357
FXUS63 KJKL 110713 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
213 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season will remain over the area
  through early this morning.

- A few slick or icy spots on secondary and untreated roads,
  bridges, and overpasses will linger until a couple of hours
  after sunrise when temperatures will rise above freezing.

- Temperatures moderate back to near normal levels by Wednesday,
  then rise to above normal levels by the end of the week and
  lasting at least through next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

Satellite and radar imagery as well as regional KY Mesonet and
KYTC cameras indicate that snow showers have ended across the
region. With this in mind, the Winter Weather Advisory for the 4
VA border counties has been cancelled. Also, hourly grids were
freshened up based on recent observations and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1125 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The snow has mostly ended for the bulk of the area as dry air
surged into the region clearing the clouds, as well. Still see
some activity possibly lingering over the far eastern counties
where impacts likely remain so not quite ready to cancel the
advisory there. The rest of the area has been cleared with an
ongoing SPS out for the potential of slick spots on area roads,
especially for bridges and overpasses. Otherwise, have updated the
forecast to fine tune PoPs and sky cover into dawn. Did also add
in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this
update. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, WSW, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 810 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow continuing in our eastern
counties with upslope floe helping to sustain the snow showers
there. Elsewhere, the activity is winding down northwest to
southeast with just some lingering flurries around. As such, we
allowed the WSW for those western counties to expire at 7 pm and
another tier will likely be able to expire on time at 10 pm EST.
With very cold air in place, though, expect there to be some
slick spots on area roads, especially those untreated and also
bridges and overpasses. An SPS has been issued for locations not
currently under a WSW to address this concern. Currently,
temperatures are running in the mid and upper 20s through the
area. Meanwhile, amid northwest winds around 10 mph with a few
higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as to tweak the PoPs and snow
showers through the night per the current radar returns and CAMs
guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, WSW, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

Late afternoon/early evening update is out with some modifications
to PoPs, mainly upwards, primarily through this evening, where
snow is occurring a more persistent/steady state. Also updated
hourly temperatures mainly utilizing the latest observations and
interpolating into the hourly gridded forecast.

Overall, there are no changes to the current thinking with the
expected gradual end of this winter weather event through this
evening. Main hazard concern currently is with untreated elevated
surfaces which are in many areas slick/icy as of late this
afternoon.

The air mass behind and surrounding this system is fairly dry, so
roads should mostly dry out overnight as skies clear. However,
temperatures well below freezing through late Tuesday morning will
mean any remaining wet spots that are left untreated will be slick
for the Tuesday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

A powerful vort max resides over southern and eastern Kentucky and
much of middle Tennessee. Not surprisingly, some of the more intense
snow showers resulting in quick snow accumulations on roads have
occurred across the southern parts of the forecast area, while with
most other areas the roads are staying just wet. A trailing weaker
vort max moving south-southeast from western Ohio through West
Virginia and eastern Kentucky will likely represent the end of any
measurable precipitation this evening, with flurries lingering in
upslope areas through the overnight. The air mass overall is fairly
dry, which should mean fairly decent evaporation rates for any
precipitation remaining on roads. Nevertheless, temperatures in the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight will allow for a few slick spots to
develop on untreated roads, especially for those areas who
over perform with today`s snow.

Northwesterly flow becomes more west-northwesterly with time through
the day Tuesday, with a mostly dry disturbance approaching the area
within the still active jet stream in the afternoon and then passing
across the area Tuesday night. This will promote a warm advection
regime with a warm frontal passage across the area Tuesday evening
into the overnight. A few sprinkles are possible in the afternoon
Tuesday ahead of this warm front, mainly across the north.

Temperatures will moderate significantly with a warm advection
regime replacing an arctic air mass currently in place over eastern
Kentucky. Highs rebound into the 40s Tuesday, and then fall only
back into the lower to mid 30s for most areas Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The models are in general agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to continue across the CONUS. Troughing will start out
entrenched from north central Canada through the western Atlantic.
Further west, ridging will be aligned from British Columbia through
the Four Corners region. Another deeper trough will be positioned
across the eastern Pacific. Through the end of the work week, the
western ridge axis will gradually move eastward, becoming positioned
near the Mississippi Valley by late Friday. Meanwhile, the
eastern Pacific trough will move in across the West, while
troughing only slowly moves away from the Eastern Seaboard. Model
agreement really breaks down this weekend and into early next week
regarding the evolution of the trough as it crosses the Rockies
and eventually the Plains, most likely in a split-flow fashion.

Eastern Kentucky will be under the influence of mainly increasing
500 mb heights through Friday, thanks to the upstream ridge moving
in. This will allow for moderating temperatures, with highs starting
out in the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday, and then lower
to middle 60s Friday. Lows will modify from the 30s to the 40s,
with more low to moderate (5-8 degrees) ridge/valley temperature
differences. The next small chance of precipitation (20%) will
arrive late Friday into Friday night, as a warm front lifts
northeast across the area. Better rain chances (40-50%) move in
late this weekend and into early next week, as the main trough
axis approaches the region. Again, there is lower confidence on
the details this far out, given the split energy and timing
differences. As such, will not stray from the blended guidance,
which allows for more of a prolonged period of precipitation
chances. Temperatures will average above normal (5-10 degrees)
this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, and lows in the
40s and 50s. Highs on Monday will retreat back to the mid and
upper 50s following a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

VFR conditions spread into the area from west to east during the
evening as the snow ended following dry air arriving on northwest
winds of around 10 kts. The good aviation conditions will
continue through the day, Tuesday, for most of the area with low
clouds and any linger snow holding well east of the TAF sites.
West to northwest winds will generally be from 5 to 10 kts
through the night. Winds on Tuesday will be southwesterly at
around 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF