340
FXUS63 KJKL 011043
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
643 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions will persist through today.

- Greater coverage of precipitation than Monday is expected for
  today ahead of a cold front.

- Dry weather and somewhat lower humidity will arrive for mid week
  lasting into the start of the weekend.

- Daily high temperatures climb back above 90 degrees for most
  locations by Friday/Saturday and continue into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a touch up to the PoPs and Wx per the current CAMs
guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern over the area and
this is allowing the diurnal cycle to dominate with the peak in
convective activity now waning through the area. Currently
temperatures are running in the upper 70s to lower 80s, most
place. Meanwhile, amid variable winds around 5 mph, dewpoints are
generally in the low to mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while
taking down the near term PoPs per a quietening radar and warming
cloud tops. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and
SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

A progressive upper trough is located over the Midwest late today,
with an associated surface cold front from Lake Michigan southwest
to KS. A sultry air mass remains in place over our area ahead of
the front. Geopotential heights are falling as the trough
approaches, further enabling convective development with diurnal
heating today. Convection will last into the evening, but is
expected to decrease with loss of heating. However, the threat
will persist to some extent during the night as the system
approaches. The upper trough and front will both pass through the
region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Models are now more
strongly suggesting diurnal development on Tuesday for more of the
area, and lasting into Tuesday evening in our southeast counties.

The extent of clouds and lack of significant shear will limit the
potential for strong convection on Tuesday. However, precipitable
water is expected to be near 2", and with fairly weak
unidirectional shear, locally heavy rainfall may result from any
training of cells which occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025

The 30/12z model suite analysis beginning Wednesday morning shows
a lingering 500H trough axis over eastern Canada to along the
eastern side of the Southern Appalachians. An upper level ridge
extends from the western Gulf of America northwestward into in
the Northwest Territories. At the surface, an ~1018 mb high
pressure is situated over the Ozarks, spreading its influence
across the Commonwealth, while the departing cold front will be
east of Appalachian Mountains. Northwest low-level flow will be
ushering a slightly drier and cooler air mass into eastern
Kentucky.

The model guidance is in good agreement showing the upper level
trough gradually lifting northeast as the ridge expands east. By
Sunday, some weakness may begin to develop as the ridge`s
associated surface high scoots to the east side of the
Southern/Central Appalachians. Initially, a dry west northwest
flow will keep dew points tolerable through July 4th, though
temperatures will warm a few degrees each day. By Saturday though,
the low-level flow will become more southerly sending an
increasingly muggy air mass back across eastern Kentucky. (PWATs
climb back above 1.5 inches by Sunday and continuing to moisten
early next week.) That will spell the return of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast by the latter half of the holiday
weekend.

In sensible terms, look for a more dry and more comfortable day on
Wednesday with moderate humidity levels and high temperatures in the
middle 80s under abundant sunshine. The mostly sunny days continue
from Thursday right through Saturday while nighttime will see
clear to partly cloudy skies. Fog is likely each night, most
widespread Wednesday morning before gradually diminishing with
each day of drying. Temperatures will be on the rise through the
end of the week as well with daily highs back in the low to mid
90s by Saturday and Sunday. A small but slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms also returns to the forecast by Sunday with
higher chances for Monday. The Independence Day forecast is dry
with a cool start in the mid 60s followed by a hot and sunny
afternoon with highs of 89-94F. Temperatures return to the mid and
upper 60s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

Early morning showers and fog will move out/dissipate, followed
by scattered thunderstorms late this morning into early this
evening. Additional fog is then expected at all sites tonight into
Wednesday morning.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...Titus - WFO SGF