737
FXUS63 KJKL 310947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will average well above normal through the middle
  of next week.

- A soaking rain will last into today for most places.

- Isolated occurrences of high water cannot be ruled out early
  this morning at locations impacted by the heaviest rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025

While the models showed differing solutions to different degrees,
the NAM12, NAMNEST, and WPC guidance all had similar solutions
regarding the passage of weather systems today and tonight, and
the evolution of precipitation associated with both systems. The
latest surface charts have an area of low pressure situated over
northwest Missouri, with an occluded front extending southeastward
across most of the state. A warm front extended eastward and
southeastward from the occlusion and across far southwest Kentucky
and into central Tennessee. A cold front extended southward from
the occlusion/warm front confluence down the central and southern
Mississippi Valley and into the Gulf of Mexico.

A well developed low pressure system will be moving through the
Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions today, and will bring widespread
cloud cover and rainfall, which could be locally heavy at times
early this morning, to eastern Kentucky. The early rounds of rain
will be associated with a northeastward moving warm front. This
boundary is expected to pass through the area this morning, with a
cold front right on its heels. With winds shifting to the south
and strengthening early today, a surge of unseasonably warm air
will push northward into the forecast area. This surge of air
will, in spite of the widespread rainfall we are expecting today,
should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to low 60s
around eastern Kentucky today. The ongoing rain will finally begin
to taper off this afternoon, as a cold front moves through the
area, with most of the rain expected to exit the area by mid-
afternoon today. After that, a secondary cold front is forecast to
move in behind the initial cold front. This second front will
also bring a few additional rounds of rain to the area, but this
should only be isolated to scattered rain showers, this evening
through late tonight. After the second cold front clears the area
during the predawn hours on Saturday, a surge of much cooler air
is then expected to filter in behind the departed cold front.
This shot of cool air should be potent enough to keep Saturday`s
high temperatures roughly 7 to 11 degrees cooler than today`s
expected maxes, as winds shift to the west and then northwest
behind the departed cold front. Widespread cloud cover will
envelope the area today as well, but should finally begin to
scatter out from west to east beginning late this afternoon, with
partly cloudy skies on tap this evening. The clouds will thicken
again, however, during the passage of the second cold front late
this evening into the overnight. Cloud cover should slowly but
steadily thin out and move out of the area on Saturday, with
partly cloudy skies expected by the end of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 447 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025

The period will start with fast zonal flow aloft across the CONUS,
with sprawling surface high pressure centered over far southeast
Ontario and low pressure over the plains in the lee of the
mountains. This will place our local area in warm air advection
between the high and the low, but moisture will still be meager.
This should result in sizable diurnal temperature differences,
especially for valleys, with cool nights, mild days, and a warming
trend.

An upper level impulse riding along the northern edge of the fast
flow is expected to take surface low pressure eastward over south
central and southeast Canada Sunday through Monday, just north of
the border. A trailing cold front should reach us late Monday or
Monday night as much colder air oozes southward. With flow aloft
still rather flat, the cold air mass won`t have much push, and
models are having a tough time resolving how far south the colder
air can penetrate. The GFS is generating some light precip for our
area in association with the front on Monday night, and a token
20% has been included in the forecast. The questionable progress
of the front and the air mass behind it makes for an uncertain
temperature forecast in the Monday night to Tuesday night time
frame.

Regardless of how far the front gets, it is expected to reverse
course and head back north as a warm front at mid week. This will
occur in response to upper level troughing descending over the
Pacific Northwest and inducing broad downstream ridging passing
over us. The warm air advection regime with its isentropic lift
will present our next significant rain threat at midweek, although
details at that time range are still a bit sketchy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2025

VFR CIGs were ongoing at the start of the TAF period at all
airports, with VSBYs in the MVFR to IFR range across the board.
Based on upstream obs, ongoing rainfall, and the latest model
data, conditions at each TAF site will likely fall into the IFR
range overnight, at least at times, as a strong storm system moves
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tonight through most of the
day on Friday. If current trends continue, we will see persistent
widespread rainfall, overcast skies, and low level cloud cover
across the forecast through the late morning hours. The
precipitation should begin tapering off from west to east
beginning around 18Z today, with only isolated to scattered
showers remaining by 21 or 22Z, along with SCT clouds at VFR
levels. Low level wind shear of up to 45 kts still looks to be a
concern overnight as well. Surface winds will increase to 10 to
15 kts out of the south or southwest during the day today, with
gusts of up to 25 kts possible at times across the forecast area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR