131
FXUS63 KJKL 040550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues through today, with high temperatures
  running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

- Hazy skies linger from distant wildfire smoke aloft.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday and remain
  in the forecast through the upcoming weekend. Some strong storms
  are possible Fri to Sat along with the potential for heavy rains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1154 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent
observations. A few mid level clouds are passing overhead in some
locations generally as previously forecast. Otherwise, some valley
locations have cooled into the lower 60s, with upper 50s still on
track for those areas for overnight lows.

UPDATE Issued at 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025

An upper level ridge centered over the easter sections of the
Carolinas and extending into the Southern Appalachians and
eastern KY will remain in place tonight though it will become
centered east of the NC coast/Outer Banks by late tonight/tomorrow
morning while sfc high pressure will remain centered near to east
of the mid Atlantic coast with ridging extending west into the
Southern Appalachians and eastern KY. This scenario will result in
dry weather though and a moderate ridge/valley temperature split.
Overnight lows in the eastern valleys should be noticeably warmer
than this mornings readings by 10 to 15 degrees as sfc dewpoints
and in the column have increased over the last 12 to 24 hours.
Valley fog along the typical larger creeks, rivers, and lakes is
also expected to develop by shortly after midnight and linger into
the Wednesday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region continues to dominate the
weather across Eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Mostly clear skies,
aside from any lingering influence from Canadian wildfires, have
given way to some scattered cumulus, mainly in our southwest where
there`s been more moisture available. Temperatures have warmed
considerably since this morning, with many locations solidly in the
mid 80s. Combined with dewpoints into the 60s in some places, this
has made for a summer-like, almost muggy day.

Overall, this weather regime is expected to continue through tonight
and into tomorrow. An upper level ridge over the region and the
surface high centered to our east will continue to keep East
Kentucky dry with relatively clear skies through tonight and much of
Wednesday. Tonight, the largely clear and calm conditions will
allow for another night where the valleys cool faster and so,
deviated some from the NBM in those areas to account for this.
Lows range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tomorrow, high
temperatures will be the main story, with above average highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Heading forward, the upper level ridging
will be nudged out of the area by a broad trough pushing east. An
associated low at the surface will be traveling well to our north
roughly over Quebec, but the cold front it`s dragging will stretch
well to the south and west, through the Upper Midwest and
Mississippi Valley. As the front approaches late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, cloud cover will start to encroach from the
northwest. Rain chances are expected to hold off through the
overnight, but wet weather will eventually make a return. More
details will follow in the long-term discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025

The 03/12z model suite upper level analysis beginning Thursday
morning shows an ~591 high over the Bahamas with a ridge axis
stretching northward toward Cape Cod. A broad positively-tilted
trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves/disturbances, extends
southwest from an ~533 dam low over the Hudson Bay to off the
Southwest California Coast. The ridge will be breaking down as a
shortwave trough/low, originating from the Gulf of America, lifts
across the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, a weak surface
low will be situated over the Piedmont in the Carolinas. An ~1023
mb surface high pressure lingers between Bermuda and the Outer
Banks with a ridge axis extending west and southwest into the
Southern Appalachians. A nearly stationary cold front is draped
from the St. Lawrence Valley through the Eastern Great Lakes to
just north of the Lower Ohio River and then southwest across the
Ozarks and over the Southern Plains to a developing area of low
pressure over southwest Texas.

The upper level high/ridging to our east will break down on Thursday
as the trough pivots positively. The weak coastal low will
continue to drift north and east as the parent feature is absorbed
into the trough. PWATs will also climb across the eastern
Kentucky Coalfields as the low-level flow veers more westerly.
Lower-resolution guidance blend has trended toward slightly
higher PoPs by Thursday afternoon compared to yesterday`s forecast
package(ranging from 30-40% along the KY/VA border up to 60%
north of I-64). The longer range CAMs, NAMNEST and HRW-FV3 suggest
just some isolated to widely scattered deep convection, mainly
north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 corridor, where mid-level
capping is less notable. While the MLCAPE could exceed 1,500 J/kg
across much of the area, rather weak shear (EBWD of 10 to 20 kts)
relegates any activity that materializes to be of a more pulsy
nature (though mid-level dry air could certainly support
localized strong wind gusts originating from the more intense
downdrafts). Any deep convection will diminish with the loss of
heating Thursday evening. However, rain chance are likely to
increase again late Thursday night/early Friday morning on the
nose of a strengthening 850 mb jet oriented up the Ohio River
Valley. The greatest rain threat appears initially over the
Bluegrass near the frontal boundary. Those chances then increase
across the remainder of the area on Friday/Friday night as
surface low pressure rides northeast along the aforementioned
frontal zone, passing north of the Ohio River and then dragging a
cold front cross the forecast area Friday night into the first
half of Saturday. The potential for substantial cloud cover and
ongoing showers into the morning hours on Friday leaves overall
diurnal destabilization ahead of the cold front uncertain. In
scenarios where greater heating is realized, shear will be semi-
favorable for organized storm structures. Additionally, PWATs
climbing to near 1.8 inches (or the 90th percentile relative to
climatology) and relatively thin CAPE profiles favor heavy rain
rainfall rates with stronger cores. Once the front passes,
leftover showers and drizzle are likely to linger into Saturday
night. Looking ahead to the new week, blended guidance has trended
drier for Sunday over eastern Kentucky as the trough axis moves in
aloft. Renewed cyclogenesis does occur along the cold frontal
boundary well to our south over the Gulf Coast states. This could
keep substantial cloud cover over our area, but any rainfall
appears increasingly minimal. Should current model trends
continue, Sunday`s forecast could turn notably drier. Heading
into Monday and Tuesday, there is a general model consensus in an
potent northern stream 500H low/trough diving into the Great Lakes
and dropping a reinforcing cold front into the Ohio Valley with a
renewed shower/thunderstorm threat, though specifics remain fuzzy
at this early juncture.

In sensible terms, expect seasonably warm temperatures on
Thursday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s at most
locations. A few showers are possible, especially during the
afternoon and evening, and the strongest activity could produce
lightning and gusty winds. Rain chances range from 30 to 40
percent near Virginia to near 60 percent north of I-64. Once
diurnal convection diminishes, variable cloud cover is expected
Thursday night with temperatures falling back into the lower to
middle 60s. After a late evening lull, rain chances begin to
increase again toward sunrise. On Friday, showers and
thunderstorms gradually increase from northwest to southeast
through the day with chances peaking (80%+) Friday evening into
early Saturday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75 to
1.50 inches can expected, with isolated higher amounts possible.
Friday`s high temperatures are forecast to range from the lower to
middle 80s with lows ranging in the 60s. Looking ahead to the
weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances slowly diminish from
north-to-south on Saturday/Saturday night, leaving Sunday favored
to be the drier of the two weekend days. Temperatures will trend
cooler as well with highs expected in the upper 70s to near 80
while lows dip back into the mid 50s to near 60. Rain chances and
sky cover increase again Monday into Monday night before dropping
off for Tuesday. Forecast high temperatures warm mainly into the
lower 80s for most on Monday, then dip back into upper 70s for
many locations on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. After
a mostly clear night, some cumulus clouds may again develop
later today after about 15Z with bases generally in the 4 to 6
kft agl level if not higher - along with some mid or high level
clouds above those. Fog again develops along the typical rivers,
larger creeks, and lakes early this morning with some MVFR to IFR
reductions through 13Z, but TAF sites are not expected to be
impacted. Winds will be light and variable into the first part of
he day, before becoming south to southwest at between 4 and 8 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP/GREIF