031
FXUS63 KJKL 201104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
704 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

- The next substantive chance at rain arrives Monday.

- A wavering frontal boundary may affect the area later next
  week, bringing more possibilities of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025

Refreshed T/Td grids with the latest observations. Also removed
fog from the grids, as no vis reductions were being observed thus
far across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025

Looking across CONUS currently, showers and thunderstorms along a
boundary are occurring from Texas up through Missouri. 500-mb
height analysis shows an upper level low just upstream of these
storms, over New Mexico. As the day unfolds this upper level low
and surface low will move northeast into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley.

For eastern Kentucky, a weak cold front will sag south through
the mid morning, leading to lower cloud heights, mainly along and
north of the Hal-Rogers/Kentucky-80 corridor. Patchy morning fog
will also be possible. As winds become light out of the south this
afternoon this boundary will effectively become a warm front and
begin retreating back north through the rest of the afternoon and
early evening. This will lead to cloud heights improving.
Temperatures today are expected to range from the upper 70s to
upper 80s from north to south. The NBM uses a daily running mean
average when calculating temperatures and is susceptible to
inaccuracies during periods of drastic pattern changes. A good
example of this can be seen in yesterday`s forecasted highs in
the low 80s. The daily running average was pulling in a period of
previous weather that was anomalously cold. Since we were entering
a pattern of above average temperatures the NBM forecast high ran
cooler than what actually occurred (mid-upper 80s yesterday).
That is why the decision was made to use a 60/40 blend of the NBM
with the 50th percentile to bump temperatures a few degrees warmer
today.

Heading into Monday, the upper level and surface lows will
continue progressing north, into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Its
attached cold front will extend south through the Mississippi
Valley, including parts of Kentucky early in the morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will overtake the area through the day as the
cold front progresses east. Temperatures will be cooler, generally
remaining in the 70s. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest at
10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible. Higher gusts could
occur around or near any thunderstorm cores.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025

By Monday evening, the cold front is modeled over eastern
Kentucky, with the low now over SE Canada. Thunderstorms may
linger into early Monday evening, but should taper with lingering
showers, as daytime heating is lost. Winds are also expected to
subside heading into the evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday, as the low continues to push further into
Canada the cold front tries to progress east as well, however a
strong high pressure located over SE CONUS will slow its
departure. Lingering showers can be expected across eastern
Kentucky Tuesday, mainly along and south of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80
corridor. A slight chance of showers (15-25% chance) lingers into
Wednesday, mainly south of the I-64 corridor. Similar to Monday,
temperatures will generally remain in the 70s Tuesday afternoon,
and warm into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday, while model consensus remains fairly
spread out, a series of shortwaves look to bring multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky, with the
greatest likelihood occurring on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. The only
exception is the possibility of localized MVFR conditions early
this morning. The best chances for MVFR CIGS would be along and
north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor, and would be short lived.
Ceiling heights will improve with a warm front moving north later
this morning and afternoon. These CIG reductions were too low
confidence to include in the TAFs at this time. Tonight into
Monday morning, a cold front will slowly move into eastern
Kentucky. This may lead to lowering CIGS from west to east when
approaching 12Z Monday. Showers and possible thunderstorms look
possible beyond the TAF period. Low level wind shear looks to
develop later tonight as well, mainly after 06Z, with low level
winds as high as 40 kts possible


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK/CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK/CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK