743
FXUS63 KJKL 221824
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
124 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and rain tapers off from northwest to southeast this
  morning.

- Another round of rain and mountain snow will move across parts
  of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, lingering longest over the
  Pine Mountain and Black Mountain areas.

- Another weather system will bring rain late Monday into early
  Tuesday.

- Another system is expected near or around the Thanksgiving
  holiday period which may bring more significant rainfall to the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Remaining snow tapered off this morning in southeast KY and the
WSW was cancelled a bit early. The next round of precip is visible
on radar and is heading south from OH into KY. With warmer
temperatures, much of this should fall as rain. Even where snow
does occur, outside of higher elevations the temperatures are
above freezing and it should not be much of an issue. Where
temperatures remain below freezing above 2000 or 2500 ft, there is
some question about precip type. Ice production aloft could be
lost and result in some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle
this afternoon or evening.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Snow continues to taper off as the best dynamic forcing aloft
quickly exits southeast over the next few hours. Have allowed the
Winter Weather Advisory for all but the Virginia border counties
of Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties to expire, but even here the
threat for accumulating snow is limited to the highest elevations.
Other changes were minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

An extremely energetic upper trough residing over the southern
Appalachians will depart eastern Kentucky to the east this morning,
with a weaker and much less amplified disturbance diving south on
the backside of a deep upper low moving slowly east to the Mid-
Atlantic coastline this afternoon into this evening. By late
tonight, the mid-level jet stream shifts to the north and east of
eastern Kentucky, which will allow for rising low-level
thicknesses and thus an overall rising temperature regime through
Saturday and beyond. Northwesterly surface flow becoming more
southwesterly Saturday will also help to usher warmer air into
eastern Kentucky.

As for sensible weather, snow will taper off through the early
morning hours from northwest to southeast, with precipitation
possibly ending as rain as warmer temperatures and dew points
continue to move in from the west as the precipitation is ending.
The HREF suggests partial clearing later this morning into early
afternoon, especially in the southwest, before the next shortwave
brings a rapid increase in rain and high-elevation snow from the
north late this afternoon into the evening, with precipitation
lingering longest over the northwestern slopes of the far eastern
counties along the Virginia border, and possibly lingering into
Saturday before completely ending.

Temperatures will be on an upward swing through the period, with
lower 40s for highs today trending to upper 40s to lower 50s
Saturday, with warmer conditions Saturday afternoon in the southwest
where clouds will begin to dissipate as upslope northwesterly flow
trends more southwesterly through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

By 12Z Sunday, a upper level low over Quebec temporarily stalls out,
while a ridge of high pressure occupies much of the East Coast,
Central Plains, including the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest, and Intermountain west stay active
with an offshore low off the WA/OR cost, as well as a few embedded
shortwaves east, over the Saskatchewan area.

As to how this plays out for eastern Kentucky, look for patchy areas
of fog early Sunday, otherwise dry weather under light southerly
winds. Highs are forecasted in the upper 50s, with a few spots
seeing 60. Lows are forecasted to dip into the upper 30s in the
valleys, and low to mid 40s along ridges. Late Sunday night a
shortwave out of the Intermountain West, will phase with the upper
level low from Saskatchewan as they both progress eastward. This
will likely arrive in the form of showers from a cold front Monday
afternoon, and continue through the morning Tuesday. Highs Monday
are forecasted in the low to mid 60s, with southerly winds becoming
westerly heading into Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper
30s to low 40s.  Tuesday, highs are expected to be cooler, in the
upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dropping into the upper 20s to low
30s.

As this system moves through the state late Monday and Tuesday,
the offshore low, out west, deepens and dips south off the
California coast. An atmospheric river will progress onshore
bringing rain to the Desert Southwest Tuesday. Model trends
suggest this trough picks up additional moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico as it approaches Kentucky Wednesday. Models are still
getting a handle on timing and placement, but there are indicators
it could be a decent rainmaker from Wednesday through Friday.
Highs will generally be in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Conditions at the start of the period ranged from mainly VFR near
and west of I-75, with mostly MVFR (due to ceilings) to the east.
An area of light precipitation was about to enter the forecast
area from the north.

The precip should overspread the eastern portion of the forecast
area this afternoon, mainly as rain. However, some wintery precip
is expected at higher elevations in southeast KY. Western portions
of the area which are currently VFR are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR, even without precip developing. The precip will largely
taper off this evening, with only some drizzle or very light rain
expected after about 03Z. Some incursions into IFR category are
expected at times in the precip this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL