116
FXUS63 KJKL 190945
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
545 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front sags into the Commonwealth today, and stalls out
  across southern Kentucky. This allows additional storms to
  potentially produce heavy rain in the Cumberland River Basin.

- A more significant cold front could produce multiple rounds of
  thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Those storms will be
  capable of producing damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 530 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Early this morning, an upper level trough extended from eastern
Canada into the Northeastern Conus to Mid Atlantic states while
an upper ridge was centered from portions of the Rockies to the
Northern Plains and Manitoba. This leaves eastern Ky in northwest
flow aloft between these two with a weak shortwave crossing
portions of the OH Valley at this time. PW is currently analyzed
across the area ranging from around 1.7 in the north and near the
WV border to 1.9 to 2.0 inches near the TN border and in the Lake
Cumberland vicinity. At the surface, a cold front extends into the
OH Valley from an area of low pressure in the Maritimes. South of
this boundary, temperatures and dewpoints were mainly in the 70s.
Other than a few sprinkles, convection has largely
dissipated/moved out of across eastern KY while some slow moving
showers and storms ere occurring over parts of central KY.

Today and tonight, the axis of the upper level trough will shift
further east with near neutral height tendencies at 500 mb
progged. Further upstream, the upper level trough/low over western
Canada is expected to reach Manitoba to the Dakotas as it moves
around upper level ridging centered in the Rockies and extending
across much of the western Conus. The surface cold front over the
oH Valley is expected to sag into eastern KY today and likely
stall near the TN and VA border vicinity as sfc high pressure
moves across the Great Lakes to mid Atlantic states. Near and
south of the boundary MLCAPE is progged to reach the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range per the RAP with effective shear only in the 10 to
20 KT range. Nevertheless, a diurnal uptick in convection is
probable during the afternoon and with the boundary nearly
parallel to the upper level flow, some training or areas of
repeated convection cannot be completely ruled out in the southern
third of the area. PW should also remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch
range in the southwest and WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO for
these areas. Convection should wane this evening, but with the
boundary in the vicinity, spotty or stray convection cannot be
completely ruled out near the VA and TN borders. Elsewhere,
tonight,assuming clearing of scattering of low and mid level
clouds, fog should develop and this could become dense in
valleys.

On Monday, downstream of an upper level ridge centered in the
Rockies/CO vicinity west northwest to northwest flow should remain
across the Lower OH Valley as an upper trough remains from eastern
Canada into the eastern Conus. The shortwave trough/upper low
should reach western sections of Ontario and the upper MS Valley
by evening. An associated sfc low meanwhile, should also reach
Ontario with the downstream boundary into the OH Valley initially
stalled starting to lift north and northeast as a warm front.
Following fog lifting and dissipating in the morning, with the
boundary in the area combined with peak heating, isolated
convection is possible across southern portions of the area,
especially nearer to the VA and TN borders.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

An upper level low and associated shortwave trough will trek into
the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley Monday
evening into Monday night. At the same time, a lingering boundary
will lift north as a warm front as the trough begins to approach.
Showers or storms may linger, mainly along the Big Sandy and
southern sections of the area. Low should be mild, in the upper
60s to near 70.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper level low and associates
shortwave trough will continue across the Great Lakes and sections
of the OH Valley. An associated cold front will sweep across the
central and eastern Great Lakes and also through the Ohio Valley.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to
low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to
2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures
in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and muggy conditions. A
30-45 kt LLJ combined with 2500-3500 MUCAPE, 0-3km SRH ranging
between 150-200 m2/s2, effective shear around or in excess of
40KT, and DCAPE 700-900 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible
mainly on Tuesday afternoon and evening. All hazards cannot be
ruled out with any supercells in the warm sector, but supercells
should be fleeting as forcing should result in one or more line
segments or potential bows in the OH Valley and Appalachian
region. As such the SPC has put areas near and north of the
Mountain Parkway corridor in a Day 3 Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5)
for severe weather with Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across the
remainder of the CWA, highlighting at least scattered damaging
wind potential. Some locations could receive multiple rounds of
storms with torrential downpours and isolated instances of high
water and flooding are also possible. Temperatures are expected to
cool into the upper 60s to low 70s late in the night.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area,
however, though in northwest flow, isolated to scattered storms
are possible across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts
of the Licking and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day, with temperatures cooler, in the upper
70s to low 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to
work in, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry under quasi-sonal flow,
the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest introducing shower and storms chances again for next
weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s
at night. Temperatures Friday and Saturday average out in the mid
80s, with temperatures cooling into the mid 60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

A few areas of convection lingered across parts of central and
eastern KY at issuance time with reduction mainly to MVFR.
However, a cold front slowly approaching from the north may bring
additional showers/thunderstorms during the first 6 hours of the
period. Forecast confidence is not very high on any of the TAF
sites being affected by SHRA or thunder so have generally covered
this potential with PROB30 groups. As the front nears, nearer to
12Z, MVFR to IFR reductions in low clouds are possible for a few
hours, before cloud bases lift with daytime heating. Around 16Z
and after, prevailing VFR returns for most locations. This should
be accompanied by a potential for renewed shower/thunderstorm
development from near KJKL to KSJS and points south. Reductions to
MVFR to IFR if not briefly lower are anticipated within this. By
00Z, the convection should wane, with some clearing late in the
period that could be conducive for fog formation in many locations
prior to 06Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK/JP
AVIATION...JP