729
FXUS63 KJKL 131927
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
327 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected to persist over the next week.

- Temperatures are forecast to be above normal well into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025

Shortwave ridging over the area breaks down through the remainder of
the weekend, with a disturbance moving across the area within
northerly mid-level flow Sunday morning through Sunday evening on
the backside of a weak longwave trough/low.

Models, some CAMS in particular, develop showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms north of the Ohio River, with this activity moving
south into northern Kentucky. Low-end PoPs have been carried over
into our western and northwestern counties later this afternoon
through tonight, and then extending south primarily along and west
of the escarpment. Model soundings suggest any activity that reaches
our CWA will be on a weakening/dissipating trend, with precipitation
generated from mid-level clouds above a dry lower atmosphere. Thus,
any shower activity that does occur is not likely to produce
measureable rainfall.

Better instability arrives for Sunday with cooler temperatures
aloft, but the lower levels will remain quite dry. Thus, have kept
thunder chances quite low, with very low-end shower chances
primarily over the far southwest in the morning to midday period,
and then dry thereafter.

Temperatures continue their gradual warming trend, with lows tonight
in the 50s to lower 60s rising on average about 1 to 3 degrees for
Sunday night. Highs Sunday will reach into the 80s once again, with
upper 80s possible toward the Bluegrass region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025

By Monday, upper-level ridging and high pressure will be in place
from the Great Lakes to the northeast. A weakening trough extending
along the eastern seaboard into New Brunswick will begin to break
apart, leaving a cutoff low off the Carolina coast. This will
place eastern Kentucky in the confluence zone of easterly flow
aloft under a Rex Block pattern for the first half of the week.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough starts to dig across the northern
Plains, and this shortwave will continue eastward and push across
the Great Lakes as the week progresses.

The Rex Block pattern will help sustain fairly consistent
temperatures through the work week, with highs in the mid to upper
80s across the bulk of eastern Kentucky and in the 70s along the
eastern KY ridgetops. NBM temperature spreads are low (2-3
degrees difference between 25th and 75th percentile values)
indicating high confidence in temperatures remaining consistent.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to stay in the low 60s.
Areas of fog are expected to develop in the valleys in the early
morning hours each day this week as well.

While winds are generally expected to remain light, afternoon
relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 35-45% range
Monday-Wednesday. The lowest relative humidity values will be
furthest north, especially along and north of the I-64 corridor.
With dry conditions expected to prevail through at least mid-week,
fuels may dry out further, creating favorable conditions for
burning.

Precip chances stay low (<10%) Monday through Thursday, increasing
to 15-25% Friday afternoon and 25-30% on Saturday as the shortwave
energy reaches the eastern US and breaks apart the Rex pattern. LREF
members begin to deviate some starting midweek, with GEFS/GEPS
members favoring more progressive flow and a faster dissolution of
the cutoff low in the southeast, and EPS favoring a solution where
the cutoff low lingers longer. If the faster solution pans out, PoPs
would trend earlier (increasing rain chances Thursday rather than
Friday, which is current NBM solution).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception
of river valley fog formation expected beginning around or after
the 03z to 06z time frame tonight, and possibly lingering as late
as 14z Sunday in some locations before dissipating. Some
convective shower activity could affect western portions of the
area after 22z Saturday, but have opted not include anything in
the TAFs for that at this point. Outside of any stray convective
showers, light and variable winds are expected through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CMC