thermal belt slopes and ridges. After
coordination with multiple emergency managers, another impact-based
Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for those counties with
lingering impacts from the recent flooding.

Looking ahead to Saturday, the the weak 500H low circulation will
have become an open wave by the time it reaches the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. It will feature little sensible impact other than dimming
the sunshine with some mid and high-level clouds. Temperatures
should finally rebound above freezing area-wide with highs in the
upper 30s north to mid 40s far southeast. Heights rebound behind the
trough Saturday night with surface high pressure becoming re-
established over the Central/Southern Appalachians. This will allow
for another night of notable ridge-valley temperature splits with
lows ranging from the mid 10s in colder valleys to the mid 20s on
thermal belt ridges.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025

Surface high pressure is forecast to remain dominate over the area
for the start of the forecast period. Accompanying the surface high,
warming temperatures are expected from Sunday into Tuesday.
Beginning Monday, an upper-level trough is expected to develop over
southern Canada. This trough and associated Alberta Clipper system
is progged to dive southeast toward the Ohio Valley by early Tuesday
morning. This clipper system is expected to bring 20% to 30% to the
forecast area through the day before exiting the region by late
Tuesday night. However, in this model suite, the GFS and ECMWF model
solutions have begun to diverge as the GFS is much further north
with the trough and the ECMWF is largely in the same position as it
was this time yesterday. As for the forecast, opted to keep the NBM
solution which keeps the 20% to 30% PoP for much of the eastern two
thirds of the CWA. Weak high pressure builds back into the region
for Wednesday but will be short-lived as another system is forecast
to develop off the Rockies and track eastward through the day
Wednesday and be on the doorstep of the CWA by late Wednesday night.
Increasing showers are expected through the overnight Thursday
through Friday before cold FROPA occurs late Thursday night/Friday
morning. As colder air filters into the region, lingering shower
activity will change over to snow before dissipating by Friday
afternoon.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by periods of dry weather
and warming temperatures. A couple systems are expected to impact
the area Tuesday and Thursday but total rainfall with each system
will be less than a third of an inch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025

Conditions were either MVFR or VFR at TAF issuance. Terminals SJS,
JKL, and SYM are under an MVFR stratus deck and, aside from any
brief breaks in the deck, are expected to remain under that
ceiling well into tonight. Further south, largely VFR conditions
are expected at LOZ and SME, though brief incursions of the MVFR
cloud deck are possible this afternoon and evening as indicated in
TEMPO groups. Scattered flurries are noted under the stratus
ceiling. Expect the cloud deck to gradually erode from south to
north overnight with primarily mid to high clouds on Saturday
morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Saturday for KYZ110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON