146
FXUS63 KJKL 241648
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1248 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler air mass is now in place over the area, with below
  normal temperatures to linger through the first half of next
  week.

- There will be possibilities for showers or a few thunderstorms
  at times from Saturday to Friday.

- The potential for showers and storms to produce heavier rainfall
  returns for the Monday into Tuesday night time frame.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025

The POP forecast has been updated through Sunday based on recent
model runs. The latest guidance keeps precip associated with the
remnant shortwave of the system currently over AR to our south
today and tonight, and a dry forecast is now in place here for
that time frame.

UPDATE Issued at 1140 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and allowing some of the valleys to get a bit colder tonight.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and
keep skies mostly clear. Currently temperatures are running in the
upper 50s for valleys and low 60s elsewhere. Meanwhile, amid
west to northwest winds of around 5 mph, dewpoints are generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025

The latest surface analysis for the CONUS contains, shows surface
high pressure in solid control over the area. Other synoptic events
exist to the west of the area but they`ll have no impact on today`s
weather. Otherwise, quiet weather and cooler temperatures are in
store for today.

Through the remainder of the day, widespread cumulus clouds will
continue to develop but toward the evening and overnight, those
clouds will dissipate. Highs for today will climb into the mid to
upper-60s. With clouds dissipating and cooler northwesterly flow,
overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-40s for the valleys and
mid to upper-40s for the ridges.

Surface high pressure will persist into Saturday but an approaching
surface low is forecast to move off the Rockies into the the
southern Plains. When that occurs, a warm frontal boundary will lift
north to toward the CWA. When this occurs, some slight shower
chances (10-30%) will exist for areas along and south of the KY-
80/Hal Rogers Parkway beginning Saturday afternoon. Highs for
Saturday will be warmer due to the approach of the warm as high
highs will climb into the upper-60s to lower-70s. Increased cloud
cover overnight Saturday into Sunday will keep the southwestern
portion of the CWA a touch warmer with lows in the low-50s. Areas
not seeing clouds will fall into the low to mid-40s. For the
remainder of the forecast window, showers will continue to exist for
areas along and south of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway but through
the day Sunday that boundary will lift to the north bringing
increasing PoP.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level low centered
over the Maritimes with troughing south east of the eastern
seaboard while another upper level low/shortwave slowly moving
across the Great Lakes and the potential for another shortwave in
westerly flow between the Great Lakes to Northeast/Maritimes upper
troughing and upper level ridging from the Caribbean and Gulf
into the Southern to high Plains and downstream of a trough moving
across the southwest Conus/nearing the Four Corners region.
Further upstream upper ridging is expected to initially be in
place from portions of the eastern Pacific into CA toward the
interior northwest. At the surface, an upper level ridge is
expected to initially extend from near Hudson Bay to the western
Great Lakes to the Central Appalachians. Meanwhile a quasi
stationary frontal zone expected to extend into the southeast U.S.
coast in the southeast GA vicinity across the Gulf sates to the
Southern Plains to TX panhandle to intermountain west region. Low
pressure is expected to be organizing in the Southern Plains
vicinity at that point as well.

For Sunday to Tuesday night, multiple sfc waves are expected to
move along the boundary and into the southeast through Monday with
a low developing near the Red River along the TX/OK border later
Sunday night to Monday becoming the primary sfc low and tracking
to the mid MS to lower OH Valley by later Monday night to early
Tuesday and then weakening it into midweek as it works across the
OH Valley and Appalachians. The 12Z ECMWF operational run has the
low is later and stronger with the sfc wave near midweek and
tracks that low north of the Commonwealth into Wed night.

During this time, a shortwave trough is expected to approach the
area from the west southwest on Monday with the axis of ridging at
500 mb shifting east of eastern KY in advance of that late Monday
into Monday night. With that shortwave moving east of the area
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Chances for convection will
return to all of the area by Sunday and into Monday as moisture
begins to increase, especially for more southern locations as sfc
high pressure gradually departs to the northeast with nearly
neutral 500 mb height tendencies over eastern KY, with the ridge
of sfc high pressure is expected to remain from Ontario across the
Great Lakes to mid Atlantic into Monday. More widespread
convection is anticipated for Tuesday into Tuesday night with the
rather weak sfc system and a passing shortwave.

Another shortwave trough should subsequently follow at midweek
from the Central Conus and downwind from evolving upper level
trough over the Plains/Central Conus to the south and to the
southeast of an upper level low developing over the Dakotas to
upper MS Valley region. This upper level low should meander toward
the Great Lakes through Thursday and then may begin to merge with
another upper level low in eastern Canad or near the Hudson to
James Bay region near the end of the period. At that point the 500
mb trough axis could near eastern KY/OH Valley downstream of
building high pressure over the western Conus to High Plains.
Meanwhile, the consensus of guidance keeps a frontal zone south
of the Commonwealth across the Gulf Coast states from mid to late
week while a frontal zone may precede the 500 mb axis late in the
period. Thus, even the middle to end of next week appear to be
unsettled at least a times with less deep moisture across eastern
KY with the axis of 500 mb trough forecast to generally remain
west of eastern KY during that time. Diurnal heating should result
in a peak in chances for showers and any thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening from Wednesday to Friday.

Limited instability is expected for the Monday to Tuesday period
evening each afternoon and evening due to anticipated cloud cover
and precipitation leading to below normal forecast high
temperatures. 00Z LREF mean MUCAPE during that time is generally
no higher than 300 to 650 J/kg with bulks hear on the order of
30KT if that for both afternoons, with even lower mean SBCAPE and
MLCAPE values. PW does climb per the 00Z LREF means to the 1.3 to
1.6 or 1.7 level areawide, first in the southwest areas nearer to
the TN border and in the Cumberland basin area Monday afternoon to
early Monday evening and then area wide by later Monday evening
into Monday night and remains in that general range into Tuesday
night. This will be enough for some showers and storms to sustain
as the main sfc low traverses the OH Valley to Appalachians from
late Monday night into Tuesday night. A this time the probability
of strong to severe storms is decreasing, though model and NBM QPF
is fairly substantial over the extended Monday to Tuesday night
period in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. 00Z LREF means were on the
lower end of this range if not below, with the 90th percentile
upper end values in the 2.5 to 3 inch range. Some locally heavier
rain could occur in a shorter period if any storms were sustained
and trained across the area. A several day break in substantial
rain will preceded this timeframe and if some areas get heavier
rain on Monday or Monday night they could conditionally be primed
with more saturated soils for any heavier rain that falls during a
shorter period on Tuesday into Tuesday night. WPC has a marginal
ERO for the more southwestern locations for the Monday into Monday
night timeframe and areawide for Tuesday to Tuesday night.

QPF PW then is forecast to decrease later Tuesday night into
early Wednesday behind the main sfc low pressure system and the
associated shortwave trough, with generally not as deep moisture
is likely to persist to end the week with PW per the 00Z LREF mean
on the order of near 1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Won`t
rule out some showers developing eastward into the area by 18Z on
Sunday, but they are more likely to hold off until slightly later
in the afternoon for most places.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL