975
FXUS63 KJKL 120850
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather is expected to continue for the
  next seven days for eastern Kentucky.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for much of the upcoming week.

- While confidence in specific details is low, the next chance of
  rain will likely come next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley
still dominating the weather for Kentucky though there is a
significant storm off the southeast coast that is sending some
high clouds into eastern parts of the area. These clouds, and some
lingering ones from a nearby dissipating front, did not slow down
the radiational cooling all that much this night. As a result, a
moderate ridge to valley temperature difference was noted through
the night along with the development of some fog in the river
valleys. Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s on the
hills to the mid 40s in the low spots. Meanwhile, amid light
northeasterly winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper
40s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a twin poled trough east of the Ohio
Valley and through the Southeast at 5h. The northern center near
Pennsylvania will drift south with time into the start of the new
work week while the southern core slowly lifts north to
eventually be absorbed into one minima off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
toward the end of the period. Upstream of this trough ridging will
nose into Kentucky from the southwest keeping the pattern quiet
and benign over this part of the state - with any mid level energy
staying well to the east through Monday and beyond. The models`
continued small spread supported the NBM as the starting point of
the grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just terrain
driven enhancements to the hourly temperatures at night.

Sensible weather features seasonably warm temperatures during the
days with dry conditions through the start of the new work week.
Any lingering high clouds from the sfc cyclone well east of
Kentucky will likely not interfere with the dry air`s ability to
warm each day. Valley fog can be expected late at night (and early
each morning) along with modest ridge to valley temperature
differences.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures at night along
with some extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the
afternoons. Did also tweak afternoon temps a notch higher today,
as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

Once again the main changes to the extended forecast this morning
were to enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to
valley split to the temperatures each night through the upcoming
week, along with a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the
mix down of lower dewpoints aloft. PoPs still appear to be quite
limited during the upcoming week but there is increasing
confidence in chances of showers or storms returning to the area
for next weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be
defined by atmospheric ridging and generally good agreement amongst
the available pieces of forecast guidance. A cold front is poised to
approach the forecast area by mid-week, but its impacts will likely
be limited to only a modest cool down. The pattern begins to shift
towards the end of the forecast period, but this corresponds with
increasing model spread and decreasing confidence in the extended-
range sensible weather forecast. Therefore, confidence is high that
conditions will remain on the dry side through at least Friday,
October 17th.

When the period begins on Monday morning, midlevel ridging will be
building into the greater Ohio River Valley. The influence of this
feature will increase headed into Tuesday, and the associated
subsidence and height rises point towards dry and warm sensible
weather. At the surface, the commonwealth will be positioned between
a pair of phasing coastal cyclones off the Atlantic coast and a
quickly-ejecting Canadian low. This leads to a broad area of
relatively high pressure to the west of the forecast area, which
favors persistent north-northeasterly surface flow. Together, this
pattern favors mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures
for Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the low to mid 70s in the
first half of the work week, with overnight ridge-valley temperature
splits. While ridgetops will likely see lows in the 50-54 degrees
range, efficient radiational cooling will allow valleys to easily
cool into the 40s. This also favors the formation of overnight
river valley fog, but the persistent dryness could gradually
reduce the spatial coverage of said fog with each passing night
this week.

By mid-week, the cold front associated with the aforementioned
Canadian low is forecast to approach the Ohio River Valley, but it
will be in somewhat of an orphaned state. The ejection of the parent
cyclone into the Hudson Bay and the northward displacement of all
mid/upper level dynamic forcing will limit this system`s ability to
produce widespread cloud cover, let alone precipitation. Persistent
northerly wind components throughout the column will keep the column
fairly dry before, during, and after FROPA, further suppressing the
PoPs. There is a signal for some midlevel cloud coverage in the
northern half of the forecast area on Wednesday associated with the
front, but the only real sensible weather impact from the mid-week
system will be slightly cooler temperatures. Efficient diurnal
warming could still allow cloudless southwestern portions of the
forecast area to warm to the mid-70s on Wednesday, but overnight
lows are poised to cool into the 40s area wide by Thursday morning.
By Thursday afternoon, longwave troughing will have amplified over
the Eastern CONUS and shunted the early-week ridge back towards the
Ozarks. This translates towards cooler afternoon MaxTs (upper 60s)
across the northeastern half of the forecast area, with low 70s
still forecast closer to the ridge in vicinity of Lake Cumberland.

The shifting of midlevel synoptic features on Thursday marks the
beginning of an overall pattern change, although the forecast
guidance suite begins to diverge around this same time. The forecast
generally trends towards return flow out of the south/southwest at
some point late next week, although the models vary upon the timing
and magnitude of the resultant moisture influx. Temperatures tick
back up towards the mid 70s next weekend, but this warmth could be
met with returning rain chances just beyond the end of the period.
It remains too early to provide specifics regarding timing/amounts,
but there is a signal next weekend for some relief from the
persistent dryness that we`ve experienced as of late here in the
Commonwealth. Before then, expect dryness to dominate the long term
forecast period and generally pleasant weather for any
planned outdoor fall activities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025

High pressure will build into eastern Kentucky from the Great
Lakes through the rest of the weekend while a slow moving low
pressure system creeps up the eastern seaboard. Some high clouds
from this later feature will pass over eastern portions of the
area into the morning hours. VFR conditions prevailed at issuance
time and are expected to hold across the region during the next 24
hours, with one caveat - fog. Renewed fog development is currently
underway in the valleys and will be around for the remainder of
the night - dissipating by 14Z. The TAF sites should remain VFR
through the period, with a small possibility for some of that fog
to lift into KSME, KSJS, or KSYM, though confidence in this
scenario was still too low to include in the TAFs. Light and
variable winds will prevail until around 14Z, before the winds
become northeast to north at less than 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF