987
FXUS63 KJKL 032104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
404 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies clear tonight, leading to cold temperatures in the upper
  teens and 20s across the region.

- Expect a significant warming trend starting Monday, with many
  areas reaching the 60s by Tuesday afternoon.

- Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday before light rain
  showers arrive Tuesday night.

- More widespread and soaking rainfall is possible from Thursday
  through Saturday, though flood risks remain low for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 321 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026

Similar to yesterday, another sharp temperature gradient is noted
across eastern Kentucky at 2020z; temperatures range from 34F at
the Fleming-Mason Airport to 54F at Middlesboro. Satellite
imagery shows variable mid and high level cloud cover across the
area. The latest weather map shows a cold front with multiple
waves of low pressure stretching from off the Outer Banks
southwestward to along the Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure
resides from the eastern Canadian Prairies southeastward across
the Upper Midwest. Looking aloft, 500 hPa troughing persists over
the Eastern CONUS, with a notable disturbance passing over the
Central Gulf Coast. An upstream ridge axis extends from Northern
Mexico across the High Plains and beyond into Alberta and
Saskatchewan.

The upper level trough and the associated disturbance/surface lows
will pull away tonight, allowing the upper level ridging to shift
east. The high pressure will build southeastward the surface and
crest north of the Ohio River on Sunday, with weak anticyclonic
northerly flow feeding a dry and cool air mass across the Eastern
Kentucky Coalfields and adjacent areas. That surface high then
pulls away to the east Sunday night, causing the weak low-level
flow to veer back to the southwest. A disturbance riding down the
eastern side of the ridge will bring some increase in mid to upper
level moisture during the late evening and early overnight but
should have no notable impact.

In sensible weather terms, look for clearing skies this evening
and colder temperatures with lows ranging from the upper teens in
cooler hollows to the mid 20s on thermal belt ridgetops and in
broader southern valleys. Sunshine will be abundant on Sunday, and
temperatures will be seasonable, ranging from the low 40s in the
north to near 50F at Middlesboro. For Sunday night, in spite of a
period of thicker high clouds during the first part of the night,
anticipate a sharper ridge-valley temperature split as a light
southerly breeze holds ridgetop temperatures in the low/mid 30s,
while more sheltered valleys cool off into the lower/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026

The long-term period opens Monday morning with a 500 hPa ridge
axis over the Mississippi Valley while an arced upstream trough
axis extends from the Alaska/Yukon Arctic south and then
southwestward to off the California Coast. Some Pacific energy is
ejecting northeastward across the Great Basin into the downstream
ridge. At the surface, high pressure is noted along the Atlantic
Coast, with a mild southwesterly return low-level flow on the back
side of the high feeding across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, weak
cyclogenesis is occurring in the vicinity of the Oklahoma
Panhandle.

The main story on Monday and most of Tuesday will be the
increasingly mild air mass that will advect across eastern
Kentucky as the surface high departs (7-8C @ 850 hPa LREF mean at
18Z Tuesday). At the same time, that energy will cut into/flatten
the 500 hPa ridging into a more zonal flow through mid-week as the
weak surface low tracks from initially over the Oklahoma
Panhandle to over the Eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday
evening/night. The system will drag a trailing cold front into
our region Tuesday night and Wednesday, but moisture return will
be modest and forcing will be limited, so overall rainfall amounts
appear quite meager at this point (under a 30% chance for at
least 0.10 inch) and the front eventually stalls over or adjacent
to the JKL CWA. The resulting baroclinic zone will become the
favored corridor for the next storm system to track along later
in the week. While there are still questions with respect to
overall system depth and track, model guidance overall supports
the western 500 hPa trough pivoting east late in the week,
supporting one or more organized low pressure systems tracking
northeastward along or north of the Ohio River. Ahead of this
system, LREF mean PWATs surge back above the 90th percentile
relative to climatology, so a decent rainfall event is certainly
possible. Fortunately, streamflows and soil moisture levels are
generally near or below normal levels, and that should mitigate
overall hydro concerns even if a corridor of heavier rainfall
impacts portions of our CWA.

In sensible weather terms, anticipate much milder weather
throughout the upcoming week with high temperatures in the 60s for
most locations from Tuesday through Friday, sandwiched by highs
mainly in the 50s to around 60F on Monday and Saturday. Nighttime
lows should mainly be in the 40s and 50s, except on Monday night
when many of the valley locales could still dip into the 30s. Dry
weather is expected through Tuesday afternoon. Some light shower
activity is then in the forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday,
but it should be mainly a nuisance. Rounds of more widespread
soaking rainfall are possible from Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026

VFR conditions were noted at TAF issuance under variable mid to
high clouds. Those clouds will gradually diminish as high pressure
builds in behind a departing weak surface low. Winds will be
light to northerly around 5 kts or less through the TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON