518
FXUS63 KJKL 021551
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1151 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend commences through the end of the work
  week.

- After a lull in convection for most places this week, a shower
  and thunderstorm potential returns for the latter part of the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

No significant changes are needed with the midday forecast update.
T/Td/Sky/PoP grids were updated, with a modest increase in PoPs
along the immediate Virginia border.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

07Z sfc analysis shows that the earlier stationary front has
slipped south of the state on account of strong high pressure
extending its influence south through the entire Ohio Valley. This
is also spreading drier air south into this part of Kentucky
helping to clear the sky - as some mid level clouds are holding
on in the south where sprinkles remain possible. Overall, this was
a decent setup for radiational cooling for much of the area
outside of the Cumberland Valley resulting in a ridge to valley
temperature difference into these early morning hours.
Specifically, temperatures vary from around 50 degrees in
sheltered low spots to the upper 50s and lower 60s on the hills
and over much of the south. Meanwhile, amid light north winds,
dewpoints range from the mid 40s north to the mid and upper 50s in
the south.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a fairly sharp node of the eastern 5h
trough moving south through the central Appalachians today. This
pushes brief height falls into and past the JKL CWA along with a
cluster of mid-level energy. Ridging moving in from the west
follows the trough tonight setting up the benign longwave pattern
that closes out the work week. By Wednesday evening, this rather
strong 5h (590 dm) ridge will be centered just west of JKL -
dominating the space. Given the good model agreement, the NBM was
used as the starting point for the short term grids. Minimal
adjustments were made mainly for terrain details in the hourly
and minimum temperatures tonight - along with slightly drier
dewpoints/RH each afternoon.

Sensible weather features chamber of commerce weather through the
short term and into the rest of the work week. This will mean
mostly sunny days and comfortable humidities with nights just on
the cool side of normal. Each night, look for some patchy valley
fog to develop and then dissipate by mid-morning. Dry and mostly
clear conditions will support ridge to valley temperature splits
at night, as well. Highs will be in the pleasant upper 70s for
most places today and then near 80 degrees on Wednesday. The only
caveat to this quiet weather pattern is a very small chance (less
than 15 percent) for a shower or thunderstorm near the West
Virginia and Virgnia border today thanks to the upper trough
passing the area. The last several runs of the HRRR have kept any
development today just east of Kentucky so have decided to keep
it dry there.

The changes to the NBM starting point mainly consisted of
dampening the low PoP and thunder chances in the far east today
given the lack of HRRR support. As for temperatures and
dewpoints, they were adjusted for a good deal of terrain detail
tonight along with a bit of extra drying each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

The main change to grids at the start of the extended forecast
this morning was to add in more terrain details each night on
account of a dry air mass and mostly clear skies that will be in
place through Saturday morning. Did also include a healthy amount
of valley fog each night. Ridging aloft still looks to keep things
dry and quiet through the end of the work week before return flow
moisture kicks up convection chances from late Saturday through
Monday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period opens in the midst of the gradual breakdown of the
previous blocking pattern. As the deep upper level trough migrates
off the East Coast, high amplitude ridging extending into the
Great Lakes region will progress eastward, leaving eastern
Kentucky temporarily between these two features. At the surface,
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will lead to
predominantly northeasterly winds on Wednesday; thus, drier air
will enter the forecast area, and with a dry atmospheric column
owing to northerly flow aloft, these dry conditions will prevail
throughout the day. Courtesy of clear skies, highs will warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. In terms of sensible
impacts, Thursdays weather will be similar, albeit with slightly
warmer high temperatures (low to mid 80s) as the upper level high
progresses east and height rises are expected aloft. Meanwhile,
the surface highs progression southeast will allow for winds to
become more westerly to southwesterly as the day progresses,
initiating modest low level moisture return, although the middle
and upper level moisture should still remain low enough to
maintain clear skies.

With clear skies and high pressure in place, the primary
deviation from NBM output was to add additional terrain influences
in the area, with a modest ridge-valley temperature split likely
overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. With the NBM running
cooler than guidance for ridges and warmer than guidance for
valleys, hourly and low temperatures were adjusted accordingly.
Even so, dewpoints in the upper 40s will provide a reasonable
floor for overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys, and
therefore mainstem river valleys can expect fog on Thursday
morning. With persisting clear skies, low temperatures will again
approach dewpoints overnight Thursday into Friday morning, hinting
at another chance for valley fog in prone areas.

On Friday, the upper level high is expected to drift farther
southeast, but we should get one more day of dry weather before
rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will again
be firmly in the 80s, but with a tightening pressure gradient and
southwesterly winds around the high over the southeast, moisture
return will continue. Dewpoints in the upper 50s or perhaps even
the 60s will be possible by Friday afternoon, and as the upper
level ridge continues to break down and the pattern aloft becomes
quasi-zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the
area starting on Saturday. In the absence of more defined synoptic
forcing, rain chances look to be relatively low on Saturday, but
by Sunday an upper level low over the upper Midwest/southern
Canada and its associated surface cyclone over the Great Lakes
region will push eastward. Concurrently, an upper level low over
the Southern Plains will also be progressing eastward, with a
broad area of modest height falls aloft. Accordingly, chances for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase again Sunday.
While the details of these upper level features are not fully
resolvable at this time, a shift towards a marginally wetter
pattern appears likely going into the late weekend and the start
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

High pressure dominates the weather over the region for the period
leading to mainly VFR conditions as a boundary continues to sag
well south of eastern Kentucky. The one caveat to VFR will be the
potential for valley fog with reductions to IFR, or possibly
lower, early this morning and again late tonight, though TAF
locations are not expected to be affected. Winds through the
period will be light and variable or northeast to north at
generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF