265
FXUS63 KJKL 141241
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
841 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.

- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

Fog is beginning to lift out of the valleys at mid-morning. While
skies are clear across most of the area, a stratus deck is
drifting into the Big Sandy from the northeast. These clouds will
continue spreading southwest, but should also gradually break up
with diurnal heating. Sky cover forecast has been updated to
reflect the latest expectations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

Analysis of the latest surface map indicates several significant
disturbances are impacting the CONUS. The first is an occluded
surface low pressure system tracking northward along the Atlantic
Seaboard. The second is an occluding surface low situated over the
Hudson Bay vicinity of central Canada. Extending south-southwesterly
from the center of this system is a cold front, which is currently
traversing the Great Lakes and extending back toward the Ozark
Mountains before merging with another synoptic feature tracking
eastward from Colorado. Locally, surface high pressure is dominant,
resulting in clear skies and, consequently, promoting the formation
of locally dense river valley fog.

Surface high pressure will persist overhead today, supported by
dominant upper-level ridging. With ridging prevailing throughout the
day, the advance of the aforementioned dry cold front will be
suppressed and therefore will remain north of the CWA confined to
the Ohio Valley. Surface flow is generally out of the northeast,
veering to the northwest aloft. This pattern will advect cooler
temperatures into the region, resulting in mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. As the upper-level trough
responsible for the Canadian low tracks southeastward, upper-level
flow will become northwesterly and advecting cooler air into the
area. Consequently, overnight temperatures will be cool, with lows
dipping into the mid to upper 40s. Areas of locally dense river
valley fog will again be possible tonight.

Surface high pressure is forecast to remain present through
Wednesday. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected
throughout the day, with high temperatures forecast to climb into
the low to mid 70s. However, the progression of the upper-level
trough and its associated jet streak will overcome the mean flow
Wednesday afternoon. This will force the dry cold front through the
area late in the short-term period (Wednesday night) and into the
start of the long-term window.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

The long-term window commences with the passage of the dry cold
front across the CWA, driven by an upper-level trough and its
associated jet streak migrating from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-
Atlantic. Cold, high pressure will build into the region behind the
frontal boundary, maintaining dry conditions and ushering in cooler
temperatures as persistent northwesterly flow continues overhead.

While cooler temperatures will persist through Thursday night, upper-
level height rises will move in from the southwest beginning Friday
morning. This pattern will usher in a brief warm-up as the region
becomes sandwiched between the departing trough to the east and an
approaching trough from the west. This transient ridging is expected
to remain in place from Friday morning through Saturday morning. As
this ridge breaks down, southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching
trough will develop, advecting warmer temperatures into the region.
However, the approaching trough will simultaneously bring an
increased probability of showers and thunderstorms beginning
Saturday afternoon.

The upper-level trough is forecast to drive a surface low through
the Great Lakes, causing the associated cold front to slowly
approach the CWA from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage Saturday night and persist through FROPA on
Sunday afternoon. While some convection could produce locally heavy
rainfall, significant hydrologic issues are not anticipated due to
the antecedent dry conditions experienced over the preceding days.
Post-frontal, surface high pressure will quickly return and dominate
the remainder of the forecast period.

Accompanying the active long-term pattern, temperatures are expected
to exhibit significant variability. Highs will begin in the upper
60s to low 70s on Thursday, climbing significantly into the low 80s
ahead of the approaching front on Saturday. Post-frontal high
temperatures will settle back into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows beginning Wednesday night will drop into the low to
upper 40s. Even colder temperatures are expected Thursday night,
with lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s, with upper 30s
values possible in favorable areas. Temperatures will quickly
rebound Friday night due to warm air advection ahead of the
approaching frontal system. Lows are forecast to bottom out in the
50s for Friday and Saturday nights. However, following the frontal
passage on Sunday, post-frontal lows will plunge into the upper 30s
for Sunday and Monday nights, with a slow moderation beginning
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025

While locally dense river valley fog is present on night-fog
satellite channels; fog isn`t impacting any of the 5 main TAF
sites as the remain VFR with this TAF issuance. Fog will gradually
burn off in the next couple of hours but hi-res guidance
continues to show MVFR CIGS developing this afternoon and
impacting KJKL, KLOZ, KSJS and KSYM from 18Z through around
00Z/Wednesday before becoming SKC. Northeasterly winds sustained
less than 10 knots is expected but an occasional gust to 15 knots
at KLOZ and KSME can`t be ruled out.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST