680
FXUS63 KJKL 250856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
356 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will bring mild temperatures, but a series of cold
  frontswill then result in an overall downturn in temperatures
  for the rest of the week.

- The first cold front will bring rain later today through tonight.

- More rain is forecast Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
  Day,possibly mixing with or changing to snow Thursday night
  before exiting the area Friday morning.

- Another system may cross the area this weekend and bring the
  possibility of light snow between late Saturday afternoon and
  Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024

An active zonal pattern continues through the short-term (through
Tuesday afternoon), with good model agreement that an upper trough
will push a cold front across the region tonight, with surface high
pressure building in from the west Tuesday behind the front.

PoPs gradually increase from the west, peaking late this evening
into the early overnight, before steadily lowering to near zero by
sunrise Tuesday morning. The quick motion of the cold front within
the active westerly jet stream will limit WPC QPF to between 0.1"
and 0.25" across the area, with an approximately 25 to 45 percent
chance across the forecast area of QPF exceeding 0.25", with a 5 to
10 percent probability of exceeding 0.50".

Temperatures will become quite mild into the mid-60s today with
increasing warm advection ahead of the cold front, even despite
mostly cloudy conditions. Mild conditions continue into the evening
but cold advection behind the front and partial clearing will allow
for lows to reach the upper 30s to near 40s in the west toward dawn
Tuesday. Despite cold advection weakening through the day, the
arrival of a drier air mass and lowering low-level partial
thicknesses will result in highs only in the upper 40s north to
lower to mid 50s south Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024

Quiet weather can be expected Tuesday evening with some patchy
valley fog developing under partly cloudy skies and light winds.
Lows are forecasted in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds are expected
to increase heading into Wednesday as a shortwave dips southwest out
of North Dakota. While this is happening moisture will surge
northward from the Gulf Of Mexico, and a bigger, more defined trough
with Pacific moisture will encroach from the west. All of this will
culminate into showers developing around mid afternoon, continuing
through Thursday. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the mid to
upper 50s, with lower 50s across the north. Lows around 40.

This trough will phase with another wave north of the Great Lakes
to form a high amplitude trough. This bigger trough will bring
colder air to the region heading into Thursday evening. Highs are
forecasted in the mid to upper 40s for most, with lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s. High terrain areas of southeastern Kentucky
will likely see a mix of rain and snow overnight before the wintry
mix of rain and snow makes it to valley elevations early Friday
morning. Little to no accumulating snow is currently expected.

The front associated with this large trough will likely pass east of
the state by late morning Friday. However, another shortwave coming
out of British Columbia looks to usher in colder temperatures
through Sunday. A quick round of snow showers Saturday evening into
Sunday may result. Little to no snow accumulations are expected with
this system at this time. Highs Friday and Saturday are forecast
in the upper 30s to near 40, with mid to upper 30s Sunday, and
highs near freezing for Monday. Low temperatures are expected to
dip into the teens and low 20s Friday night, mid to lower 20s
Saturday night, and the teens Sunday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST MON NOV 25 2024

A low-VFR cloud deck is moving rapidly toward eastern Kentucky and
will cross the TAF sites between ~08z and ~10z. These clouds will
likely break up somewhat as they move across the area, but overall
a trend of lowering cig heights to MVFR are expected through the
day as a cold front approaches after ~03z Tuesday. Once more
widespread showers arrive just ahead of the cold front expect
conditions to deteriorate to low-MVFR or IFR conditions.

LLWS is also a possibility overnight and early Monday (mainly over
the western portion of the forecast area) as southwesterly low
level flow increases significantly just off the surface.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC