650
FXUS63 KJKL 080008 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
808 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will turn cooler for Wednesday as a brisk northerly breeze
  brings in drier air.

- Seasonably cool and dry conditions are expected to continue
  from Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation and radar
trends. This led to lowering hourly pops over the next few hours
as the main area of prefrontal convection associated with a
passing shortwave is exiting into VA. The threat for heavy rain is
also ending as the deeper moisture and better forcing will also be
pulling out of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

At 19z, the regional radar mosaic shows steady moderate rain
occurring across most locations north of the Mountain Parkway with
more intermittent rainfall further south. This rainfall is driven
by a very moist airmass (PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches) that is
feeding into the region on a 30 to 35 kt, 850 hPa jet, then
ascending isentropically over a warm frontal boundary and into the
favored right-entrance region of an 80+ kt, 300 mb jet streak.
That warm front extends from ~Middlesboro northwest to
Elizabethtown and into a weak elongated surface low over southern
Indiana and western Kentucky. A cold front trails south from the
low into Middle Tennessee. A second more potent cold front
stretches from the St. Lawrence Valley, across the Eastern Great
Lakes, through the Missouri Bootheel and down across Texas. Aloft,
there is a 500 hPa trough extending from the Hudson Bay region
down into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

The 300 hPa jet streak will gradually eject northeast through
early evening but may also intensify slightly. Thus, while
stratiform precipitation is currently diminishing over Central
Kentucky, the increased forcing should support an increase in the
low-level jet and maintain steadier light to moderate rainfall
over northeastern Kentucky until near sunset. South of the
Mountain Parkway, activity will remain more showery with the most
substantial activity occurring with the cold frontal passage
between 4-6 PM in the Lake Cumberland area to around midnight in
the far east. Where the steadier rains are most persistent
(primarily near and north of the Mountain Parkway), the concern
for excessive rainfall continues, potentially leading to urban and
small stream flooding. Additional rainfall amounts through the
evening could exceed 1 inch and locally approach 2 inches north of
the Parkway. Further south, additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inch are expected. Rainfall, steadier in the north and
showery in the south, will taper off with the passage of the cold
front.

Behind the first cold front, low stratus, drizzle, and fog are
expected overnight as low-level flow turns northerly and upslope.
The low-level moisture will linger into the morning hours on
Wednesday before gradually sinking southeast as a secondary cold
front slides across the area. Clearing skies and drier air will
follow that front on a brisk northerly breeze, gusting between 15
and 20 mph at times in the afternoon. As the upper-level trough
pulls away, chilly high pressure will build over the Great Lakes
on Thursday night. Some nocturnal radiational fog is probable in
the more sheltered valleys, but any widespread fog will be
mitigated by a subtle northerly gradient flow. Temperatures will
drop considerably over the next 36 hours. Tonights lows are
forecast to range from the mid-50s in the Bluegrass to the low 60s
southeast of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Looking ahead to Wednesday,
cool high temperatures are expected, peaking in the upper 60s to
low 70s, followed by lows in the low to mid 40s on Wednesday
night. A few of the coldest hollows could briefly dip into the
upper 30s by around dawn Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a small yet vigorous
disturbance over the Tennessee Valley within overall northwesterly
flow aloft between a strong ridge over the center of the country and
a deep trough exiting New England. This disturbance digs south to
the Southeast coastline and helps to develop a strong surface low
along the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, another upper low digs
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and combines
with the Southeast low to form a large complex low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Models are then in good overall agreement in
upper ridging building northeastward from the south-central CONUS
into the Ohio Valley to end the period Monday into Monday night.

Models continue to trend lower with Friday morning`s low
temperatures, especially in the most sheltered northeastern valleys,
where some isolated patchy areas of frost cannot be completely be
ruled out as temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Otherwise, cool and
dry conditions are expected to end this week, this weekend, and
early next week, though temperatures will be slowly trending upwards
after bottoming out behind the cold front that moves across the area
tonight. Any precipitation with the coastal low will remain east of
the area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

Showers remain across portions of the region at issuance time, but
those producing heavier rain have departed into WV. A range of
conditions was reported at issuance time with some locations IFR
or lower while others were VFR. This results in some uncertainty
in conditions to begin the period with rain showers or upslope
drizzle anticipated behind a cold front into the overnight hours.
Confidence is greater in a general trend of deterioration in
ceiling and visibility categories though the first 6 hours of the
period to widespread IFR or lower with some lingering MVFR
followed by widespread IFR or lower areawide 6Z to 12Z before
improvements gradually spreading from northwest to southeast
toward and than into VFR between 12Z and 21Z. During the first 12
to 15 hours, there should be several hours of near or below
airport mins observed at the TAF sites on upslope stratus and
drizzle behind the front. Initial south to southwest winds should
become west and then northwest through 09Z and then finally trend
to the north to northwest to end the period with speeds at
generally 10KT or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP