827
FXUS63 KJKL 060010
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
710 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally well above normal temperatures will prevail through
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms are possible from this evening into Thursday.
  Some thunderstorms could produce hail, strong wind gusts, and
  locally heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding.

- An active weather pattern will continue into next week, with an
  increasing flood risk, and the potential for wintry
  precipitation at times for some locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Widespread showers with embedded thunder are spreading into
southeastern Kentucky this evening and should reach most
locations by 10 PM EST (a few places in far southeastern Kentucky
might miss out until deeper in the night). An unusually strong
temperature gradient remains across the area at update time
ranging from 32F at the Fleming-Mason Airport to 65F at the
Harlan and Middlesboro airports. The latest CAM runs continue to
show narrow swath(s) of rainfall in the 2-3+ inch range in under
6 hours where thunderstorms train overnight into Thursday morning
but spatial run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is still
lacking. Any rainfall amounts exceeding 2.75-3 inches in 6 hours
would easily exceed flash flood guidance in most locations;
fortunately, the modeled areal footprint of the heavier totals
remain relatively small. We will continue to monitor mesoscale/
model trends for clues as to where any heavier swath of rainfall
may set up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the
Caribbean and extended across much of the Gulf of Mexico and into
portions of the Atlantic. A shortwave trough was working across
parts of the OH and TN Valleys while another sharper shortwave
trough extends from the Dakotas to the vicinity of the Ozarks.
Further west, additional shortwaves were moving swiftly in
westerly flow downstream of an upper level low and broad troughing
over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a wavy frontal zone
extended from the Carolinas across the southern Appalachians to
portions of middle to eastern TN and then to the Southern Plains
to lee of the Rockies. Locally, where breaks in the clouds were
occurring near the TN and VA border, temperatures were in the low
to mid 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures ranged from the mid and upper
30s north to the 40s and 50s further south and southeast with the
exception of the areas receiving sunshine.

This evening and tonight, the initial shortwave trough will move
across the area early this evening with the more robust shortwave
trough working to the MS to Lower OH Valley late this evening and
then across parts of the Great Lakes to mid and Lower OH Valley
tonight. This should lead to an additional surface wave perhaps
developing along the boundary near the confluence of the OH and MS
Valleys which passes northwest of eastern KY and into eastern IN
by dawn on Thursday. This will lead the frontal zone lifting into
western and south central KY by late evening into the early part
of the overnight and then northeast across the area during the
remainder of the overnight. Per 12Z HREF, PW should climb above 1
inch peaking around 1.25 inches overnight. Limited instability
will reach into the region as the warm front lifts north, with
some surface based instability perhaps reaching to near the I 75
corridor and perhaps east along the KY and TN boundary. Shear near
the boundary will be favorable for some elevated rotating
cells/supercell formation which could result in enhanced rainfall
rates and gusty winds. Some hail likely under an inch or a stray
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Thunderstorms could train
across some areas per some high res model guidance with varying
locations, but generally south of I 64.

With some model runs such as the 12Z HRRR and 18Z having totals into
the 2 to 3 inch range in either eastern KY or the general vicinity
with HREF 24 hour QPF max in excess of 3 inches. Given the potential
for training of thunderstorms over areas that received the
heaviest rain last week, opted to hoist a Flood Watch mainly for a
flash flood threat though if this occurs it could evolve into
some stream or creek flooding from 10 PM EST this evening to 1 PM
EST on Thursday.

On Thursday, the second more robust shortwave trough will move
east of the area, with lingering westerly rather zonal flow from
the Rockies to the OH Valley region. Another subtle shortwave is
progged to follow moving across eastern KY late Thu into Thu
evening. The surface low should continue tracking north and
northeast of the area while the trailing cold front sags into
eastern KY during Thursday afternoon and then south of eastern KY
late Thu evening into Thu night. Chances for convection will
linger ahead of and near the boundary as it sags into the area and
as the next shortwave nears and passes. Some strong storms may
linger near dawn on Thursday, but should exit by mid morning.
However, showers and some thunderstorms will remain possible
until the front passes.

Temperatures will be coldest this evening and then should rise
tonight with the front lifting across eastern KY with upper 50s to
low 60s anticipated near dawn. Dewpoints should also rise into the
50s late tonight. Highs on Thursday will be milder areawide in the
60s averaging near 20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

The models are in good agreement regarding a persistent long
wave zonal flow pattern to dominate over the CONUS. Broad west
southwest flow will remain in place east of the Rockies this
weekend and into next week. At the surface, a baroclinic zone
will linger from the mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee valleys
and into portions of the Deep South. Bouts of traversing short
wave energy will gen up areas of surface low pressure that will
ride along the baroclinic zone, bringing rounds of rainfall, some
heavy at times, to the region. Eastern Kentucky, especially by
early next week, will be in this targeted area. While the details
are still lower in confidence, especially regarding rainfall
amounts, an increasing flood risk is inevitable next week.

Friday will start out dry, as high pressure temporarily builds in
from the north, and subtle 500 mb height rises take hold. The
next system will take aim at our area by late Friday night, as a
warm front returns from the southwest. Low pressure will pass by
to our north on Saturday, with a cold front moving southeast
through the area Saturday night. Overall, model guidance has
trended leaner with the QPF for this bout of rain, with hardly any
signal(less than 10%) exceeding an inch in 24 hours; however,
rainfall will keep soils saturated, and keep larger creeks and
rivers from dropping off as quick from the near term rainfall
event. Sunday will start out dry, and may linger longer into
Sunday night, depending on model guidance.

Early next week, stronger upper level support will threaten the
area with a more prolonged rainfall event, although, 24 hour
probabilities for receiving greater than 2 inches are only weakly
signaled at this point (generally 10% or less). Some of this
could be wintry in nature, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway,
depending on temperature profile, but this is low confidence
this far out. Wednesday will see decreasing precipitation chances,
as a cold front shifts more decisively southeast.

Temperatures will peak on Saturday, with highs in the low to
upper 60s, before retreating to the 40s and 50s, and then 30s and
40s by the end of the period, as colder air gradually bleeds into
the area from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED FEB 5 2025

Worsening conditions are developing from the northwest at TAF
issuance time due to incoming widespread showers associated with
an approaching warm front. Lightning detection systems show
sporadic lightning occurring in the activity upstream over
central Kentucky. This activity will spread southeast through most
of eastern Kentucky by around 3Z and continue through the night.
Some of the storms could produce isolated instances of hail and,
after ~5Z, might also contain strong wind gusts. As winds aloft
increase substantially while sfc winds remain on the light side,
LLWS will become a concern outside of any thunderstorms with the
warm front lifting through. The LLWS will diminish on Thursday
morning as a cold front drops in from the northwest and brings the
steadier rainfall to an end. Ceilings could drop to IFR or worse
at times late tonight into the morning hours on Thursday before
slowly improving again to mainly MVFR during the afternoon.
Another system is expected to brush southwestern Kentucky with
additional lighter rainfall late Thursday evening into Thursday
night.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Thursday
afternoon for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON