371
FXUS63 KJKL 261915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are in store for the
  weekend, before above normal readings make a comeback for much
  of the coming work week.

- There is a slight chance of patchy frost in our northern
  counties tonight, but a better chance for frost exists in the
  valleys late Sunday night into early Monday morning mainly north
  of the Mountain Parkway.

- More showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the area
  starting Tuesday. Some storms Tuesday through Thursday could
  strong to severe, and details on any potential severe
  thunderstorm threat will become clearer toward the beginning of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Cold front will exit southeastern Kentucky this evening with low
clouds gradually scattering out and becoming more limited with time
to the windward side of the mountains toward the Virginia border.
Surface high pressure and dry air advection may allow for lows late
tonight to reach the upper 30s in the typical cold spots in the
northeastern parts of the forecast area, with 40s elsewhere.

Northwesterly flow aloft continues through Sunday between an upper
ridge over the MS Valley and a deep upper trough exiting off the
Northeast U.S. coastline. Surface high pressure will remain centered
over the Lower Great Lakes. High temperatures will be slightly below
normal in the mid-60s north to lower-70s south, with just passing
high clouds.

Approaching upper ridging, light winds, and mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies will set the stage for another chilly night under good
radiational cooling conditions, especially in northeastern counties,
where frost will be possible. With dew points in the lower to mid
30s forecast, minimum temperatures may fall as low as the mid-30s.
Meanwhile, ridgetops may be as warm as the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Warm advection begins in earnest Monday ahead of a strengthening
system over the northern and central U.S., with temperatures
returning to above normal readings for highs and lows until the
passage of a cold front late in the week around Friday.

Dry conditions are expected Monday with the upper ridge axis still
west of the area despite low-level southwesterly flow increasing
near the surface. However, by Monday night into Tuesday Gulf
moisture will start to infiltrate eastern Kentucky bringing a more
humid air mass, and with that will come increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the daytime hours Tuesday, and
then continuing shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday.
Along with the increased moisture will come an increase in
instability and wind shear as the jet stream strengthens over the
area, so we will need to monitor for the potential for severe
weather at times by late Tuesday afternoon and lingering into
Tuesday night, and possibly again Thursday and Thursday night
with the approach of an energetic upper trough and associated
cold front.

Temperatures cool back toward seasonal normals to end the week
behind the passage of the cold front Friday and upper trough
bringing northwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2025

Cold front is passing, or will soon pass, across KJKL, KSJS, KSME,
and KLOZ through 20z. Widespread low-MVFR conditions are likely
behind the frontal passage for up to several hours, before clouds
begin to scatter out through this evening and the overnight.
Northwest to north winds of 10 kts or less are expected with and
shortly after frontal passage, but a few stronger gusts to
between 15 and 20 kts cannot be ruled out right as the front
passes. Winds will slacken to light and variable this evening into
the overnight tonight. Fog is expected to develop late tonight in
the more sheltered river valleys with partial clearing tonight as
high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC