972
FXUS63 KJKL 140401 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1201 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still a chance for thunderstorms through the night and into the
  day Thursday. Localized excessive rain will be possible.

- Cooler conditions linger into Thursday but above average
  temperatures return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and PoPs from the current radar images and CAMs guidance through
the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure over the area with plenty
of moisture in the air for the convection to work with. This has
resulted in scattered to widespread shower and storm activity with
a tendency to backbuild westward and train over the same areas.
As a result, localized flooding will remain possible through the
rest of the evening for the north, west, and central parts of the
CWA. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s -
away from any storms, but nearer to 70 degrees with the rain.
Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds - outside of storms,
dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 70s. Have updated the
forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids as well as to tweak the PoPs through the night per the
current radar and CAMs guidance. Did drop the southeast flood
watch at 8 pm with the better heavy rain producers winding down in
those watch counties and a lessening threat into the overnight.
These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

A cold front is currently approaching the region from the northwest.
Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms have developed and are
expected to continue through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
have climbed into the mid-80s north of the Mountain Parkway, while
areas south of the Parkway, where consistent rain has fallen, are
seeing temperatures in the upper 70s.

The front will continue to approach, bringing ongoing showers and
storms for the remainder of the day. Forecast soundings ahead of the
front still indicate a potential for heavy rain this afternoon.
Precipitable water amounts remain near 2.00 inches, and tall, skinny
CAPE profiles exist. However, as the afternoon progresses, winds
will shift to the west, minimizing moisture advection and causing
the threat of flash flooding to diminish. In addition to the heavy
rainfall, a minimal severe weather threat exists. The fronts forcing
and forecast SBCAPE values of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg are present, but
the lack of high effective bulk shear values significantly reduces
the potential for severe storms. Temperatures will climb into the
mid-80s. Showers and storms will taper off this evening, leading to
a quiet overnight. Guidance suggests that cloud cover may persist
overnight, limiting fog development. However, if any clearing
occurs, fog will be possible in those areas.

Thursday will bring another day of showers and storms as quasi-zonal
flow becomes established and the cold front stalls out along the
Ohio River. This stalled boundary will be the focus for convection
Thursday afternoon. Fortunately, PW values are lower on Thursday,
but heavy rainfall is still possible. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are still a concern due to Wednesdays rainfall and any
potential rain on Thursday. Similarly, highs will climb into the mid-
80s, and showers and storms will dissipate after sunset. Guidance is
in better agreement for Thursday night, showing clearing clouds and
the development of widespread, and in some places, dense fog.

The period will be highlighted by heavy rain and the potential for
flash flooding. Temperatures will be slightly above average, with
highs in the mid-80s and overnight lows in the low to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

The long-term forecast period brings a shift in the synoptic flow
pattern as quasi-zonal flow breaks down and an upper-level ridge
builds into the region. Concurrently, a surface high-pressure system
will move in, leading to rising temperatures and a reduced threat
for showers and storms starting Friday and continuing through the
weekend. High temperatures will begin to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100 degrees over the weekend.
While shower and thunderstorm chances will still exist, they will be
isolated to scattered in nature. Any showers or storms will
dissipate overnight, and the resulting clearing will allow for the
development of overnight valley fog, with lows falling into the mid
to upper 60s.

Starting Sunday morning, an upper-level trough will track across
southern Canada and the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will drop
southeastward toward the Commonwealth on Sunday and Monday, before
stalling out along the Ohio River as the ridge builds to the south
of the area. This frontal forcing will increase precipitation
chances for Monday and Tuesday.

The main highlights of the long-term forecast are the increasing
heat through the weekend and the continued threat of afternoon
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025

Showers and storms are encroaching the TAF sites this evening
with KLOZ initially impacted at issuance. Look for the potential
for MVFR or lower impacts to continue through most of the evening
for the TAF terminals. Once convection dissipates, low-end VFR
conditions are expected for a time; however, as a front approaches
the area, CIGS will probably fall into MVFR/IFR through the
overnight with some MVFR or lower fog developing late. CIGS and
VIS will then improve after 13Z with terminals becoming VFR into
the early afternoon. Showers and storms could develop in the
afternoon after 16Z but the chance of impacting any TAF site was
deemed too low to include in the FM groups at this time. Winds are
forecast to be mostly light and variable outside of any
convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF