001
FXUS63 KJKL 021851
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
251 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
  through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
  hours on most days.

- This break from the heat and humidity will continue into the
  start of the new week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025

Current satellite reveals multiple cloud decks across the area, with
an inverted trough producing showers and storms over Tennessee and
West Virginia. These showers and storms are expected to develop
through this afternoon across an area mainly along ans south of the
Hal-Rogers/Kentucky-80 corridor. A moisture gradient remains across
Eastern Kentucky, with PWAT values around 1 inch in the northern
part of the area, with PWAT closer to 1.4-1.5 inches closer to the
KY/TN boarder. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast
through this afternoon and early evening, before gradually shifting
to the east/southeast by Sunday morning. Temperatures today will
remain refreshing, in the mid to upper 70s. Morning clouds lingered
through the afternoon yesterday and temperatures were 3-5 degrees
cooler than what was expected. Cloud cover has lingered again today,
however minor improvements in sky condition have been noted so far.
Current temperatures across the area range from the low to mid 70s.
The forecast should remain on track, though the NBM against other
guidance has been running cold the last few days. This may be
another case of "right for the wrong reasons".

Tonight, Valley fog is expected to develop again after midnight, and
last through the early morning, though low clouds and will mix into
the area from the south as showers and storms will increase in
coverage through the day Sunday. Areas to the southwest are more
favored with a better moisture return, with model PWAT from the HREF
Ensembles around 1.7 inches. Further north and east across NE KY and
the KY/WV boarder PWAT is closer to 1.0 inch. With the better
moisture return across the southwest, the WPC has places the area
under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through Sunday. Some
storms could produce high rain rates, and ponding of water in low-lying
or poor drainage areas. Winds will remain light and out of the
east/southeast. Temperatures look to remain in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025

Again the NBM forecast seemed reasonable through the extended
with only some minor adjustments made to specific spot
temperatures each day amid the overall trend of rising highs
during the week along with daily threats of showers and storms,
mainly highest in the PM.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Guidance still has the period beginning with the region within an
area of broad upper level troughing extending from the Lower OH
Valley to Gulf in between an upper level ridge centered in the
western Atlantic and another upper level ridge centered in
northwest Mexico/the southwest Conus. At the surface, a frontal
zone is expected to extend into northern FL across the northern
Gulf to the Southern Plains and then north into parts of the
Central to Northern Plains while a ridge of sfc high pressure
should extend from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and Upper MS
Valley. Ahead of the axis of the upper trough, a sfc inverted
trough should extend from the Gulf coast into the middle
TN/Cumberland Plateau vicinity and into parts of central to
eastern KY initially as well. Some return moisture is also progged
to work north and northwest into the Commonwealth at that point,
with 00Z LREF mean PW in the 1.1 to 1.5 inch range at that time.

From Sunday to Monday night, the region should remain east of
upper level troughing that becomes established a bit further west
through the MS Valley in between upper level ridging that builds
west from the Atlantic into the Southeast and eastern Gulf and
upper level ridging remaining centered over the southwest
Conus/northwest Mexico area that builds into sections of the
Plains. During that time, PW per the 00Z LREF mean is in the 1.2
to 1.5 inch range so enough moisture will be present for some
convection to begin next week. Guidance generally points toward
greater coverage on Sunday than Monday with a diurnal peak
anticipated each day. Temperatures will remain about 5 degrees
below normal for Monday, before moderating at bit though still a
couple of degrees below normal for Monday. With the trough in
place and clouds at times even at night, as the previous
forecaster noted, no significant ridge/valley temperature
differences are anticipated at night.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, the axis of upper troughing between
ridging centered in the Atlantic and strengthening ridging in the
western Conus to Plains and centered in NM shifts to the Central
Great Lakes to OH and TN Valley to the Southeast. Sfc high
pressure is expected to remain centered to the northeast of
eastern KY at midweek while a warm front gradually shifts to near
the MS Valley to the Southeast extending from low pressure moving
across western to Central Canada in advance of an upper trough
that works into western Canada to the Pacific Northwest.
Convection with a diurnal peak should be a feature each day with
temperatures remaining a few degrees below normal.

Thursday and Friday, troughing is progged to remain from the
central to eastern Great Lakes to the OH valley and Southern
Appalachians to Southeast with the axis of the upper troughing
moving little. A sfc high pressure ridge should remain centered to
the northeast of the region while a frontal zone remains from the
southeast to the mid MS Valley and sags south through northern
sections of the Plains. As at the start of the week, a diurnal
peak in convection is anticipated each day. Current guidance
suggest temperatures moderating back to near normal during this
timeframe as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025

Clouds have lingered through the morning with many ceilings
either in high end MVFR or VFR at present. PoP chances increase
through the afternoon with a 15-25% chance for showers and storms
near KLOZ, KSJS and KJKL. A PROB30 was not used as confidence was
to low, and best chances remaining south of the TAF sites. Again
late tonight areas of valley fog may affect some of the TAF sites.
Winds will be light and variable through midday before picking up
from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JP/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK