Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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980 FXUS63 KJKL 240055 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Any remaining drizzle over far eastern Kentucky will taper off this evening. - Milder temperatures will return for Sunday into Monday before rain arrives with our next cold front on Monday and Monday night. - Another round of more significant rain is possible late in the week, centered around the Thanksgiving holiday. Rain may transition to a wintry mix or light snow Friday before ending. && .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024 The main forecast issue is the progress of clearing tonight. Clearing should continue to progress northeastward, but the question is how quickly. Models are not handling it well. Have updated the sky cover based on latest satellite obs and an examination of NAM BUFR soundings, but confidence is low. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 332 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024 Low clouds linger this afternoon across eastern Kentucky along with some patchy drizzle, primarily near and east of the US-23 corridor. Thermometers range in the lower to middle 40s at lower elevations and generally in the 30s above 2,000 feet. The surface analysis shows us on the northeastern fringe of high pressure situated over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. At 925 mb, weak CAA on west-northwest flow and upslope lifting of a moist air mass continue to reinforce the gray skies and patchy drizzle. As the surface high drifts east this evening and overnight, low- level flow will shift out of the southwest and begin pushing drier, warmer low-level flow back northward across the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields. This should cause a slow south-to-north clearing of the current cloud deck. However, where skies clear, the lingering low-level moisture and radiational cooling will just permit more fog and low stratus formation overnight. Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s in the north where the clouds remain through most/all of the night to the lower 30s in the south where at least partial clearing occurs. A few upper 20 degree readings cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered valleys near the Tennessee border. Once any fog/low stratus dissipates on Sunday, mild southwesterly flow and mostly sunny skies on the backside of the departing surface high will lead to a pleasant afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s northern foothills to the lower 60s in the broader valleys of the Cumberland and Kentucky rivers. Temperatures are anticipated to drop off quickly after sunset Sunday evening, especially in valleys; but a cold front approaching from the west will lead to increasing cloud cover and uptick in southwesterly breezes overnight. This should promote low temperatures being established early in the night before temperatures rise later in the night. Look for lows ranging from the mid 30s in eastern sheltered valleys to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 332 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024 An active pattern is still on tap across the country in the extended portion of the forecast. A strong trough aloft will be moving out to sea just offshore of northern New England. A second trough will be moving quickly across the northern CONUS and through the Great Lakes region to start off. Another large and powerful system will also be churning its way into the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on Monday. A couple of elongated ridges will be in place aloft, one over the Eastern Seaboard and the southeastern CONUS, with another similar ridge in place over the Rocky Mountains and Desert Southwest. Our first weather maker will be the Great Lakes/northern CONUS trough, which will race eastward into New England from Monday through Tuesday. The cold front extending southward from the upper low will bring widespread rain to eastern Kentucky late Monday through Monday night. The last few showers should exit our area by around 6 am Tuesday morning, as a cold front moves off to our east. High pressure will then settle over the region for a short while, and will bring dry and much cooler weather to eastern Kentucky for the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. Highs on both of those days will likely on crack the upper 40s and lower 50s around our area. The dry pattern will not last long, however, as the once West Coast trough comes barreling toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys late on Wednesday. This system`s associated surface reflection will move into our region as it takes shape over and exits the Great Plains. This low will strengthen on its way to the East Coast, and will bring widespread rainfall and blustery conditions to eastern Kentucky on Wednesday night and Thursday. This system could also bring widespread rainfall, and perhaps a bit of snow, to New England and the mid-Atlantic regions as it moves through. Eastern Kentucky could also see a rain/snow mix, or even periods of light snow, Thursday night through Friday night, as the upper low moves off to our east and colder air spills into the region behind it. Temperatures during the extended look to be below normal on average. The only exception looks to Monday, when we could see daytime maxes in the lower 60s around the area. After that, with a couple of systems ushering colder air into the region, daily highs only make it into the upper 40s and lower 50s through Thursday. After the second large trough passes through Friday and Saturday, we will see another major cool down. Highs heading into Thanksgiving weekend might only make it into the upper 30s to lower 40s across eastern Kentucky. The couple of days after Thanksgiving could end up feeling and looking quite winter-like across eastern Kentucky. Nightly lows will also be quite cool at times, and will drop into the 30s most nights, but we could see lows in the 20s around the area heading into Thanksgiving weekend. There are no significant weather hazards to speak of at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 755 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2024 Conditions were mainly VFR (due to ceilings) at the start of the period, but clearing and VFR conditions has made it into the forecast area near the TN border. The main forecast question is how quickly this clearing will progress north and northeast across he area tonight and Sunday. The latest forecast has the last of the MVFR ceilings breaking up in the northeast portion of the forecast area by around 19Z, but confidence in this timing and how the clearing occurs is low. Places which clear out tonight may have fog develop and last into Sunday morning, with the best chance at this being near and south of the Cumberland Pkwy/Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY State Rt. 80 corridor. At this time, it`s tentatively not been included in the KSME or KLOZ TAFs, but confidence is meager. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...HAL