741
FXUS63 KJKL 041834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.

- Through the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each
  night.

- Chances for rain return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

This Afternoon through Tonight:

Short-term guidance remains consistent, with high pressure
dominating to the east and extending into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Aloft, a 500mb ridge will remain in control. Expect some
high, thin cirrus clouds, especially in the southeast, and a few
pancake cumulus clouds through the afternoon. These clouds will
clear tonight as daytime heating diminishes, leading to ridge-to-
valley temperature splits, with lower 50s are expected in valleys
and mid- to upper 50s on ridges. Valley fog is possible again
overnight, though short-term guidance and forecast sounding data
show a weaker signal than last night. The COOP MOS guidance and
the 5th percentile of the NBM continue to capture these lower
valley temperatures well.

Sunday:

Surface high pressure will shift east off the coast of Virginia,
while upper-level ridging continues to influence the weather
across the Ohio Valley. Similar to today, guidance and forecast
soundings indicate the potential for shallow cumulus clouds to
form in the afternoon, sandwiched between dry air at the surface
and aloft. It will be another warm day with mostly sunny skies and
light surface winds. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s
for most locations. Based on ensemble and deterministic guidance,
some areas may be slightly warmer (a degree or two) than this
afternoon.

Sunday Night:

The afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate, but expect an
increase in high-level and perhaps mid-level clouds through the
night. Overnight lows will again show ridge/valley splits, with
temperatures in the lower to mid-50s in valleys and the upper 50s
to lower 60s on ridges. This temperature difference will be less
pronounced than on previous nights which is supported by the
guidance, as a possible return flow will help develop more cloud
cover. Valley fog remains possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

Once again the main changes to the extended forecast this morning
were to enhance the terrain based differences yielding a ridge to
valley split for temperatures Sunday night and late in the new
work week. The PoP chances are looking pretty good by mid week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Mid-level high aloft will remain just east of the area Sunday
through Monday, but the area will gradually come under the influence
of increasingly southwesterly flow aloft by Monday as a weather
system approaches.

Models differ in their interpretation of this approaching system for
Tuesday into Wednesday, with the ECMWF depicting a less amplified
and more progressive shortwave, while the GFS depicts a more
amplified and slightly less progressive shortwave. Either way,
sufficient moisture will exist for most if not all areas to see
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but the ECMWF solution
generally favors a bit lesser rainfall than the GFS solution.
Overall NBM QPF has trended lower, closer to a range of two-tenths
to one-half inch, with this forecast package.

The cold front associated with this passing system crosses the area
Wednesday, lowering temperatures for both highs and lows by about 8
to 10 degrees. However, there are significant discrepancies between
the GEFS, GEPS, and EC ensembles with regards to placement and
strength of shortwaves past Wednesday, making the forecast a little
more uncertain with regards to temperatures for the end of the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

Surface high pressure to the east and upper level ridging will
keep TAFs mostly VFR through the period. There are some pancake
cumulus this afternoon at around 4-5 kft, but these will dissipate
by this evening. There is another chance for valley fog tonight,
but the guidance is not showing much signal for this at the TAF
sites. Given that the signal is less for tonight will leave out
of the TAFs for now, but if any sites see affects it would be SME
and lOZ. The winds will remain light and variable at less than 5
knots for most.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ