466
FXUS63 KJKL 251352
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
952 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend though there
  remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms later this
  afternoon and into the evening.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and
  thunderstorms return early next week.

- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe on
  Monday afternoon into the night depending on MCS development and
  evolution to the north of Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

This morning we are stuck in the more northwest flow pattern aloft
and this is sending weak waves through the upper level flow.
These weak waves have been kicking off showers and increased
cloud cover toward the Lake Cumberland and portions of the
Cumberland Valley region this morning. Overall opted to make some
mostly minor adjustments to PoPs and sky cover to better handle
the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also tweak the near term PoPs per the current radar and CAMs
guidance mainly adding sprinkles in the southwest parts of the
area. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a relatively weak area of high pressure
centered over southern Kentucky and controlling the weather over
the JKL forecast area this night. This is keeping the winds light
but not preventing a deck of mid and high level clouds from
working through the area along with some sprinkles or very light
showers for western portions of the Cumberland Valley. These
conditions have served to limit the valley fog development and
also mitigated much in the way of ridge to valley temperature
differences so far this night. Accordingly, most locations are
reporting low to mid 60s for temperatures with similar dewpoints.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are again in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict eastern Kentucky between two key 5h
features - a strengthening ridge over the west and broad
troughing throughout the northeast. Through the weekend, several
mid-level waves will drop through Kentucky in northwest flow that
speeds up with time. The first of these are passing through the
southwestern parts of the JKL CWA early this morning and
responsible for the light radar returns. Then another weak one
moves overhead later tonight while a third is progged to pass by
to the northeast by Sunday afternoon. At this point, none of
these appear to be particularly strong or well consolidated,
though the trend is well established as we end up on the eastern
fringe of the "ring of fire" from the expansive heat ridge to the
west. Give the model similarities, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the grids with only minor adjustments made.
These include PoP tweaks via adding in the consensus guidance for
convective timing and coverage from the latest CAM runs for today
and the first part of the evening. In addition, some minor
terrain distinctions were included in temperatures tonight along
with a touch of valley fog.

Sensible weather features warming conditions and more humidity
building into Sunday with just small chances of showers or a
thunderstorm around through the afternoon and early evening hours
of today. Sunday looks to be a lull in the convective chances
likely due to the subtle rising heights advecting from the west.
This will also serve to allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s
for much of the area during mid to late Sunday afternoon.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
more high resolution CAMs details into the PoPs and thunder
potential grids through this evening. Did see some small
opportunities to improve overnight temperatures with the
inclusion of terrain details.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended
forecast this morning was primarily to include some more terrain
distinctions into temperatures for Tuesday night, though some
uncertainty remains as to the anticipated sky cover. Strong 5h
ridging to the west still looks to support a glide path for mid-
level shortwaves into eastern Kentucky through the start of the
new work week. One in particular, on Monday evening and overnight,
is indicating a potential for severe weather given a fairly
strong wind field, plenty of instability lingering through sunset,
and model suggestions of MCS activity possibly reaching northeast
parts of the area that night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term forecast will be dominated by upper level ridging
centered over the Great Plains, with troughing along the East Coast.
Eastern Kentucky will find itself sandwiched between these features,
leading to an extensive period of northwesterly flow aloft. A series
of shortwaves will traverse this flow, providing a chance for
multiple rounds of showers and storms (potentially in the form of
MCS activity). However, confidence in the timing or intensity of
these impulses remains low, and impacts to the forecast area will
remain heavily dependent on the evolution of upstream convection,
increasing uncertainty.

On Sunday, increasingly northwesterly winds will work to pull in
better quality moisture from the Midwest, allowing dewpoints to
climb into the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area by
Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, mostly clear skies and increasing
influence of the upper level ridge aloft will allow temperatures to
rise into the mid 80s across the forecast area, allowing for
moderate instability to build, although in the absence of forcing to
drive convective initiation, rain chances will likely be relegated
to an isolated storm or two at most through the daytime hours, if
that. Some models are attempting to hint at isolated to perhaps
widely scattered storm chances in our southernmost counties on
Sunday afternoon, and the thermodynamic environment will certainly
be capable of supporting convection. That being said, many models
depict height rises at the same time, corresponding with a modest
eastward expansion of the ridge aloft, which would inhibit
convection. For now, NBM PoPs were retained, keeping rain chances
below 10% across the forecast area through the evening.

Forecast uncertainty increases overnight Sunday into Monday as
convective coverage increases in the Midwest, with some model
guidance suggesting MCS type activity may approach the forecast area
as soon as very early Monday morning. That being said, the most
favored outcome at this time is that skies remain relatively clear,
owing to surface high pressure lingering on the periphery of the
forecast area. For now, a modest ridge/valley temperature split was
introduced on Sunday night, in addition to typical valley fog, to
account for this more likely solution.

Monday and Tuesday appear to offer the most robust storm chances of
the period, with additional impulses moving through northwest flow
aloft and a continued signal for MCS activity somewhere in the Ohio
Valley. Although there is limited agreement in the timing or
intensity of these waves, machine learning guidance has generally
highlighted a broad area of severe potential from the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley early next week, largely driven by the potential for
damaging wind gusts associated with any convective complexes. This
risk remains highly uncertain, and the current SPC Day 4 and 5 15%
contours do not currently include our area (with Mondays risk area
north of Kentucky in the Great Lakes region and Tuesdays risk more
focused on the Mid Atlantic). That being said, the modeled
environment does seem to support the potential for MCS activity to
propagate southeast into the forecast area, and should diurnal
timing of these waves also be favorable, the parameter space will be
capable of supporting strong to severe storms. LREF mean surface
based CAPE is in the range of 1500-2000 J/kg on Monday and Tuesday
evening, and LREF mean 0-6 km shear is again in the neighborhood of
30-40 kts, enough to support severe weather. Depending on how many
rounds of showers and storms we receive, flash flooding could also
potentially be a concern, although this remains similarly uncertain;
the Weather Prediction Center has assigned a Marginal (Level 1/4)
Risk for Excessive Rainfall on both Monday and Tuesday to account
for this possibility. In short, there will be multiple chances for
rain early next week, and upstream convective evolution, in addition
to wave timing, will dictate impacts to the forecast area.

Following potential activity on Tuesday into early Wednesday, rain
chances will decrease again as moisture declines courtesy of
increasingly northerly to northeasterly winds. High temperatures
will generally rise into the upper 80s each day, with surface high
pressure building in the vicinity of OH/WV.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

There is a small potential for a few showers/thunderstorms mainly
near the I-75 corridor this afternoon and evening. Localized
valley fog could briefly affect a few locations early this
morning. Otherwise, unrestricted conditions are expected to
prevail across the area for most of the time as depicted in the
TAFs, with a Prob30 in the more southwest sites, generally after
02Z Sunday, for a potential of MVFR vis restrictions from passing
showers. There is also a possibility for some low CIGs after the
pcpn threat moves out, but this was left out of the forecast for
now. Winds will remain light and variable around 5 kts or less
through the period - away from any convection.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF