831
FXUS63 KJKL 020600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
  through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
  hours on most days.

- A break from the heat and humidity will continue into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also beef up the valley fog based on observations and the
current satellite microphysics channel. This also prompted the
issuance of an SPS to address the low visibility threat, but kept
the northern counties out due to the higher dewpoint depression
there. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025

Forecast grids have been on track this evening; therefore, didn`t
make any wholesale changes aside from loading the latest obs and
updating the aviation grids. Evening text and radio products have
been updated to reflect the changes and grid have been saved and
sent to the web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025

Current satellite shows low level clouds blanketing the area with
cloud heights as low as 1,000 feet in SE Kentucky. This is due to
a trough axis moving out of the area, with the low located off to
the Northeast. Cloud heights are expected to gradually improve
through this afternoon, with a low end shower and storm chances in
southeast Kentucky. Dewpoints have dropped into the mid to upper
60s for today, a welcomed relief. Temperatures today are
forecasted to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area,
and currently they range from the upper 60s, where the clouds
remain the thickest, to the mid 70s, where skies have started to
clear to the north. As clouds continue to clear out off to the
southeast this afternoon and evening, temperatures will drop into
the low to mid 60s. River valley fog is expected to develop after
midnight, mainly along and south of the Kentucky 80/Hal Rogers
Parkway. More specifically, Southeast Kentucky where areas
received rainfall this morning could see better chances.
Elsewhere, model soundings show elevated winds just off the
surface for much of the area. This may play a mitigating factor in
fog development, and may actually favor more of a low stratus
deck instead.

Saturday, winds will remain fairly light out of the northeast, with
temperature generally in the upper 70s. The NBM appears to have gone
from having a warm bias during the heat this past week to
potentially having a cold bias in this setup. Looking at 850-mb
temperatures of 14-15C, surface temperatures have the potential to be
as warm as 81-83F. That said there is northerly flow, expected cloud
cover to name a few mitigating things. NBM 1-D viewer shows the box
and whiskers plots where the 25th and 75th percentile of the NBM
ranges from 79-82F and the deterministic NBM is suggesting a
temperature of 76F. I went ahead and took the the percentile of
all guidance for the high, which at least gets JKL up to 79 for a
high temperature. Some low end 80s are also possible across
Eastern Kentucky. Shower and thunderstorms will gradually increase
through the day out of the southeast, as a weak boundary is
modeled to push northwest through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2025

Guidance still has the period beginning with the region within an
area of broad upper level troughing extending from the Lower OH
Valley to Gulf in between an upper level ridge centered in the
western Atlantic and another upper level ridge centered in
northwest Mexico/the southwest Conus. At the surface, a frontal
zone is expected to extend into northern FL across the northern
Gulf to the Southern Plains and then north into parts of the
Central to Northern Plains while a ridge of sfc high pressure
should extend from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Upper MS
Valley. Ahead of the axis of the upper trough, a sfc inverted
trough should extend from the Gulf coast into the middle
TN/Cumberland Plateau vicinity and into parts of central to
eastern KY initially as well. Some return moisture is also progged
to work north and northwest into the Commonwealth at that point,
with 00Z LREF mean PW in the 1.1 to 1.5 inch range at that time.

From Sunday to Monday night, the region should remain east of
upper level troughing that becomes established a bit further west
through the MS Valley in between upper level ridging that builds
west from the Atlantic into the Southeast and eastern Gulf and
upper level ridging remaining centered over the southwest
Conus/northwest Mexico area that builds into sections of the
Plains. During that time, PW per the 00Z LREF mean is in the 1.2
to 1.5 inch range so enough moisture will be present for some
convection to begin next week. Guidance generally points toward
greater coverage on Sunday than Monday with a diurnal peak
anticipated each day. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees
below normal for Monday, before moderating at bit though still a
couple of degrees below normal for Monday. With the trough in
place and clouds at times even at night, as the previous
forecaster noted, no significant ridge/valley temperature
differences are anticipated at night.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, the axis of upper troughing between
ridging centered in the Atlantic and strengthening ridging in the
western Conus to Plains and centered in NM shifts to the Central
Great Lakes to OH and TN Valley to the Southeast. Sfc high
pressure is expected to remain centered to the northeast of
eastern KY at midweek while a warm front gradually shifts to near
the MS Valley to the Southeast extending from low pressure moving
across western to Central Canada in advance of an upper trough
that works into western Canada to the Pacific Northwest.
Convection with a diurnal peak should be a feature each day with
temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal.

Thursday and Friday, troughing is progged to remain from the
central to eastern Great Lakes to the OH valley and Southern
Appalachians to Southeast with the axis of the upper troughing
moving little. A sfc high pressure ridge should remain centered to
the northeast of the region while a frontal zone remains from the
southeast to the mid MS Valley and sags south through northern
sections of the Plains. As at the start of the week, a diurnal
peak in convection is anticipated each day. Current guidance
suggest temperatures moderating back to near normal during this
timeframe as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025

VFR TAFs are prevailing across most of the area with this TAF
issuance (aside from MVFR at KSJS) and will largely prevail
through the period. The stratus deck continues to slowly erode
over the area allowing river valley fog to develop during the
early morning hours for the southern 2/3rds of the area. Tempos
have been included in the southern TAFs for the fog potential. All
terminals will return to VFR by mid-morning but increasing PoP
chances will exist and a PROB30 for KSJS and KJKL may be needed
after 18Z. Winds will be light and variable through midday
before picking up from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF