709
FXUS63 KJKL 222036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
336 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and rain tapers off from northwest to southeast this
  morning.

- Another round of rain and mountain snow will move across parts
  of eastern Kentucky this afternoon, lingering longest over the
  Pine Mountain and Black Mountain areas.

- Another weather system will bring rain late Monday into early
  Tuesday.

- Another system is expected near or around the Thanksgiving
  holiday period which may bring more significant rainfall to the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Remaining snow tapered off this morning in southeast KY and the
WSW was cancelled a bit early. The next round of precip is visible
on radar and is heading south from OH into KY. With warmer
temperatures, much of this should fall as rain. Even where snow
does occur, outside of higher elevations the temperatures are
above freezing and it should not be much of an issue. Where
temperatures remain below freezing above 2000 or 2500 ft, there is
some question about precip type. Ice production aloft could be
lost and result in some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle
this afternoon or evening.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Snow continues to taper off as the best dynamic forcing aloft
quickly exits southeast over the next few hours. Have allowed the
Winter Weather Advisory for all but the Virginia border counties
of Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties to expire, but even here the
threat for accumulating snow is limited to the highest elevations.
Other changes were minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

An extremely energetic upper trough residing over the southern
Appalachians will depart eastern Kentucky to the east this morning,
with a weaker and much less amplified disturbance diving south on
the backside of a deep upper low moving slowly east to the Mid-
Atlantic coastline this afternoon into this evening. By late
tonight, the mid-level jet stream shifts to the north and east of
eastern Kentucky, which will allow for rising low-level
thicknesses and thus an overall rising temperature regime through
Saturday and beyond. Northwesterly surface flow becoming more
southwesterly Saturday will also help to usher warmer air into
eastern Kentucky.

As for sensible weather, snow will taper off through the early
morning hours from northwest to southeast, with precipitation
possibly ending as rain as warmer temperatures and dew points
continue to move in from the west as the precipitation is ending.
The HREF suggests partial clearing later this morning into early
afternoon, especially in the southwest, before the next shortwave
brings a rapid increase in rain and high-elevation snow from the
north late this afternoon into the evening, with precipitation
lingering longest over the northwestern slopes of the far eastern
counties along the Virginia border, and possibly lingering into
Saturday before completely ending.

Temperatures will be on an upward swing through the period, with
lower 40s for highs today trending to upper 40s to lower 50s
Saturday, with warmer conditions Saturday afternoon in the southwest
where clouds will begin to dissipate as upslope northwesterly flow
trends more southwesterly through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

The large scale flow pattern in the extended starts off with a
strong area of low pressure situated just off the northeast coast of
Maine. Clouds and precipitation from this system will affect a large
area including most of New England and far southeastern Canada.
Another large system will be sitting just of the coast of the
Pacific Northwest, and will be moving slowly onshore on Monday. This
system will bring repeated rounds of heavy low elevation rains and
higher elevations snows to Washington, Oregon, and northern
California as it moves toward and eventually onto land. In between,
strong high pressure will be in place across the central portion of
the country. This upper level ridge will be elongated from west to
east, and will cover regions from the Great Lakes through southern
New England, the mid-Atlantic, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and
most of the Great Plains. A surface ridge will be in place across
the southeastern CONUS and the Gulf of Mexico to begin the period.

With high pressure in place, we will see dry and steadily warming
weather for eastern Kentucky Sunday and Monday, as skies remain
mostly clear and southerly flow becomes well established. We will
see clouds on the increase during the day on Monday, as low pressure
moves our way from the west. In spite of the clouds, brisk southerly
winds will allow warm Gulf of Mexico air to continue pushing into
the region, leading the high temperatures that day in the lower 60s
around the area. With low pressure rapidly moving through, we could
see scattered rain showers moving into the I-64 corridor by early
Monday afternoon, and the I-75 corridor by mid-afternoon. The rain
will become widespread during the evening hours Monday, as a cold
front pushes through the region. Due to the speed of the incoming
system, the rain should be out of our area by early Tuesday morning,
as another ridge of high pressure moves in behind the trough. This
ridge of high pressure should persist over the area through most of
the day on Wednesday. After that, yet another area of low pressure
will be quickly moving into the region, as high pressure departs to
our east. Based on the latest long term model data, this second
system will move much more slowly as it across the eastern CONUS and
phases with a northern stream system that is forecast dive southeast
out of east central Canada. The second system also looks like it
will also produce quite a bit more rain than the early week system.

Temperatures for most of the period look to quite cool and well
below normal for this time of year, as much cooler air spills into
the region behind the first departing low pressure system. Daily
highs from Tuesday onward will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s,
with max values in the upper 30s and lower 40s possible on Friday.
That being said, some snow may mix with the rain on Friday due to
the cold air that will be moving in. As far as weather hazards go,
we aren`t expecting any at this point, but we will watch the end of
period low pressure system carefully to see if locally heavy rain
ever becomes a possibility. Nightly lows will start off in the upper
30s and lower 40s, but should bottom out in the upper 20s and lower
30s Tuesday night onward, as the second colder system moves through
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024

Conditions at the start of the period ranged from mainly VFR near
and west of I-75, with mostly MVFR (due to ceilings) to the east.
An area of light precipitation was about to enter the forecast
area from the north.

The precip should overspread the eastern portion of the forecast
area this afternoon, mainly as rain. However, some wintery precip
is expected at higher elevations in southeast KY. Western portions
of the area which are currently VFR are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR, even without precip developing. The precip will largely
taper off this evening, with only some drizzle or very light rain
expected after about 03Z. Some incursions into IFR category are
expected at times in the precip this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL