429
FXUS63 KJKL 042150
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be very warm and windy on Wednesday, with highs in the
  upper 60s to lower 70s and wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

- A soaking rain is expected Friday afternoon and Friday night.
  Gusty winds and a few thunderstorms are also possible.

- The coldest air of the season so far arrives to end the
  weekend. Temperatures will tumble on Sunday, with the first
  snowflakes of the season possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts widespread surface high pressure
covering much of the eastern CONUS. This pattern promotes
subsidence, leading to mostly clear skies and a warming trend in
surface temperatures. Local observations confirm this, showing
temperatures already climbing into the low to mid 60s. Some
sheltered areas, while warming slower, remain in the upper 50s.

Through the remainder of the day, surface high pressure will remain
entrenched across the eastern CONUS. However, aloft and to the west,
an upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop and slowly
approach the area. As surface cyclogenesis commences to the west, a
dry warm front is expected to lift northward through the area later
this evening through the overnight hours. This will facilitate
widespread WAA, resulting in mild overnight low temperatures.

Wednesday brings the approach of the aforementioned surface low-
pressure system. Afternoon model guidance is in solid agreement
regarding the low-pressure wave moving through the Great Lakes
region through Wednesday night. The local area will remain in the
warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Within the warm
sector, further warming temperatures are anticipated, with highs
forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. Concurrently with the
warming, increasing winds associated with a strengthening LLJ will
advance into the region, resulting in increased southwesterly
surface winds. Forecast soundings, analyzing momentum transfer, as
well as HREF probabilities and model cross-sections, consistently
suggest that afternoon wind gusts will exceed 25 mph through the
afternoon before the dry cold frontal passage Wednesday evening.
Once the front traverses the area, surface high pressure will
return, but the associated upper-level northwesterly flow will favor
CAA through Wednesday night. The combination of clear skies,
radiational cooling, and CAA will allow temperatures to fall into
the mid to upper 30s.

The immediate forecast is dominated by a persistent surface high and
upper-level ridging, driving a significant warming trend with mild
temperatures and clear conditions. This pattern will be interrupted
by the late-day and overnight passage of a dry warm front,
maintaining mild overnight lows through WAA. The main action occurs
Wednesday as the area remains in the warm sector of an approaching
cyclone, leading to the warmest temperatures (upper 60s to low 70s)
and increasing southwesterly winds with gusts potentially exceeding
25 mph due to LLJ momentum. A swift dry cold front passage Wednesday
evening will end the warm spell, ushering in CAA and radiational
cooling that will drop overnight temperatures sharply into the mid
to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025

The period is expected to begin with a rather zonal flavor with a
500 mb trough axis moving across the Maritimes and further off
the Mid Atlantic coast, some shortwave ridging in parts of the
Central Conus/Central and Northern Plains, while further west
multiple shortwaves are progged to be moving across the western
Conus toward the High Plains. One shortwave in particular should
extend from Alberta into Saskatchewan to to the western Dakotas.
At the surface, a ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to be
centered north of the Lower OH Valley and extending across much
of the Great Lakes to OH valley to Southern Appalachians to
Carolinas and TN Valley as well. The frontal zone that will have
crossed the region during the short term period is expected to
extend from the Atlantic into South Carolina weest across the
Gulf coast states to AR to OK and then into TX.

Thursday and Thursday night, shortwave ridging is expected to
progress to the MS Valley and then into the Lower OH Valley to
Southeast, before shifting toward the eastern seaboard on Thursday
night. By Thursday night, the pattern should also begin to amplify
as shortwaves begin to phase with an upper low in the Hudson Bay
vicinity to carve out a trough in the Central Conus while the
axis of the shortwave ridging should progress to the Southwest
COnus to MT to Alberta downstream of additional shortwaves moving
onto the west coast of the Conus. At the surface, low pressure
should organize over the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley and then
trek to the Lake Superior vicinity Thursday into Thursday night.
The warm front associated with this system should lift into the
central Great Lakes and OH Valley to Southern Plains while the
trailing wavy cold front should extend into the mid MS Valley to
Southern Plains. Further upstream, one of the shortwaves moving
into the western Conus and western Canada is expected to move into
the Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies. Locally, the main
notable weather for Thursday will be colder highs as compared to
Wednesday along with lighter winds.

Friday to Saturday night, the upper low initially over Hudson Bay
is progged to move to the james Bay vicinity while the pattern
over the Conus should continue to amplify. The initial 500 mb
shortwave should move into the Great Lakes to mid MS and Lower OH
Valley on Friday with its axis moving east of eastern KY late
Friday night. This will leave a somewhat broad trough into the
central and eastern Conus south of the upper low in the Hudson
Bay vicinity. A notable shortwave upstream that will have moved
to Alberta to the Northern Rockies area late Thursday night should
reach the Dakotas/Northern Plains by late Friday night to early
Saturday and then to the mid to Lower MS Valley through late
Saturday evening before reaching the eastern Great Lakes to Lower
OH Valley through late Saturday night. As this occurs and
additional shortwaves rotate into the upper trough and ridging
builds into the western Conus the 500 mb pattern amplifies as
mentioned earlier. The sfc low initially over the Lake Superior
vicinity should reach the St Lawrence Valley on Friday night and
then into the Maritimes into the day on Saturday. The trailing
cold front should cross the Commonwealth alter Friday through
Friday night. High pressure/weak shortwave upper ridging should
dominate for Saturday to Saturday evening before the next
shortwave nears the Lower OH Valley with the sfc low tracking to
the Lake Erie vicinity late Saturday night while its trailing cold
front also nears eastern KY.

Moisture will be advected into the region ahead of the trough and
cold front and measurable rainfall from showers is nearly
certain. Limited instability will also be present for the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. A gusty line of showers
along or in advance of the front is possible and some of the AI
Convective guidance suggests small probabilities of strong to
damaging wind gusts though these are generally higher from the
western portion of the CWA west. There is some uncertainty with
QPF as some ECMWF runs are a bit drier in the southeastern
portions of the CWA. A wetting rain is likely across the area
(60-90% chance for at least 0.25 inch per the NBM). Some
locations, mainly in the west and northwest may pick up more of a
soaking rain with QPF of 0.50 to 1 inch or more currently
forecast. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front on Friday
with temperatures reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Chances for
showers should increase through the day, peaking in the late
afternoon and evening, at which time chances for thunder should
also peak. Behind this first cold front, temperatures should
return to nearer to normal for highs on Saturday.

Sunday to Tuesday, the weekend should end with an eastern Conus
trough and western Conus ridge with the axis of this trough
shifting to and off the eastern seaboard through Tuesday as the
pattern trends to less amplified to end the period. The shortwave
previously mentioned should cross eastern KY during the day on
Sunday with additional shortwaves in west to northwest flow
crossing the OH Valley through Sunday night and Monday. Cold air
advection should occur through the day on Sunday and falling
temperatures could occur by the midday to afternoon hours. 850 mb
temperatures should fall below 0C during the day on Sunday. Some
limited moisture may accompany these shortwaves to end the weekend
and steeping lapse rates may support some showers while the low
level flow eventually becomes more upslope. The end of the weekend
into Monday should be unsettled with showers possible at times,
generally peaking Sunday morning to midday and possibly again
Sunday evening into Sunday night when the next shortwave may
cross the area. By late Sunday evening into Sunday night the
column would likely be able to support some snow mixing in if
scattered showers do in fact occur, though any changeover to all
snow should occur at elevations above 2500 feet first. Any snow
that falls would be the first flakes of the season and only of the
novelty variety.

With the cold airmass present on Monday, 850 mb temperatures of at
least -6C to -8C if not colder and anticipated cloud cover may
result in temperatures struggling to reach the 40 degree mark in
many locations for highs on Monday. Highs around that magnitude
would be on the order of 20 degrees below normal.

Monday night through the end of the period, a trend of rising 500
mb heights is expected with sfc high pressure building from the
Plains/Central Conus to the MS Valley as well as OH Valley and
Appalachians. Skies should clear and with winds also decreasing,
Monday night should be the coldest night so far this fall. The
typical cold spots should make a run toward the 20 degree mark if
19 or so which would be near the 10th percentile of the NBM.
Temperatures begin to moderate a bit for Tuesday, but still
should be on the order of 15 degrees below normal for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025

High pressure will keep VFR TAFs over the area through the TAF
window. However, overnight LLWS is forecast to develop as an
upper-level wave dives southeast towards the area. LLWS is
forecast to develop the earliest at KSYM around 06Z with the
remaining sites having it a couple hours later. Once surface winds
increase and turbulent mixing occurs, LLWS will be negated.
Sustained surface winds out of the southwest around 15 knots with
gusts from 20 to 25 knots can be expected through the end of the
TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST