548
FXUS63 KJKL 060515
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
115 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front brings isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today, with the best chances shifting south of the
Mountain Parkway by late morning.

- Fair, comfortable, and dry conditions are expected for Labor Day,
except for rogue afternoon shower chance near Lake Cumberland.

- Warm, dry weather continues through Wednesday before a cold front
brings renewed shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1:15 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across
the Commonwealth on an otherwise warm and muggy night, with
thermometers ranging through the 70s. The 04Z surface analysis
shows a cold front extending from St. Louis, MO eastward along the
I-64 corridor into West Virginia and then southeastward off the
Carolina coast. Translating to the upper levels, troughing is
amplifying over the northeastern CONUS and adjacent portions of
the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic around an ~557 dam
low near/over Prince Edward Island. Meanwhile, a robust upper-
level ridge extends from Texas northward across the Plains into
the southern Canadian prairies.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to slowly work its way
southward through the early morning hours. CAMs suggest that at
least isolated to scattered weak convection will continue to
precede/ attend the front. There will be substantial CIN, but should
an updraft become particularly robust, the parameter space could
still support isolated strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Low-level
theta-e fields suggest that the front should slip south of the KY/TN
border by around mid-morning on Sunday. In post-frontal CAA upslope
flow, a layer of low-level moisture is likely to support a stratus
deck sagging southward through early morning, then only slowly
eroding from north to south through early afternoon. For most
locations, one would anticipate only light drizzle or light showers
under this cloud deck, but somewhat better lapse rates resulting in
modest instability over the Kentucky and Cumberland River basins
could support a few spotty heavier showers or even a thunderstorm or
two, especially closer to the KY/TN border.

With time, though, drier air will filter in on northerly flow,
dropping dew points solidly back into the 60s while skies trend
mostly clear by sunset. Eastern Kentucky will then remain on the
southern periphery of surface high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes for the rest of the short-term period (Sunday night and Labor
Day). This will result in a weak inverted lee trough residing over
the western foothills of the central Appalachians. So, while most
locations should be dry on Monday, a few places--especially closer
to better moisture lingering near the KY/TN line around Lake
Cumberland--could still see an isolated shower or perhaps even a
rogue rumble of thunder during the Labor Day afternoon.

In sensible weather terms, look for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms early this morning, gradually drifting south.
Low temperatures will be slight cooler, ranging from the mid 60s to
near 70F. A bit of an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity is
possible during the mid-morning to mid-afternoon timeframe on
Sunday, well south of the Mountain Parkway. Aside from those rain
chances, it will be mostly to partly cloudy and cooler than recent
days, with high temperatures ranging through the 80s. A refreshingly
cooler night follows for Sunday night, with lows in the upper 50s in
the coolest northern hollows to the mid 60s on the warmest ridges.
Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures ranging in the 80s return
for Labor Day. While a vast majority of places should stay
completely dry, a rogue afternoon shower or even a rumble of thunder
cannot be entirely ruled out, especially near Lake Cumberland.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1:15 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with the latest model
suite analysis showing lingering troughing over the northeastern
CONUS. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging is shifting east across the
Mississippi River ahead of a trough transiting from the Pacific
Northwest over the northern Rockies. Translating down to the
surface, high pressure remains situated over the Lower Great Lakes
and continues to dominate eastern Kentuckys weather. However,
farther upstream, an ~1000 mb surface low is projected over the
northern Plains while its associated cold front trails southwestward
over the Great Basin.

The upper-level ridging will continue to shift eastward through
midweek and gradually flatten as the upstream troughing traverses
the northern CONUS, such that by late in the week, quasi-zonal flow
with embedded shortwaves predominates over the Ohio Valley. At the
surface, the aforementioned low lifts northeast to near James Bay by
00Z Thursday, where it becomes vertically stacked and weakens as it
drifts into Quebec. However, there should be enough upper-level
energy to push the systems associated cold front near the Ohio
River. Shortwave ridging returns for Friday before another shortwave
trough approaches for the upcoming weekend. Model spread does
increase by the last days of the forecast period, leaving confidence
in the details rather low.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and seasonably hot
weather pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and nighttime lows range mostly through the 60s. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday with the arrival of the
cold front. Behind the front, slightly cooler conditions along with
diurnally modulated rain chances are then forecast heading into next
weekend. Look for high temperatures to retreat to the lower to
middle 80s by Friday and Saturday, while nighttime lows slip into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026

Thunderstorm coverage continues to decrease early this morning. The
cold front is sliding in from the north, with MVFR CIGs and some fog
developing behind it. The main story this TAF period is the MVFR
CIGs/VIS occurring early in the TAF with light northeasterly winds
increasing after 12Z. Flight categories should improve back to VFR
by Sunday afternoon, remaining VFR through the end of the TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JKL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...ILN