279
FXUS63 KJKL 091409
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1009 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This cool and dry weather pattern will continue through the
  weekend and into early next week. Expect sunny days and clear
  nights with seasonable temperatures and early morning fog in the
  valleys.

- Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week.
  Temperatures in some of the most sheltered valleys could briefly
  fall into the mid-30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

River valley fog has lifted/dissipated, leaving mostly sunny to
sunny skies across the area. Forecast through the remainder of the
day remains on track. Expect seasonably cool high temperatures in
the mid 60s to around 70.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley with its
suppressive influence working down into Kentucky. This has led to
clear skies and decent radiational cooling for eastern parts of
the state. As a result, a small ridge to valley temperature
difference was noted through the night along with the development
of fog in the valleys - becoming locally dense. Currently,
temperatures range from around 50 degrees on the hills to the low
and mid 40s in the low, sheltered spots. Meanwhile, amid light and
variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 40s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
terrific agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky in an area of general ridging
at 500mb, though a weak trough does slip to the south of the JKL
CWA through the end of the work week keeping any energy too far
away for any impact locally. Toward Friday evening, another
stronger, but compact, shortwave trough will be diving east
southeast through the Great Lakes. The model spread remains
fairly small concerning these features - supporting using the NBM
as the starting point of the grids with minimal adjustments needed
- mainly just to include some terrain driven enhancement for the
hourly temperatures tonight.

Sensible weather features cool and dry conditions heading into the
weekend despite plenty of sunshine thanks to nearby high
pressure. These more seasonable conditions will make for a
pleasant end to the week, though valley fog can be anticipated at
night along with a modest ridge to valley temperature difference.
In fact, some of the coldest valley spots could see mid 30s for
temperatures for a brief time late tonight but frost is not
anticipated.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with some extra drying to the dewpoints and RH each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend, along with a
touch of extra drying each afternoon. PoPs are still looking
quite limited during this weekend and into the start of the new
work week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

An upper low over southern Georgia Friday morning will serve to
quickly develop a strong surface low off the Southeast coastline
Friday. This cyclone will then move up the East Coast and combine
with an upper low diving southeast across the Great Lakes region
into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. This cyclone then moves off the
Mid-Atlantic coast through the first half of next week, while
ridging builds north-northeastward through the Mississippi and Lower
Ohio Valleys.

Though differing in the exact details, the global ensemble solutions
generally keep precipitation out of the forecast area with weak or
northwesterly flow aloft through the period, with temperatures
slowly warming through the period from below normal to near normal
or slightly above normal by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at the 12Z
issuance despite the fog noted in the valleys on satellite. This
fog is expected to stay clear of all terminals allowing VFR
conditions to persist through the TAF period - with limited fog
outside of the valleys tonight, too. Winds will be light and
variable most of the time with only a brief uptick from the
northeast at 5 to 10 kts during this afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF