915
FXUS63 KJKL 070347 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1147 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs near to slightly below normal are expected through early
  next week.

- Locally heavy rain and the threat for excessive rainfall remains
  overnight.

- Some strong storms are possible Saturday into Saturday night,
  with the potential for heavy rain and strong to damaging wind
  gusts.

- Shower and storm chances then linger into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Some light showers are moving across the area with a bit deeper
convection over sections of south central KY as well as southern
IL and IN. No lightning activity has been detected over the past
couple of hours in convection over KY. Convective allowing models
continue to have a bit of an uptick in coverage overnight,
including some higher rainfall rates in some runs with some having
a max in rainfall near the Mtn Pkwy corridor or Red River Valley
area of 2 to 3 inches. Meanwhile, a bit more substantial amounts
fell earlier today (Friday) further south and west especially
near the Lake Cumberland Region. WPC has a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall overnight and although the model maxes do not
overlap where the heaviest rain fell during the past 24 hours,
there remains at least some risk for high water or flash flooding
in low lying and poor drainage areas overnight with activity
expected ahead of a cold front trailing from low pressure tracking
into eastern/northeastern KY. That boundary is expected to stall
over the Commonwealth tomorrow morning before returning north as a
warm front. In general, a lull in convection is anticipated
either late tonight or Saturday morning behind the overnight
round, with renewed activity by late afternoon or early Saturday
evening into Saturday night. Some strong to severe storms are
possible with that along with Excessive Rainfall. The HWO and DSS
packets and social media posts were updated earlier in the evening
to account for these trends.



UPDATE Issued at 605 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations
and trends. The earlier activity that move east across the area
ran into a less favorable environment nearer to the VA and WV
borders. The threat for severe thunderstorms has diminished and
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Some better
instability does linger nearer to the TN border in advance of
activity over south central KY nearing the Lake Cumberland
vicinity and there area additional strong storms further north
and west in central KY. With many areas already having experienced
convection any additional convection that moves into eastern KY
should be less robust as we also move deeper into the evening. A
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in southwestern sections
of the area in the Wayne County vicinity over the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025

Strong storms are ongoing across the CWA as we`ve entered peak
daytime heating. The strongest storms have been entering our area
from the west, aided by strong instability across the region. This
somewhat organized line is expected to move roughly WSW across the
CWA, bringing strong to damaging winds with it, particularly our
more western counties. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
those areas until 7pm this evening. Our northern and far eastern
counties are the least likely to see the stronger storms from this
line, as it becomes further disconnected from the better support. A
very brief lull is possible behind this line before another round of
more organized convection later this evening into tonight. The main
threat with any of these storms is damaging winds. There is also a
lot of moisture available for these storms to tap into, with PWATs
approaching 2 inches. So, heavy downpours leading to some localized
nuisance or flash flooding are also possible, especially if an
area sees repeated rounds of activity.

Looking ahead, the overall synoptic pattern will remain fairly
consistent through the short-term. The CWA will be sitting in a
flattened, almost quasi-zonal flow pattern as a broad upper level
trough settles over the region. Multiple small waves are set to move
through the broader flow. One of the more prominent waves to
impact the area is expected to traverse the region late this
evening, with another to cross the area Saturday night. At the
surface, a frontal boundary remains situated to our north and
west, serving as a rough focus for showers and storms as the upper
and mid-level energy moves across the area.

Focusing on sensible impacts, expect a short dip in the shower and
storm chances tomorrow morning after tonight`s round of convection
makes it through. However, as we enter the afternoon and evening
hours, chances for showers and storms return. Similar to today,
expect more scattered, diurnally aided convection in the afternoon,
before a more organized MCV-like cluster moves through into the
night, supported in part by the short wave mentioned above. There`s
still a little bit of uncertainty about how the convection tonight
will impact the atmosphere`s ability to destabilize tomorrow, and
the better dynamics will be further to our south, but there`s
decent confidence in enough instability and shear for the storms
to tap into that SPC has placed us with another outlook for severe
storms. Most of our area was placed with a Marginal Risk (1 out
of 5), while our southernmost couple of tiers of counties are in a
Slight Risk (2 out of 5). Temperatures will be more mild and
diurnally limited, with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs
tomorrow in the low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 429 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025

A large scale upper trough will be over the eastern conus at the
start of the period, with multiple waves of varying amplitude
moving through it. One or two of these smaller waves and an
associated surface low could still be affecting our area on
Sunday, but there is not agreement on how quickly their influence
will pass to our east. The highest POP on Sunday has been placed
early in the day. A much larger and more potent upper low will be
shifting southeast toward the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday,
temporarily deepening the larger scale trough and supporting a
cold front. This front will arrive on Monday with a likely POP.
There could be a secondary front (evident in the GFS) on Tuesday,
and the precip lingers in the forecast until then. Drying then
arrives for midweek as surface high pressure passes through the
area. As this happens, the upper low will be weakening, opening,
and getting carried away to the east in the prevailing flow. This
leaves upper level ridging to build in from the west, cutting off
our reprieve from summer weather. Warmer readings and gradually
climbing dew points will arrive late in the week. A shortwave or
modest upper low also riding up the western side of the ridge late
in the week is expected to work at flattening it. With gulf moisture
also making a comeback, some showers/thunderstorms won`t be ruled
out on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025

An area of showers and some storms was approaching the area from
the west at issuance time. This activity should generally weaken
as it moves into the more stabilized environment over eastern KY.
However, it should still lead to MVFR or lower conditions at least
briefly with some showers and storms anticipated for at least
portions of the area during the first 12 hours of the period.
From around 06Z onward, low MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to
move into the area or develop with some improvements by about 1
category through 18Z and largely VFR prevailing late, before a
chance for more widespread convection. Winds outside of storms
will be light and generally out of the south to west through 09Z,
before shifting more to more westerly to northerly thereafter.
Higher gusts to upwards of 30KT or greater are possible within
any stronger showers or storms, particularly late in the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP