854
FXUS63 KJKL 230538
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1238 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant warming trend will last through mid-week, with
  most places forecast to top 60 degrees on Wednesday.

- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night with
  our next good shot at rain (50-60% probability), followed by a
  modest downturn in temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025

No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as the clouds
continue to slowly clear. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just south of
Kentucky and this is keeping the winds light and variable. The
earlier sunshine, that helped warm temperatures from chilly
morning lows, was impacted by a deck of clouds arriving around 7k
feet AGL. This band has not been well captured by the models and
had to be moved through the forecast grids manually into the late
evening hours. Temperatures are currently varying from the low 30s
north to the lower 40s in the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints
are generally in the upper teens and low 20s. Have updated the
forecast principally to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 235 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025

Above freezing temperatures have finally returned to most of eastern
Kentucky this afternoon! Thermometers are registering values in
the mid 30s in the north to the lower and middle 40s over the
south after being below freezing since last Sunday/Monday for most
locations. The sunshine has been filtered by fairly extensive
mid- level cloud cover at times. The thickest cloud cover at mid-
afternoon is over the Upper Cumberland Basin and is actually
generating some weak returns on radar. While the low-level air
mass is dry, and no precipitation has yet been reported, a few
sprinkles or flurries could be occurring with this activity.
Today`s cloud cover is due to a positively-tilted shortwave trough
current crossing the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys.

This shortwave will continue to propagate eastward late this
afternoon and evening with areas of mid-level cloud cover. While
this system is moisture-starved, cannot entirely rule out a trace
of precipitation over the Upper Cumberland River basin this
afternoon (ie. in the vicinity of places such as Williamsburg,
Middlesboro, and Harlan). As the shortwave pulls away this
evening, heights will generally rise. A relatively thin mid-level
cloud deck is noted in the wake of the shortwave where 850mb CAA
is occurring under 700mb WAA but these clouds not well captured by
the model guidance. In general, anticipate this cloud deck to
shift eastward and further thin/diminish as an weak forcing wanes.
As a result, expect patchy mid-level clouds to wane tonight over
eastern Kentucky while surface high pressure becomes re-
established over the Central/Southern Appalachians and lingers
overhead on Sunday. Another moisture-starved upper level
disturbance crosses eastern Kentucky Sunday evening/night with
another uptick in mid-to-high cloud cover but no precipitation.

In sensible terms, look for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies
through the remaining daylight hours with late afternoon highs in
the 36F to 46F degree range outside of Big Black Mountain. A few
sprinkles or a few flakes are possible through 5 PM EST southeast
of an imaginary line from Whitesburg-to-Corbin-to-Whitley City.
This will give way to a seasonably chilly and partly cloudy night
with lows ranging from the mid 10s in colder valleys to the mid
20s on thermal belt ridges. On Sunday, mostly sunny skies prevail,
sending temperatures soaring into the mid and upper 40s. A few
more clouds return for at least the first half of Sunday night,
before skies trend mostly clear. Expect temperatures to settle
back into the lower 20s valleys to upper 20s ridges.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025

The long-term period will feature a progressive weather pattern with
several relatively weak and moisture-starved systems. Multiple
days of primarily southwesterly flow will continue our warming
trend to well above normal temperatures through Wednesday after
which temperatures get knocked back down closer to normal for late
in the work week. Another quick warmup is anticipated heading
into next weekend.

The 22/12z model suite analysis beginning Monday morning shows
upper-level heights rebounding slightly as surface high pressure
ridging extends from the Western Gulf Coast northeastward to
across the Central Appalachians and beyond to off the coast of
Nova Scotia. The ridging will be short-lived however as another
upper level disturbance drops southeast from western Canada into
the Great Lakes on Monday Night and early Tuesday, dropping a weak
cold front into the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. With very little
available moisture, anticipate little more than an increase in
cloud cover. Max PoPs with this system range from around 15% far
northeast to around 5% near Lake Cumberland. Shortwave ridging
aloft and surface high pressure nudging in from the south bring
placid conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A more
substantial system, a weak clipper low from the Montanan/Albertan
prairies, then dives into the Great Lakes by Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The aforementioned weak cold front will lift
back north as a warm front as this low approaches, allowing the
highest moisture of the period (PWATs surging toward 1 inch) to
briefly return. There will also be some synoptic scale lifting
from the left exit region of a 300 mb jet streak passing through
the Deep South. This system brings the greatest opportunity for
rainfall during the entire forecast period -- 50 to 60 PoP for
most locations -- on Wednesday evening/night. Widespread rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.1 to 0.25 inches are currently
forecast. Reasonable high-end scenarios (90th percentile of the
LREF) are generally around 0.5 inch and ensemble maximum values
are up to ~1.0 inch. This should not be enough rainfall to cause
any notable hydro issues. The system`s trailing cold front works
its way through the area Wednesday night and should be clear of
our CWA by around sunrise Thursday.

Temperatures will drop off noticeably once the front passes as
mean LREF 850mb temperatures fall from 5 to 7C ahead of the
boundary to -1 to -3C in the wake of the boundary on Thursday.
Another quick-moving disturbance originating high in northwest
Canada then dives southeast toward the Great Lakes and sweeps a
reinforcing cold front across eastern Kentucky on Thursday night.
Temperatures behind this front may become marginally cold enough
to support a tad of upslope snow or "snizzle" by Friday morning,
primarily over higher elevations. Any accumulation should be
minimal to nil. Heights start to spring back up by late Friday as
that disturbance departs only to fall once again on Saturday as a
stronger clipper low dives out of northwestern Canada and into
the Great Lakes on Saturday. Milder air surges back into eastern
Kentucky on Saturday but much of the guidance suggests that we
will receive only a glancing nudge from this system in the form of
a dry or mostly dry cold front and only modest drop in
temperatures.

In sensible terms, look for mostly sunny skies and temperatures
rising into the lower and middle 50s on Monday. Cloud cover becomes
a little more widespread Monday night and Tuesday morning with
milder lows in the 30s for most spots. Any stray light showers on
Tuesday morning(more probable northeast) give way to increasing
amounts of sunshine and once again warm temperatures with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most locales. Continued mild
temperatures can be expected under partly cloudy skies on Tuesday
night and Wednesday with lows in the 30s and highs in the low/mid
60s, respectively. The threat for a wetting rain returns late
Wednesday and persists in to early Thursday with temperatures
settling back into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cooler conditions
with periodic rain and higher elevation snow chances follow later
Thursday night and Friday. Daytime maximum temperatures retreat
to the 45 to 55F range while nighttime lows fall to near freezing.
Looking ahead of Saturday, temperatures surge back to above
normal levels in the 50s to around 60 under partial sunshine after
morning lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds less
than 10 kts. Models hint at a few clouds at times, mainly mid-
upper level, but pinning down specifics is elusive.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL