021
FXUS63 KJKL 231735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1235 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant warming trend will last through mid-week, with
  temperatures forecast to top 60 degrees on Wednesday.

- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night with
  our next good shot at rain (50-60% probability), followed by a
  modest downturn in temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

Full sunshine prevails across eastern Kentucky early this
afternoon as temperatures climb through the 30s and into the 40s.
Little change was made to the forecast for the remainder of today.
Expect daily maximum temperatures to range from 43F to 49F across
elevations below 2,000 feet MSL, warmest in the mainstem upper
Cumberland River Valley from Harlan to Pineville and also in the
Middlesboro Basin, coolest from the I-64 corridor northward and
over the highest ridgetops of Jackson/Rockcastle Counties.

UPDATE Issued at 935 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

Sunny skies prevail across eastern Kentucky at mid-morning as
temperatures warm from the 20s into the 30s. No changes were
made, except blending the latest obs into the hourly forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

Forecast is on track and no changes were necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

Another uneventful short term period is in store. Flow aloft will
be nearly zonal, and any shortwave troughs will pass by well to
our north and south. At the surface, high pressure over the spine
of the Appalachians will weaken and fade into high pressure
further east. The flow around the high will bring us warm air
advection with increasingly milder temperatures, while gulf
moisture continues to be cut off.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 650 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

The long term forecast period continues to be defined by an early-
week warming trend and widespread rain chances on Wednesday night/
Thursday morning. In the immediate wake of this mid-week system,
temperatures briefly dip back down near/below average values. The
progressive nature of the overarching weather pattern, however, will
yield a weekend warmup, albeit to a lesser degree than the one
earlier in the period. Confidence in this forecast is fairly high,
with remarkably good model agreement upon the placement,
progression, and evolution of the synoptic-scale atmospheric
features over the next seven days. Despite the rather volatile
pattern, the potential for hazardous weather in Eastern Kentucky
this week is very low.

When the period opens on Monday night, a clipper-type disturbance
will be approaching the Greater Ohio River Valley from the NW. A
surface high pressure system centered over the Gulf Coast states in
this timeframe will limit the amount of moisture that this clipper
has to work with. Forecast guidance continues to resolve a pocket of
modified Pacific moisture streaming into the mid/upper levels of the
atmosphere over Kentucky on Tuesday, but drier low levels will
greatly limit precipitation chances. A few sprinkles cannot be
entirely ruled out across Northern Kentucky on Tuesday, but the most
noticeable impacts from this first disturbance will be an increase
in cloud cover on Tuesday morning. As the system ejects to the east
on Tuesday afternoon, skies should clear and allow afternoon highs
to correspondingly warm into the mid/upper 50s.

On Wednesday, a stronger clipper system is expected to dive towards
Lake Michigan. The previously-discussed surface high will have
shifted closer to the Carolinas by then, placing Kentucky in a
regime of south-southwesterly surface winds. The resultant warm air
advection and low-level moisture return should yield afternoon highs
in the 60s across the entire forecast area. As the associated
mid/upper level troughing digs into the region overnight, the flow
aloft shifts towards the SW as well, leading to a brief period of
deeper moisture return. Forecast guidance resolves a narrow corridor
of surging PWATs (up to 1 inch) immediately ahead of the system`s
cold front. Frontal forcing and modest amounts of dynamic lift will
combine to produce convective rain showers on Wednesday night across
Eastern Kentucky. These showers will generally move from northwest
to southeast as the boundary sweeps through overnight, with PoPs
peaking between 50 and 60 percent immediately ahead of the front.
Thunderstorm potential has decreased compared to this time
yesterday, as the timing of the best lift and deeper moisture will
not align with peak diurnal instability here in Eastern Kentucky.
Likewise, the system`s progressive nature reduces the risk for
hydrological impacts. The current storm total QPF calls for between
0.2 and 0.4 inches of rain to fall from these showers. This would
not be enough to cause significant stream rises, and probabilistic
LREF and NBM ensemble guidance depict less than a 25 percent chance
of greater than 0.4 inches of rain with this system.

Precipitation chances will generally decrease from west to east in
the wake of the frontal passage on Thursday morning, but yet another
weak disturbance will approach the area from the NW on Thursday
evening. The primary effect of this third disturbance will be a
reinforcing shot of cool air, but some upslope precipitation is
possible overnight as well. Temperatures on Thursday will likely
remain in the 40s before dropping to near freezing on Friday
morning. As this cold air filters in, rain may mix with or
changeover to snow in high elevation locations along the Virginia
border. Any snow that falls would be low-impact, and skies should
quickly clear as this third system departs on Friday afternoon. High
temperatures should recover nicely into the 50s this weekend under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with winds less
than 10 kts. A few mid-to-high level clouds are expected at
times, primarily between 21 and 4z and again later in the day on
Monday, but any impacts on aviation should be nil.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON