077
FXUS63 KJKL 250528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
128 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area
  tonight will last through the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as the drier and cooler air behind the departing cold front is
working into the area. This should spare much of the CWA from fog
overnight with large dewpoint depressions outside of the far
southeast where some showers developing in the evening. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows a mostly dry cold front crossing eastern
Kentucky. This is generating a few showers mainly northeast of
JKL. Behind this boundary, high pressure with a drier and cooler
air mass is pushing into the area. Currently, temperatures are
running in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid the winds turning
northwest at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints range
from the low 50s north to the mid 60s in the south - still ahead
of the front. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune
PoPs through the evening. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

A cold front is currently progressing southeast through the
forecast area. Drying is occurring even before fropa, especially
aloft. While instability is present, entrainment of dry air aloft
has been inhospitable for sustained updrafts. There have been some
sporadic sprinkles or extremely isolated small showers showing up
on radar near the front, but it`s not been enough to warrant a
20% POP. Have opted to include a slight chance of sprinkles in the
forecast as the front pushes through late this afternoon and
evening. Once the front passes and clouds dry up, mainly clear
skies are expected into the day Monday. A few fair weather cu will
probably pop up for a time during peak heating on Monday, and an
increase in high clouds is forecast for a time late Monday into
Monday evening (mainly over the southern portion of the forecast
area) in association with a shortwave trough and the right
entrance region of an upper jet. However, no precip will occur.
Decreasing clouds follow for Monday night.The front will bring a
big air mass change, leading to our coolest temperatures since
early June.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025

Ensembles and models are in good agreement, that a series of troughs
will bring fall like temperatures to Eastern Kentucky through mid-
week. Tuesday, an upper-level low is modeled over Southern Quebec,
with a trough axis extending south and west into the Upper Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will usher in cooler air
through the day, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. With
continued light northerly winds and mostly clear skies, overnight
lows may cool into the lower 50s along ridges, and mid to upper 40s
in valleys.

Wednesday, as the initial trough axis begins shifting east of
Kentucky, another shortwave begins to work its way in from the
northwest, out of Western Ontario. Winds will remain out of the
northwest through the afternoon reinforcing the cooler dry air. Have
coordinated with neighboring offices to lower afternoon dew points
Wednesday, using a combination of the 10th and 25th percentiles of
the NBM to achieve this. Afternoon temperatures will likely remain
in the low to mid 70s. Overnight, cloud cover is expected to
increase ahead of the next incoming shortwave. Temperatures will
generally remain similar to Tuesday evening, in the lower 50s along
ridges, and mid to upper 40s in valleys. Some of the typical cold
spots may see lower 40s.

Thursday, models depict the trough axis progressing through, and
east of Eastern Kentucky during the day. Rising 500-mb heights in
the wake of the trough will lead to some warming, and variable
winds. Temperatures in the upper 70s will result. Dry conditions will
continue, with a very small chance (<15% chance) of seeing a shower
across the TN/KY boarder. Chances were so low they weren`t included
in the weather grids.

Friday through Sunday, Cluster Analysis remains in fairly good
agreement of a large scale trough over the Northeastern US. What
isn`t exactly clear is how it translates to sensible weather in
Kentucky. With an exiting trough, mid-level height rises would
indicate column warming and that`s reflected in slightly warmer
temperatures (upper 70s to near 80), however model agreement over a
strong shortwave across the Central and Southern Plains remains off.
With model disagreement on low placement and other key features
forecast confidence remains low heading into next weekend, though
there may be a signal for perhaps some rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2025

VFR TAFs are largely expected through the overnight. However,
valley fog could develop and work into a few TAF sites causing a
reduction in category through 13Z/Monday. Once fog burns off,
sites will return to VFR and remain VFR through the rest of the
period. Lastly, light and variable winds will prevail through the
TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST