866
FXUS63 KJKL 221140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front brings an area-wide potential for showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in
  southeast Kentucky.

- Noticeably colder and less humid weather will arrive by Monday
  and last through at least Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025

No major changes with this update aside from loading in the
latest surface obs and working those trends through the mid-
morning. Also, made sure that the visibility grids matched fog
trends this morning. Early morning text and radio products have
been updated and grids have been sent to webfarms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 417 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025

A surface high-pressure system, centered over the western Great
Lakes, extends its influence across much of the eastern CONUS. To
the south of the area, a wavering stationary boundary, the remnants
of Wednesdays front, is oriented from eastern Texas eastward across
the South and northeastward into the center of Hurricane Erin.
Locally, the area is dominated by this surface high-pressure system,
which is bringing mostly clear and dry weather overnight. Areas of
locally dense river valley fog are starting to show up on night fog
channels and will persist through the early morning before burning
off with sunrise.

Today, surface high-pressure will bring warmer temperatures, with
highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Along with the warmer
temperatures, afternoon showers and storms are forecast to develop,
though early morning CAMs and model guidance indicate the best
locations for these storms will be in southeastern Kentucky. Once
the sun sets, any showers or storms will dissipate, leading to
clearing skies and the potential for valley fog.

Saturday will see continued surface high pressure, but an upper-
level trough will begin to eject from western Canada toward the
northern Great Lakes. This will place the area in the warm sector
ahead of the approaching cold front, leading to highs in the upper
80s and low 90s. Increasing chances for showers and storms are
expected Saturday afternoon and evening, and these will continue
through the overnight hours into Sunday. The slow-moving front will
keep precipitation chances in the forecast through the end of the
period.

The period will be highlighted by scattered afternoon showers and
storms today, with increasing chances for Saturday afternoon due to
the approaching cold front. Temperatures will remain above average,
with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 417 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025

The forecast period will begin with a slow-moving cold front that
will track through the forecast area, keeping precipitation chances
in the forecast through Sunday before frontal passage occurs late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. The latest model guidance
shows that QPF totals have continued to decrease and are now meager,
ranging from a trace in the Bluegrass region to upwards of 1.00 inch
in the southeast.

Once the front exits the area early Monday morning, surface high
pressure will build into the region. Upper-level west-to-
northwesterly flow will lead to CAA behind the front, which will
usher in a more fall-like weather pattern. Starting Monday and
continuing through Thursday, dry weather is expected. The most
significant change will be a temperature drop of 10 to 15 degrees
below normal. Highs on Monday will only climb into the low to mid-
70s. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, and some of
the coldest valleys could even see temperatures in the upper 40s on
a clear night. Temperatures will gradually begin to return to warmer
values by Wednesday but will remain below normal. A weak shortwave
perturbation will track through the main trough, bringing increasing
chances for showers and storms beginning late Thursday into early
Friday.

The period will be highlighted by a slow-moving cold front over the
weekend, followed by an early introduction to more fall-like
weather. A second cold front will then bring renewed precipitation
chances toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025

Terminals are presently a combination of MVFR and IFR with this
issuance as both low CIGS and valley fog is widespread across the
area. Fog is forecast to burn off within the hour or so but the
low stratus deck will take a little longer to erode. Current
guidance has terminals improving to VFR around 16Z to 17Z. Lastly,
winds will be light and variable.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST