654
FXUS63 KJKL 051727
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
127 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms can be expected today. A few strong to
  severe storms will be possible with damaging wind and torrential
  downpours the main threats.

- Heat indices will again reach the 100 to 105 degree range in
  some locations this afternoon, mainly near Lake Cumberland and
  possibly a few other locations near the TN border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1225 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026

Clear skies and light winds will lead to some river valley fog
through daybreak. Meanwhile, a convective complex developing
along the leading edge of a low level jet across northern
Illinois/Indiana and lower Michigan is forecast to drop southeast
through daybreak and if this is able to hold together, it will
likely push into east central Kentucky through mid morning. Will
go ahead and include some chance pops across northern portions of
the area to account for this possibility. This will be
accompanied by some fairly strong mid level winds so if it does
maintain itself, a few strong to severe storms will be possible
later this morning, with damaging wind the main threat.

The remnants of the pcpn this morning could affect temperatures
early, but they should eventually recover enough to reach
afternoon highs in the lower 90s. This will combine with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to produce some afternoon heat
indices possibly as high as the 100 to 105 degree range later this
afternoon. This will also allow for us to destabilize through the
day with afternoon MLCapes in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. This
should lead to scattered thunderstorm development later this
afternoon, possibly lingering into tonight. Mid level flow is not
as strong this afternoon/evening, but with deep layer shear
still in the 20-30 knot range, a few strong to severe storms will
be possible again later this afternoon into early evening.

While the storms should be somewhat progressive given the mid
level flow, PWs in excess of 2 inches today will result in the
potential for some torrential downpours with the stronger storms.

Drier and cooler air will begin to filter down into the region
later tonight and through the day on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will
be in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026

Mid and upper level ridging will build into the lower Mississippi
and Ohio Valley region through early to mid next week. This will
lead to mainly dry conditions with daytime highs mostly in the mid
to upper 80s through much of next week. A mid level short wave
riding over the top of the ridge will drop down into the central
Appalachians Thursday into Friday, leading to the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026

VFR conditions are currently observed as satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies at the terminals and radar indicates the
morning convection well southeast of the sites. Some additional
scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon/evening, generally between 20Z-03Z, however continued
the PROB30 groups as coverage remains low confidence. Later
tonight after ~06Z, MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will
drop in from the north as a frontal passage makes its way south
through the area. Flight categories should improve back to VFR by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS