918
FXUS63 KJKL 181854
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
254 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog will become locally dense in the valleys overnight.

- Following low end rain chances Tuesday, chances will increase
  midweek then linger into the weekend.

- Expect temperatures to return to near normal by midweek, with
  even cooler temperatures in store this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

Current satellite shows a mid level cumulus field that has
developed across eastern Kentucky. These clouds are expected to
dissipate heading into the evening. Dry conditions will continue
this afternoon and overnight, with a ridge of high pressure
remaining over the area. Temperatures have risen into the mid to
upper 80s across much of the area, with the warmest areas
currently around 90, in Wayne county. Temperatures may warm
another degree or two, but should generally remain in the upper
80s to low 90s. This evening, clearing skies and fairly light
winds will favor river valley fog formation across far eastern
Kentucky and Southeastern Kentucky, such as the Cumberland area.
ridge top locations, across the Big Sandy area remain elevated,
and may mitigate fog potential some. Temperatures will cool into
the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure weakens some, as a strong
upper level low, and associated trough axis and cold front, begin
to push encroach on the Upper Great Lakes Region and The Ohio
River Valley. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler
than previous days, though the NBM continue to push a warm bias.
With model 850-mb temperatures around 20C and the unlikelihood of
mixing that air down dry adiabatically, we`ve adjusted
temperatures down some, to fall more in line with the 50th
percentile of guidance, generally around 90 tomorrow, with a few
warmer spots getting into the low 90s. With the ridge weakening,
there may be enough forcing to kick off some isolated to
scattered showers or storms across the southern part of the CWA.
Most models do not hint at this, with the HRRR hinting at some
activity in the afternoon, especially over the high terrain of
Harlan county, and the TN/KY boarder. While this alone isn`t
enough to make this kind of adjustment to the forecast, a
consistent issue that has been noted while using forecast models
across Eastern Kentucky has been the underdone dew points. Models
continually under-does available moisture which in turn causes
underdone modeled storm activity. Felt better adding a low end
shower and storm chance across the Cumberland area than leaving
zero chance of rain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

High pressure will lose its influence by Wednesday as the upper
high retreats westward and the upper flow becomes much less
amplified. At the surface, ridging will be replaced by a trough of
low pressure across the Commonwealth that will show little
movement until this weekend, when it will finally push southward
and be replaced by another ridge of high pressure. Rain and storm
chances will therefore return to all of eastern Kentucky on
Wednesday, with lesser PoPs on Thursday and Friday, then better
rain chances on Saturday as the aforementioned surface boundary
begins its exit, then diminishing rain chances thereafter.
Temperatures will cool off somewhat beginning on Thursday, with
the cooling trend accelerating by Sunday. The air mass that fills
in starting next week will feel almost autumn-like, and will
surely be a welcome reprieve from the summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2025

A scattered CU field currently exists across much of the area
which should dissipate heading into the evening. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period for most sites. Some areas of
river valley fog are expected to develop again tonight for parts
of the Cumberland, where KLOZ and KSME visibility could drop down
to IFR conditions after 09Z. Elsewhere, winds remain to elevated
aloft in model soundings to support the same vis reductions at
KSJS. Fog development remains less likely at KSYM with afternoon
dew points in the low 60s, and forecasted lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...GINNICK