012
FXUS63 KJKL 121500 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1000 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Instances of high water could be possible through Thursday
  morning as another system moves through the Commonwealth.

- Heavy rainfall is looking like a good bet this weekend, with a
  heightened possibility of flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EST WED FEB 12 2025

14Z sfc analysis shows a low centered to the southwest of the area
with a currently stationary boundary extended northeast through
southeast Kentucky. To the northwest of this, winds are generally
light from the northeast while they are more southerly to the
southeast. Temperatures (and dewpoints) vary from just above
freezing northwest to the mid 40s in the southeast. There is also
ample areas of fog out there - mainly where the snow of yesterday
is still melting in the light rain and drizzle of this morning.
Dreary low clouds are also found for the northern parts of the
area with that melting snow. Have updated the forecast mainly to
take out the early morning winter weather threat for our north,
but also to adjust PoPs, Sky, and precipitation types into the
afternoon. The latest obs and trends were also incorporated into
the T/Td grids, as well. These adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO,
and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2025

The latest surface analysis across area shows the remnants of
yesterday`s synoptic cold front over the area. The lingering
boundary is providing enough lift to keep patchy mixed precipitation
across the I-64 corridor. Due to that, the Winter Weather Advisory
has been extended through 9 AM today. Our next weather feature is to
the south of us but has slowly been working north overnight. Showers
associated with this system are mainly in Tennessee but will be
moving into the JKL CWA over the next few hours as the associated
warm front lifts into the region.

Over the next could of hours, a warm front, which is extended from
an approaching surface low, will lift into the region and bring
increasing chances of showers throughout the day. The track of the
low continues to be straight through the Commonwealth into the Ohio
Valley which would keep the area in the warm air leading to all
rain. The axis of heavy precipitation is forecast to remain to the
southeast of the area; however, forecast total rainfall through the
event ranges from 0.30" in the Bluegrass/I-64 corridor to 0.50"
across the heart of the CWA to slightly under an inch near the
Virginia border where the axis of heavier precipitation is expected
to line up. However, due to recent rainfall, snowmelt and forecast
convection, opted to extend and add counties to the Flood Watch
which will run through Thursday morning. Once the system, ejects
northeast, the associated cold front will move through the CWA and
decreasing PoP will be expected through the overnight Wednesday into
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2025

A disturbance crosses the Ohio Valley Thursday evening into the
overnight, with residual low-level moisture perhaps producing some
drizzle from low clouds in far eastern parts of southeastern
Kentucky, but otherwise a clearing trend into Friday morning
combined with weak cold advection will result in chilly conditions
to begin the day Friday, with mid-teens to around 20 degrees
expected. With mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies Friday,
temperatures rebound into the upper 30s north to upper 40s south.

Attention then turns to a potent disturbance rounding the base of a
large upper trough over the Western U.S. and Mexico Plateau region
Friday night that will sweep east toward the Ohio Valley Saturday
into Saturday night. A series of warm fronts will push northeast
across eastern Kentucky Friday evening and continue into the day
Saturday, allowing for a significant warming and moistening trend.
By Saturday afternoon, at least one and possibly two stationary or
warm fronts will reside across eastern Kentucky, serving as focal
mechanisms for moderate to heavy rain to develop well ahead of the
approaching upper disturbance and cold front. The stationary/warm
fronts by themselves would already be concerning enough from a hydro
perspective given saturated soils and swollen streams/rivers, but
then the actual cold front approaches from the west with another
round of heavy showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into the
overnight. Models continue to suggest an ominous amount of rain,
with widespread 2.5- to 4.0-inch QPF forecast. Given all the
ingredients suggestive of a widespread heavy rain event, the WPC has
upgraded much of eastern Kentucky to a Moderate Risk for excessive
rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night. Interests in eastern and
southeastern Kentucky Saturday into Saturday night should be attuned
to the potential for significant flooding issues.

Cold air spills into the region behind the cold frontal passage,
with the potential for light accumulating snow on the back side of
the system Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Chilly and dry
weather is then expected until mid-week, when models suggest a weak
southern stream system may bring an additional round of light snow
beginning late Tuesday night. This potential will be covered in
future forecast packages over the coming days as the system moves
within the 7-day official forecast window.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED FEB 12 2025

Conditions are largely LIFR to IFR across all TAF sites due to low
CIGS and poor VSBY. Some improvement is expected but really only
into IFR. Showers are beginning to develop to the west of the area
but better chances for showers will be this afternoon and evening
as another surface wave moves into the area. Accompanying the
showers, LLWS will develop once the warm front lifts through the
area after 00Z with LLWS lingering through 09Z. Sustained
southerly winds around 10 knots with gusts to 18 knots are
forecast with LLWS reaching southwesterly from 45 to 50 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ058-068-069-079-080-
083>088-107>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST