769
FXUS63 KJKL 190642
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
242 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog may become locally dense in the valleys overnight.

- Following low end rain chances Tuesday night, chances will peak
  on Wednesday and also linger through the remainder of the week
  and into the weekend.

- Expect temperatures to return to near normal Wednesday, with
  even cooler temperatures in store by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025

We have one more day of really hot weather in store before
temperatures start to ease off tomorrow. There are very low rain
chances today. In fact, PoPs are too low to include mention in
the public forecast, but we also cannot completely rule out an
isolated shower or two popping up during the afternoon, especially
at higher elevations near the KY/VA border. Rain chances will
start to increase tonight as an upper trough replaces the ridging
that we`ve been underneath, and also a surface boundary comes
together along the Ohio Valley by this evening. Rain chances will
increase considerably on Wednesday as the southeastward-moving
surface boundary interacts with what promises to be a very
unstable environment. Indeed, by 18Z the boundary should be all
the way through eastern KY, so this means that any active weather
that does develop during the afternoon tomorrow will likely be
post-frontal. The region remains under a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for tomorrow/tomorrow night, so a few of the
cells that do develop may produce heavy rainfall. But overall QPF
values from now through Wednesday (36-hour totals) remain under
1/4" across the bulk of eastern KY.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025

Lower rain and storm chances remain in the forecast for Thursday
and Friday as there will still be plenty of instability and
moisture in place across eastern KY. By week`s end, the
aforementioned surface boundary appears to retrograde and build
back into the local area, thereby bringing increased rain and
storm chances on Saturday. This feature will finally come through
as a cold front on Sunday or Sunday night while a weak upper
trough accompanies the fropa. So look for a significant air mass
change by the first of next week as rain chances drop off and
autumn-like temperatures replace the heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature both aloft and
at the surface, and the overnight potential for radiation fog is
negligible with the exception of SME and SJS, where dew point
spreads are already quite small and reduced vsbys appear
probable. Rain chances today are quite low, so we`ll leave
convection out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE