283
FXUS63 KJKL 140930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
430 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Saturday, with
  highs near 70 degrees.

- Gusty southwesterly winds on Saturday could impact outdoor activities
  and blow around any outdoor decorations/tents.

- Measurable rain chances re-enter the forecast ahead of a cold
  front on Saturday night, with little to no chance of thunder.

- There remains a great deal of forecast uncertainty early next
  week, but the pattern is expected to stay active.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure just off to the east of
Kentucky this night. This has kept skies clear for much of the
area, but a large batch of mid level clouds is affecting
northeast Kentucky on account of a passing weak mid-level wave,
and a developing warm front to the north. These clouds are
hindering the radiational cooling in these parts, for a time. As
such, temperatures vary from the low and mid 40s on the ridges
under the clouds to the upper 20s in the southern valleys where
skies have stayed clear. Meanwhile, amid light southerly winds,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s - with some
low 20s noted on the eastern ridges.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict fairly fast northwest mid level flow
over eastern Kentucky today due mainly to the state being between
a departing deep trough to the northeast and strong ridging
burgeoning over Texas from the south. The weak wave passes by dawn
and another does not approach until late tonight into Saturday.
This is prompted by the next upstream trough dropping south out
of south central Canada - tightening and speeding up the mid-level
northwest flow over eastern Kentucky. The small spread among the
models bolstered using the NBM as the starting point of the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to include
some greater terrain distinction for temperatures tonight with
small ridge to valley differences expected.

Sensible weather features times of mainly mid and high level
clouds marring the otherwise sunny skies today even as
southwesterly winds bring in warmer temperatures and more
moisture. Accordingly, highs today will be a couple of categories
higher than those of Thursday. There should be enough breaks in
the clouds tonight for more terrain differences into Saturday
morning ahead of increasing south winds after sunrise. For
Saturday, an approaching cold front from the north will make for a
breezy day with wind gusts to 25 mph possible - in the west -
from the southwest winds into the afternoon. While some light
showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out on Saturday for northeast
parts of the JKL CWA, most places will stay dry. A better chance
of showers arrive with that front later in the night.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in more details for the temperatures tonight to include
more ridge to valley distinctions. Did also incorporate some of
the latest consensus CAMs guidance into the PoPs on Saturday -
but still kept them sub 14 percent through 00Z Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights later in the next week. Also, still kept
thunder out of the forecast, though there is a small potential for
it in the northeast Saturday night and again in the southwest
Monday night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

While confidence is high that the beginning of the long term
forecast period will be marked by much warmer than normal
temperatures, the temperature forecast towards the end of the end of
the forecast period remains shrouded in uncertainty. Model guidance
generally agrees that the synoptic weather pattern will remain
active for the duration of the long term forecast period, with
multiple frontal passages and multiple rounds of rain likely.
However, the individual members of the currently available guidance
suite continue to resolve the amplitude and timing of the finer-
scale disturbances responsible for this active weather quite
differently. This corresponds with a sizable increase in model
spread early next week, with upwards of 15 degrees difference
between the 25th and 75th quartiles of MaxT/MinT guidance for
Tuesday and beyond. Given this uncertainty, the baseline NBM data
was retained for the majority of the long term forecast grids, with
a few key exceptions.

The first deviation from NBM guidance comes at the very beginning of
the forecast period, when the forecast area will be positioned in
between a broad surface high over the SE CONUS and a strong Canadian
low pressure system. A tightening pressure gradient will allow
persistent southwesterly surface flow to strengthen throughout the
day on Saturday, and the NBM is known to under-do winds and gusts in
these southwesterly return flow set-ups. As such, and in
coordination with neighboring NWS offices, Saturday`s forecast winds
and wind gusts were nudged upwards. Sustained winds are forecast to
range from 10 mph in sheltered valleys to 25 mph in the more exposed
portions of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Gusts could
approach the 30 to 40 mph range on Saturday afternoon if efficient
mixing is realized. BUFKIT momentum transfer forecast model
soundings from around the forecast area depict wind gusts in this
range, as do the means of the GEFS and EPS ensembles.
Probabilistically speaking, the EPS resolves a greater than 90%
chance of wind gusts in excess of 25 mph on Saturday afternoon and a
60-80% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph. However, there are a few
limiting factors in place, such as lingering morning cloud coverage
and a stout temperature inversion aloft in the column. The
antecedent AM clouds could result in shallower mixing depths than
what is currently depicted in NAM and GFS momentum transfer
soundings. This would decrease the magnitude of the wind gusts
realized at the surface, and it is plausible that the stronger wind
gusts remain elevated on Saturday afternoon. Nevertheless, interests
should still plan for potential impacts from gusty winds in excess
of 25 mph to outdoor events, tents, and holiday decorations on
Saturday.

Regardless of exact wind speeds, the persistence of that
southwesterly low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm to near
or just above 70 degrees on Saturday afternoon. This is 10 to 15
degrees warmer than climatological averages for mid-November in
Eastern Kentucky. The widespread cloud cover on Saturday could
mitigate diurnal warming and keep temperatures below the 70 degree
mark, but efficient low level WAA should be able to overcome this.
Rain chances increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Saturday
evening, and the timing of that front does not currently align well
with diurnal warming. Modeled instability is scant on Saturday
night, but frontal forcing and marginally supportive kinematics
aloft could combine to produce a few locally strong wind gusts in
any organized pre-frontal rain showers. The Storm Prediction Center
agrees that severe weather is unlikely in the Commonwealth on
Saturday; they removed Eastern Kentucky from both the Marginal
Severe and General Thunder categories in their afternoon update to
the Day 3 Outlook. The moisture return from this SW flow also
appears marginal, with LREF Ensemble Mean PWATs peaking around 1
inch immediately ahead of the boundary. This is largely due to the
fact that the flow aloft on Saturday will remain more west-
northwesterly and advect a modified continental airmass into much of
the column. Thus, any activity on Saturday night looks to come in
the form of generic light rain showers.

Light rain chances will continue into Sunday morning as FROPA
occurs. Confidence in the timing of this first system has increased
relative to this time yesterday, giving credence to the idea that
Sunday`s sensible weather forecast will be dominated by a clearing
and cooling trend. Surface winds will shift to the west-northwest
behind the frontal passage, and paired with the persistence of NW
flow aloft, they will advect a drier continental airmass into the
region. This means that temperatures will be noticeably cooler by
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Forecast MaxTs (mid 50s to low
60s)are 10 to 15 degrees lower than the day prior, and Sunday night
looks to feature ridge-valley temperature splits. These terrain-
induced temperature differences are the second key deviation from
the baseline NBM guidance in the long term forecast period.
Temperatures are forecast to cool off into the 30s area-wide on
Sunday night, but the deeper and more sheltered valleys are poised
to dip below freezing. During the daytime hours on Monday, a passing
surface high pressure system will keep conditions mostly clear and
seasonably cool. Overnight ridge-valley splits are possible once
again headed into Tuesday, but this is the time frame in which
confidence in forecast details falls off.

Early next week, the parent upper-level synoptic features
responsible for the weekend activity are forecast to propagate east
and deamplify. This will place Kentucky within a regime of quasi-
zonal flow aloft for much of the next work week, and guidance points
towards a baroclinic zone setting up by Tuesday morning. As
shortwave impulses navigate through this flow aloft and their
surface frontal reflections approach the region, additional
precipitation chances enter the forecast. The first of these
boundaries, a warm front, is expected to approach the area on Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Cloud cover is forecast to spread into
the region overnight, arriving in Northeastern KY last. Before skies
cloud up, the sheltered valleys in the Big Sandy Basin may be able
to decouple, which would result in forecast lows dropping below
baseline NBM temperature guidance. If that came to fruition,
localized pockets of freezing rain cannot be ruled out on Tuesday
morning. The probability of this occurring is rather low at this
moment in time, but Monday afternoon dewpoints in the 20s/near 30
and Coop MOS guidance suggest that this potential will need to be
monitored as timing details become clearer. Because there is 6-7
degrees of standard deviation in the forecast temperature guidance
for early next week, this was not mentioned in the forecast grids.
Likewise, the thunderstorm chances in the baseline deterministic NBM
data on Monday night were removed, as atmospheric profiles look
stable and cool. These weather grid changes are the third key
deviation from the deterministic NBM in the long-term forecast
package, albeit with much lower confidence than the first two.

Regular rain chances remain in the forecast for the daytime hours on
Tuesday, as temperatures should quickly warm up into the 40s and 50s
via post-frontal southerly/southwesterly winds and warm air
advection. Guidance has trended towards shortwave ridging and thus
decreasing rain chances on Wednesday, but another system looks to
approach the area late in the week. Once again, that system is
shrouded in uncertainty, and confidence in forecast details is
degraded at this temporal range. In general, expect an active
weather pattern to continue into next week, with near-normal
temperatures. Interests should continue to monitor for forecast
updates as guidance moves closer to a consensus, model spread
decreases, and then confidence subsequently increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

Surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions overhead through
the period. Mostly clear skies, light and variable winds are
largely anticipated overnight. However, an approaching weak
disturbance is expected to bring increasing and lowering CIGS
toward 18Z but no reduction in category is expected. Ahead of the
disturbance, winds are forecast to increase slightly but largely
remaining under 10 knots but a few gusts up to 15 knots will be
possible at KLOZ, KSME and KSYM through 00Z. LLWS will be possible
for the end of the TAF window as another disturbance approaches
the area.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST