231
FXUS63 KJKL 100755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
255 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season is currently moving into
  the region.

- The first snowflakes of the season are coming down this morning
  and will continue through the day from rounds of snow showers.
  Mainly light accumulations are possible, primarily on grassy and
  elevated surfaces.

- With the snow through the evening, higher elevation locations
  nearer to the Virginia border are the most likely to have travel
  impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

No substantial changes were made to the forecast with mainly the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but
also a touch up to the PoPs and snow per the current radar returns
and CAMs consensus guidance. The best snow has shifted east of
the office with this current wave, but some light activity is
expected for a good chunk of the forecast area into dawn as
temperatures continue to drop. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones, HWO, WSW, SPS, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 805 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure west of the region
pumping colder air into eastern Kentucky this evening. This is
helping to change over a wave of light rain showers, working east
through the area, to snow. Look for the rain to become mixed with
snow through the rest of the evening with a transition to all
snow - mainly just flurries by midnight for most of the area.
Currently, temperatures vary from the mid 30s west to near 40 in
the far southeast - with 28 degrees noted on top of Black Mountain
per the Kentucky Mesonet. Also important, amid northwest winds
around 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints are dropping off
from west to east with low 30s poised to enter the JKL forecast
area in the west to the mid 30s holding on in the east. The drier
air will help to lower the wetbulb and allow for the transition
to snow for most of the area, though snow is likely falling above
3000 feet in the far east. The current forecast is on track -
still looking for the biggest impact with the second wave coming
tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Accordingly, have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. Did also tweak the near term PoPs and snow
transition based on the current radar returns and CAMs consensus
guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 447 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

Updated the forecast with the latest observational data and
tweaked temperature and dew point trends ahead of the system
tonight through Monday. Forecast remains on track with no major
changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

A high amplitude pattern continues across CONUS, with a strong 588-
dm ridge of high pressure over the Western US, and a 528-dm trough
over Western Ontario. Rain showers continue through the afternoon
with the high for the day already occurring earlier this morning.
Cold air from behind the cold front will continue to move into
the region through the afternoon and evening. At current
temperatures range from the upper 30s to near 40 across western
parts of the area, to upper 40s in the far east. As sunset nears
rain will likely become a rain/snow mix before eventually changing
over to all snow around or slightly after midnight tonight. Snow
accumulations will generally be light through tonight, generally
one-half inch or less on grassy and elevated surfaces, especially
given warm surface temperatures. Lows tonight will bottom out in
the low to mid 20s across the area.

Monday, another round of snow showers is expected, and there may
also be a period of steadier snow for up to several hours during the
afternoon and evening Monday. The progressive nature of the system
will keep total snow accumulations below 2 inches for much of the
area. The warm surface temperatures should keep snow depths much
lower than actual snow accumulations. For areas along the VA/KY and
WV/KY boarder may see 1-3 inches of snowfall. These areas are
currently in a Winter Weather Advisory through 7 AM Tuesday.
Highs Monday are only expected to reach the lower to mid 30s
before falling back into the 20s Monday night. Generally some
minor travel impacts are possible Monday into Monday night. Those
traveling Monday evening should plan on slick or slippery road
conditions and reduced visibilities at times, especially for
roadways at 1500 feet elevation or above.

The exact track of the secondary wave may still shift some. This
could effect where some of the heavier banding of snow occurs during
the day Monday. There may be a need to re-evealuate and expand the
advisory if the heaviest snows shift.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The main change to the extended forecast this morning were to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures through the
rest of the week and into the start of the weekend. Otherwise,
mostly dry weather should hold through the first part of the
weekend before another large weather system approaches from the
west returning rain chances to the area by late Sunday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Confluent northwesterly mid-level flow on the back side of a highly
amplified upper trough exiting the East Coast Tuesday morning will
quickly transition to a more west-northwesterly flow through
Wednesday as an active jet stream remains across the area. This will
promote fairly moderate warm advection in the lower levels across
the Ohio Valley region, allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound
back to near normal levels by Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses
the area later Wednesday with high pressure moving into the area for
Thursday, before warm advection begins to increase again across the
much of the central part of the country allowing for temperatures to
rise to above normal levels for the end of the week into the
weekend. Model uncertainty increases by next weekend, especially
upstream over the central part of the country, but confidence is
high in strong warm advection will allow for above normal
temperatures during that time. Any potential precipitation chances
appear limited to the late week into the weekend time frame with
possible light rain showers associated with a passing warm front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The bulk of the snow showers have shifted east of the TAF sites
for all but SJS. This will will mean mainly MVFR CIGs but some
brief IFR or lower possible with any stray snow showers. These
light snow showers and flurries will be around through the
morning, though by afternoon we will likely see more impactful
snow showers with poor aviation conditions due to low CIGs and
times of low VIS lasting into the first part of the evening. West
to northwest winds will generally be around 10 kts with gusts as
high as 20 kts through the rest of the night. Look for similar
wind speeds favoring the northwest direction during the day along
with gusts up to 25 kts accompanying any of those afternoon
heavier snow showers.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ087-088-
118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF