792
FXUS63 KJKL 071952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
352 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and drizzle will taper off from northwest to
  southeast through the remainder of the afternoon.

- A secondary cold front will usher in a colder air mass this
  evening and may bring a brief period of showers or sprinkles.

- Near-freezing and/or sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for
  most places tonight and Tuesday night.

- Temperatures return to near normal Thursday before unsettled
  weather and cooler conditions return to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT MON APR 7 2025

Low clouds with light rain and drizzle will continue to dissipate
from northwest to southeast through the remainder of the afternoon
with an upper-level trough passage. A cold front is still on track
to move quickly south-southeast across the region this evening,
ushering in a colder and drier air mass. As the cold front passes
this evening, winds will abruptly increase to around 10 kts from the
north or north-northwest, with gusts to around 20 kts with the cold
frontal passage for an hour or three. Low clouds with scattered rain
showers are also likely with the frontal passage.

As the drier air moves in behind the front, expect rapid clearing of
skies after midnight through around daybreak Tuesday. This will set
the stage for temperatures to fall into the mid-20s to lower 30s
across the area, with lower 30s favored in the southeast counties.
Will let the Freeze Warning remain as-is, with lowest confidence in
the southeast.

Light winds and clear skies are expected Tuesday with surface high
pressure building across the area. Highs are thus only expected to
reach the 40s during the daytime despite sunny to mostly sunny
skies.

Excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected Tuesday night
under light winds, setting the stage for widespread temperatures
in the 20s to around 30 degrees. Thus, a Freeze Watch has been
issued from late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning for the
entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT MON APR 7 2025

High pressure will be well in control across the Ohio Valley to
start off the period Wednesday. We will also find ourselves on the
backside of an exiting upper level trough, with NW flow starting to
relax throughout the day. With weakening upper level gradients
(lessoning winds), southerly winds at the surface, and abundant
sunshine, temperatures will rebound into the upper 50s and low/mid
60s.

This surface high pressure will be quickly shifting eastward,
however, as a surface low forms to our west and begins to move
towards the Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday night. As it nears, a
warm front will rise through the state first, leading to the chance
of precipitation during the first half of the overnight. The
associated cold front will then quickly follow late into the night
and into Thursday morning, with better chances for precipitation
during this time. The NAM really hones in more on the actual cold
front for precip chances in eastern Kentucky on Thursday. The
increased southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage will help
boost temps back into the 60s Thursday, despite the ongoing cloud
cover and precipitation. The axis of the associated upper level
trough is also expected to move across the Ohio Valley by Thursday
night, becoming stalled and deepening further during the day Friday.
This extra lift and energy from the trough axis may continue chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the state from late Thursday
all the way through Friday, especially in the far east closer to the
slowed surface low located across Virginia.

By Friday night into Saturday morning, the deep trough finally
begins to exit east. With a sharp pull of northerly flow into the
region along this trough, expect much cooler temperatures for both
Friday and Saturday, with highs generally in the 50s. The overnight
temps will be impacted as well. Both Saturday morning and Sunday
morning can expect temperatures just above or near freezing, which
may also promote some frost development - especially under the light
winds and clear skies that are currently forecast. High pressure
across the region at the start of the day Sunday will begin to shift
east during the afternoon and evening, bringing return southerly
flow. This, along with continued sunshine, will warm daytime temps
to the 60s on Sunday. Southerly flow will continue to take hold
ahead of the next system approaching, which should begin to affect
us just after the end of the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT MON APR 7 2025

IFR or worser conditions were occurring at TAF issuance time with
the exception of KSYM, where cigs had recently risen to MVFR
conditions. Expect continued gradual raising of cigs with clearing
occurring from northwest to southeast across the forecast area for
the next several hours. However, a cold front will move quickly
across the area from the north-northwest this evening and bring a
brief period of north to north-northwesterly wind gusts to around
20 kts and possibly a few showers and low clouds producing MVFR
conditions. Low-level moisture will begin to dry out and winds
weaken between 06z and 12z, with clear skies and VFR conditions
expected thereafter with light north-northwest at 5 kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119.

Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...CMC